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SE Blizzards

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Posts posted by SE Blizzards

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Just a quick reminder just how spectacularly wrong the ECM can be at Day 10....

     

    Here is what the ECM was predicting on Nov 8th for Day 10

     

    ECH1-240.GIF?12

     

     

     

    If i remember correctly, one or two (me included if i'm honest) were getting a little excited.

     

    But..... the actually chart that verified for that day....

     

    ECH1-0.GIF?12

     

    Completely and utterly wrong!

     

    Of course, this is just one example, but to be honest there have been many many more examples like that which have happened over the last few months with regards to this model. Like Nick S said earlier, it really has been all over the place in it's predictions way out in la la land for quite some time now, and that's why i'd be very wary of what it is showing in FI. It may be the 'daddy' when it comes to weather models, but just like the rest of them, it does have it's flaws.

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    GEFS are surprisingly looking good for a decent shot of cold on Xmas day, the North defo in for a chance of snow. Heights piling into Greenland also.

    In fact, they are amazing. All is not lost with many showing -6 or colder uppers heading in.

     

    Yep, best set of Ens we've seen all Winter by the looks of things.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

     

    Lots of 'potential' there.

     

    Just when you thought it was a done deal.

    At least we can look forward to tomorrow now with a little interest  :)

    • Like 4

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Always seem to be a certain few willing to knock that model and if you've followed it's output as close as I have then what you have posted is a rogue run, back in mid-November for a short period regular blocking was being shown on various runs and quite regularly (particularly in Jan/Feb) but as the weeks have passed the model has generally dropped such scenario's and unfortunately continued with the Azores/near continent to the SE High pressure cell whilst at other times a low pressure dominated theme.

     

    By the way nothing vindictive in my prior post towards yourself - just making a point :)

     

    We'll have to agree to disagree, because like i said, i have seen quite a few 'blocked' February charts.

     

    Anyway, let's leave it there.

     

    Merry Christmas  8)  8)

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Yeah but isn't that just from the 18z run of that particular day? - I've seen many a run on the 9 month model which shows nothing of the sort - I think your just cherry picking so you can hold a grudge against the model!

     

    Well, we must of been viewing it differently then because i have seen quite a few blocked charts from the CFS as of late. Especially February. And i hope it continues that way because there is nobody who would love to see a blocked last two thirds of Winter more than me.

     

    And i'm not one for holding a grudge at all, so your suggestion of me holding a grudge against a LR model is laughable.

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    RE the CFS, I had noticed that the HLB signal for January had disappeared over the past week (to be replaced with something akin to what we have now). I wonder if this is the reason?

     

     

    Hi CC.

     

    Ironically, since you said about the disappearing signal of HLB for January i have kept an eye on the CFS, and to be honest HLB for january has come back quite strongly in it's last few updates.

     

    Here's the most recent update for January...

     

    cfsnh-4-1-2015.png?18

     

     

     

    And just for fun, here's February...

     

    cfsnh-4-2-2015.png?18

     

    :D  :D

    • Like 11

    Winter 2014-15 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Don't believe it sorry, he seems like a Corbyn or a Madden, don't care how much he knows about weather! I only know the basics, and I am going for a wet/windy Xmas, mm wonder who will be closer

     

    Ermmm... Gavin P is not 'forecasting' a bitterly cold xmas/new year, he is clearly just showing and commenting on what the CFS is showing!!!

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Disagree on first sentence (I recall well the persistent zonal & routinely deeply cyclonic signature it accurately offered almost every run!) but largely subscribe to your second point!

     

    There we have it, from the horses mouth so to speak.

     

    Anything past 14 days (10 at a push in my book) is not worth worrying about. 

    I can never understand those who get so hooked up and worried when LR models (especially seasonal ones) show no sign of cold.

     

    Anyway, looking at the 18Z gefs at Day 10 there is just enough there to keep coldies at least a 'little' interested.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

     

    We're only at the very start of Winter 2014/15, so onwards and upwards i say.

    • Like 3

    Winter 2014-15 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Gavin P has issued his Winter 2014/15 forecast. 

     

    If you haven't the time to watch the whole video, the Main headlines are:

     

    Relatively mild first half of Winter, then becoming progressively colder into the second half.

    Overall UK probably slightly milder than average, but significantly colder than last Winter.

    Maybe a blocked pattern emerging later on after a mid Winter SSW, which should allow much more prolonged cold for February.

    Snowfall close to average, but there maybe more during the 'fighting' of December and particularly January than in February, when the overall pattern turns cold and blocked.

    A very interesting Winter on the way with something for everyone if this forecast is correct.

     

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