DanDorsetUK

Well according to Anthony Masiello the downwelling is about to hit. Maybe there is a surprise coming yet?

Looking at those latest tweets about the SSW downwelling this could be the reason we keep seeing good signs in fi charts. Obviously the models know the SSW has accured but maybe quite simply getting the downwelling time respose wrong or trying to second guess when this happens?

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Looking at the radar I think the storm may have actually slowed myself and it's not in the correct position.

Just went on to the current radar it looks way out to me!

How we all feel this morning!

Finally no downgrade for the 0z run!

Excellent idea! Make it so!

This is how I feel with the models at the moment.

I've said time and time again if people just stick to the 0z every day it would be more accurate and realsistic than going by extreme pub run solutions. One thing ive learnt over the years go with the model that shows the less extreme solution in the 0z! Then if that theme continues in 0z runs great then then start ramping if that particular weather event deserves a ramp. We have not had any extreme solutions in the 0z all winter. And reflects the pattern all we now have and see. For some weird reason people rave about the later day runs when in reality they get watered down nearer the time when the 0z has shown this the majority of the time anyway.

What is going on with 0z runs this question needs answering! Why does 0z runs always backtrack only for this to improve throughout the day? Is it actually programmed into the models? Is the 0z run actually the most reliable run or the 12z? Think this needs looking into cos I'm getting the feeling 0z is more reliable based on the fact were always chasing phantom eastilies in 12z runs.

Once the SSW begins to downwell later this week and the models pick this up I am pretty sure these charts will look totally different come the end of this week. From what I've read the models will not show SSW response untill it hits the trop. Very much still in game and some!

We're not in post SSW yet. From what I've read the SSW cool down begins this week which should push warmth into the Trop which hopefully will then produce northern blocking.

Have to agree even met office keep pushing back. Far to many misinterpretation of the charts too with one saying looks amazing yet the same chart another saying looks dreadful. But end end of the day fi is just that FANTASY. Anything can happen yet though and I'm not ruling anything out till end of Feb.

Have to admit I'm totally shocked with what we have on offer at the moment. There was high expectations given all the background signals this winter and absolutely nothing to show for it. For me though I've learnt a BIG lesson this year not to trust the background signals or get overly excited when there is sudden reason to ramp and then nothing happens. Will take everything with a very large pinch of salt in the future now and will certainly keep expectations to a minimum. Think we can all learn a good lesson from all this not to get to carried away over certain events and output.

I think this is 100% the best way forward it keeps people's expectations grounded and stops the over ramping with evening runs that rarely materialise. Then if the same runs are actually showing the same on the 0z then it's time to ramp!

Can someone explain to me why the 0z runs ALWAYS backtrack only for it to improve throughout the day? This always seems to happen. Is it lack of overnight data or what? Or is it the 0z is actually the more accurate run that we should just stick to for sanity sakes?

This from Forecaster Helen Roberts. Her comments were about the ssw: “That is why it is feeling much colder this week than before, and towards the middle of the month it will make conditions much more changeable, with more freezing fog patches and rain. “While it is technically possible that Beast from the East-style heavy snowfall will return, we just don’t know yet whether it will happen.” So I guess they have no clue where this is going to go as much as we don't.

To be perfectly honest reading about the moans about the gfs but going by the met office update it's the only model that's been pretty much bang on! Lol

Well after just getting home and reading that update I'm giving up model watching. What is the point of looking at models with everything going on. Clearly Glosea can see things us mortals can't. Not good at all.

Could be a good run this shrunken pv and shifting east.

The block formation near the UK is getting the green light from the strat above. Once the Pacific to N. America flow slows down and buckles, the direction of wave breaking in the Atlantic will shift equatorward. That's when the NAO tanks. Look at @antmasiello posts on Twitter his posts are very informative!

This according to weather trending. The medium-range models may not be 'seeing' the SSW yet. It can take up to a couple of weeks for a stratospheric reversal to work its way down to Earth (if indeed it does). There's a blocking trend in models compared with a few days ago but possibly not SSW-related.

The temperature at 10hPa over the North pole seems a bit higher than expected, closing in to -10C whereas models only expected the peak temps in the North Pole to be around -20C. Also posted this in the strat thread but may get seen more here. Surely this is a good thing?

The temperature at 10hPa over the North pole seems a bit higher than expected, closing in to -10C whereas models only expected the peak temps in the North Pole to be around -20C. I take it this is good news?