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stainesbloke

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Everything posted by stainesbloke

  1. stainesbloke
    Yes, if that front stalls over the SE with those cold uppers moving in the ppn could well intensify for a few hours.
  2. stainesbloke
    Great post basically that is the deciding factor at this stage. We definitely want to see the second chart verify for extended cold, otherwise the Atlantic comes in quite quickly.
  3. stainesbloke
    With you regarding a quick breakdown, nothing worse than days of half melted slush and temps hovering just above freezing. Not sure about the ECM though...it may well be a mild outlier, we shall see.
  4. stainesbloke
    Cold uppers moving westwards each run of the GFS so hopefully much of the west will get to see some snow this coming week Fingers crossed.
  5. stainesbloke
    Lol, I bet it didn't I'm just commenting on what I see on the 18z GFS, by tomorrow could be showing cold for longer with any luck. I'm a little concerned with all that energy barrelling out of NE Canada...but it's proper FI so all to play for. Worst case it goes the same way as December this time next week but some great snow potential before then which I'm happy to see.
  6. stainesbloke
    Very interesting week to come for many areas, a return to zonal by next weekend though as modelled by the GFS tonight. I wonder if it will be that straightforward. Hopefully the heights to our NE can persist and angle favourably otherwise it's looking a lot like December.
  7. stainesbloke
    To be fair snow wasn't ever really widely forecast for the South on Sat, especially at lower levels. Not to say it won't happen, though I reckon it will be a mainly rain event.
  8. stainesbloke
    So when is the tipping point? From past experience (have been weather watching since the 80s) it's t24 for me regarding snowfall. Even less at times. Some good potential showing for sure but the first snow event is over 3 days away still.
  9. stainesbloke
    Looking better I agree but 'set in stone'? How many times have I read those words on here only for things to go pear shaped. Lets calm the hysteria down and keep the analysis going please.
  10. stainesbloke
    Me too, a few days of cold and snow would be loads better than what we have endured for much of the winter so far.
  11. stainesbloke
    Indeed, so much uncertainty. We need that jet going south and the cold should then become entrenched across the UK. Some potential for large snowfall totals I reckon.
  12. stainesbloke
    In a word, yes. Although until the jet actually decides which way it's going to go we won't know with any degree of certainty and with the SSW filtering in things will no doubt change again.
  13. stainesbloke
    Strength and direction of the jet stream will be the deciding factor here, hopefully it will move S and not NE as shown by the 6z.
  14. stainesbloke
    I'm not surprised, though with effects of the SSW filtering in there should be quite big changes in model output from day to day. Something to keep an eye on anyway.
  15. stainesbloke
    Not been posting much because of posts like this. The forums are for people to post opinions on future output not get involved in silly arguments etc etc. Funny how the ECM now going for mild in a week, just shows how ridiculous it is getting overexcited and overhyping any charts over t96. We will see more changes, as things stand now looks like a week of cold and snow potential then a return to milder conditions.
  16. stainesbloke
    Quite possibly, though fairly slowly and with some frontal snow IMHO. Hopefully this won't be a window for milder air to come in.
  17. stainesbloke
    Exactly! Potential abounds for sure but so does the possibility of it turning milder next week. When it's snowing outside I'll get excited, til then I'm staying very cautious.
  18. stainesbloke
    Yes, I think I would based on events this winter. I'm not saying the other models are rubbish or having a go at anyone's views. Just expressing an opinion/feeling but if I'm wrong I've no problem saying so
  19. stainesbloke
    Everyone is bringing up Decembers fail because its all happening again. Agree that it's a different setup but a mild outlook looks increasingly likely in the medium term to me with snow potential for this weekend downgrading too. Not what I'd like to see of course! But am keeping my feet firmly planted rather than get carried away.
  20. stainesbloke
    Agree. The GFS appears to be handling things far better than the other models this winter, just like in December. Any SSW effects will take longer to show up I reckon but for the medium term I'd say it will be a return to milder conditions.
  21. stainesbloke
    Oh God here we go....somebody get me some rope lol
  22. stainesbloke
    I'm definitely not an experienced forecaster but I'd suggest rain is more likely in S Wales initially as it is further from the cold air coming in from the E.
  23. stainesbloke
    Ok I'm probably being overly cautious, the ECM is going the right way again, very interested to see what the GFS will be modelling this evening. Like you say if good then I'll relax a little lol...
  24. stainesbloke
    Bit premature, really. ECM t120 is finely balanced and could well change drastically after that. Hoping it won't but good to be cautious.
  25. stainesbloke
    Not totally conviced by the GFS yet though....might just be hopecasting but the background signals are different to December. If I see snow cover this weekend and it lasts 48 hours then thats miles better than nothing at all
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