stainesbloke

Like your optimism Hoping for SOME sign of Atlantic weakening as today's runs have been quite poor for cold. Actually I'm hoping the Russian high buggers off east, letting the Atlantic in for a bit then opening the door to the north.

Wonder what some people on here would do if something seriously bad happened to them? Week 2 of winter and its all over already....yeah right, grow up! It obviously never snows in Jan-Feb lol...

Disagree, still think there is potential. Please stop posting vile charts deep in FI, it's not gonna happen!

Yes, unfortunately colder than average doesn't mean snow. So far Dec has not followed normal patterns, some areas have seen significant snowfall which is unusual for this early in winter. Plenty of time to get more favourable synoptics, with blocking patterns remaining in some form. Keep optimistic

True, it is frustrating and a let-down if you want cold/snow (which I really do) but it looks like its not our time to get that just now. Teaches us all to regard chart outputs as possibilities not something 'nailed on'...I've seen things go pear shaped more times than I can remember, but also seen things go right unexpectedly many times too! With cold remaining in Europe who knows? Jan/Feb could be good, don't get too down about it.

Most definitely. Blocking trends can be picked up quite far in advance but its the details which are pretty much unforecastable until very close to the event itself. As we know the details changing can have big implications for the UK...some interesting weather coming up though I haven't got a clue as to exactly what!

Don't necessarily agree, the cold stays close to our east on the runs so any low pressure moving further south than expected could allow the cold in. I don't think we will know til Wednesday!

Big result! Not massively likely just yet but with 5 days to go til the breakdown, who knows? These types of model scenarios were a lot more common back in the late 70s and through the 80s, when we ended up with a lot of snowfall on many occasions. I'm keeping expectations low to avoid getting carried away lol.

Yes, each run seems to favour the cold block that little bit more. Still 5 days away so the details will change but it doesn't look like a clean sweep by the Atlantic by any means. Great time to be model watching! Even if we don't see exactly what we want.

The models show increased chances of easterly winds returning after next weekend. The high over Scandinavia/W Russia doesn't want to go anywhere fast...indeed the mild incursion could well drastically change in the next few days. Fascinating stuff, good to see the forum getting back to actual model discussion.

Not helped by people massively over ramping about charts a week away.

Because that's what this country usually experiences: mild, westerly dominated weather. NW Europe has a MILD, MARITIME climate all year round. Extremes of any sort are the exception. Plus weather from the East is particularly difficult to pinpoint to any degree of accuracy. That's why basing opinions on charts in FI is always a gamble. People should know better....but then they'd be earning a nice wage working at the MO!

Could be a lot worse, less of the doom and gloom! Freezing, snowy Decembers are quite rare, plus we are only in week 2 of winter, hardly a 'write-off'. Think the mild possibility has been overplayed but its a case of wait and see.

Really. You could be living out of a cardboard box, have to walk 10 miles for water or be dying of cancer. I think a less favourable run of weather charts doesn't quite compare.

Quite! Even in that mega winter there were some milder blips. Next week looks very interesting, especially next weekend.....keep that low from coming too far north and we should see a bitter easterly flow with some heavy snow in the south. Yah!

Still WAY better than overcast, windy and mild.

I remember it well, too. Interestingly, that clip showed recored high temps across the NE of the USA at the time....Washington DC hit 22C two days ago....some similarities showing already?

I'm getting quite excited by the charts now It's pointless worrying about where will get snow or rain, the main thing is the trend to keep high pressure to our N-NE for the foreseeable future allowing ever colder uppers to move over the UK. The SW will always be at most risk from the Atlantic but that can (and has many times in the past) result in some great battle-ground scenarios. These situations are probably the hardest to predict in our country. Encouraging signs are that high pressure stays strong to our N right through to the end of the model runs, which to me indicates any possible Atlantic incursions will be short-lived. Only time will tell I guess!

Often on an easterly there are quite sudden trough developments moving westwards that can dump inches of snow inland, it's happened quite a few times that I can remember. Tomorrow I reckon it will be more of a rain event in the south at least, could be wrong tho!

Good to see model upgrades instead of the usual downgrades! Quite excited now, although that could be due to the snow coming down Hopefully the charts can keep the theme going today.

Looks like lamppost watch tomorrow then Unfortunately we live in an area that is often the last place to see snow, we need some really cold air to dig in. It's very possible IMHO, I reckon it's going to be a while longer tho. Still, pretty good charts for the beginning of winter...plus much of Europe now is getting cold.

Liking those precip charts a lot!!

The roller coaster ride continues, I think I'm a bit worn out lol Can't make much sense from the charts at the moment, I respect those who can see the trends and are sticking to their guns. It looks like Europe will be getting chilly very soon which is a big boost to our cold potential. Have a feeling it's going to take a while to get here though. Looking at signs in Nature (waxwings, berries, squirrels gorging themselves) am quite hopeful of a decent Winter arriving soon!

Definitely! Cold and snow are always really difficult to forecast in the UK. I've been enjoying the model output over the last few weeks, it's good to be getting a normal early winter rather than just raging south westerlies I reckon the next few weeks will be interesting for sure, I just hope the chances of proper cold are not continually shunted into FI.

Well we are still chasing the possibility of cold in the next couple of weeks.....was doing that 2 weeks ago and so far there has been nothing more than normal early Winter weather, at least here in the SE. I like that the charts keep pointing to a blocked scenario but that's still quite a long way from snow/deep cold over the UK. The shorter term looks more interesting IMO, anything after 5 days is anyone's guess.