stainesbloke

No, the GFS shouldn't be discounted, look what happened in Dec.Many were saying the GFS always overcooks lows/is overly aggressive with the Atlantic etc etc....and thats exactly what happened. Background signals this time are different though which gives me some hope of a greater chance of cold.

Me too, really hoping for some decent snow/cold (even a week of it), gut feeling says couple days max though. Have a feeling might see more cold in Feb.

Or the rapid return to mild next week, as the case may be. I don't know how anyone can claim to know what will happen next week with all the model uncertaintly going on. Could be another rerun of December coming up? Really hope not as I'm so bored of mild/cloudy/damp.

LOL....love this, its exactly whats been happening on here this Winter.

But it's a week away! Which means it will most likely change.

All I can see from the charts is a pattern change away from mild/zonal, don't know how people seem to know exactly what's going to happen deep in FI and why bother posting charts showing how much snow we will get in a fortnight etc etc...doesn't help my learning and gets boring. I thought ramping/depressed posts were for another thread? After Decembers melodrama I think I'm just going to keep checking charts and not bother with the comments

I'm fascinated with this quite sudden change to cold, especially as last week it looked like zonal for a few more weeks. Just shows how FI charts are really just for interest. Hoping for cold/lots of snow but am not getting excited until t24....if it gets that close

The next 5 or so days look mild, after that its anyone's guess, I don't think writing off the next two and a half months is being very realistic. We usually get our coldest weather in late Jan and Feb. I'd be very surprised if this winter was mild and wet all the way through.

Then stay on the pavement or wear wellies, problem sorted

Winter so far has been quite good I reckon. Had some snow, freezing fog, one ice day already, beautiful hoar frost and lots of sun. This milder weather won't last forever but I'm not that bothered, means Christmas won't be ruined by people getting stranded in snow and accidents caused by countless idiots driving like maniacs. Bring on the cold in Jan/Feb, best months for it to last and be of a decent quality.

Great post! Anything could happen after Xmas. No need for depression just yet IMHO.

No, there isn't a caste iron reason why January is going to be dire....its all guesswork, no chart goes past New Year atm. The models are saying milder for the next week with Atlantic dominated weather but after that they don't all point the same way. If the charts can flip so massively like they did last week they can do it again. I'm not saying they will, just that they can....and with most of winter still to come nothing is certain.

Just bad luck this time more than anything else. The blocked trend was correct although we were just too far away to really benefit. As always the details in these scenarios are difficult to forecast and subject to massive changes. I disagree that this always happens though, it works out in our favour sometimes too, plus we are in week 2 of winter so half of winter is certainly not ruined just yet. Small changes in future outputs will result in big changes for us so one to keep an eye on. By the way its currently -3 at midday where I am with freezing fog, if thats not winter, dunno what is!

Lol...love the Bush! I'm still hopeful of cold/snow by Christmas...each run edging lows further S/SW, not by a great deal but its movement in the right direction.

Actually witnessed this whilst sledging 2 years ago, a group of local pikeys were using a racing boat. Worked ok til it started spinning half way down the hill throwing most of the people out

Like your optimism Hoping for SOME sign of Atlantic weakening as today's runs have been quite poor for cold. Actually I'm hoping the Russian high buggers off east, letting the Atlantic in for a bit then opening the door to the north.

Wonder what some people on here would do if something seriously bad happened to them? Week 2 of winter and its all over already....yeah right, grow up! It obviously never snows in Jan-Feb lol...

Disagree, still think there is potential. Please stop posting vile charts deep in FI, it's not gonna happen!

Yes, unfortunately colder than average doesn't mean snow. So far Dec has not followed normal patterns, some areas have seen significant snowfall which is unusual for this early in winter. Plenty of time to get more favourable synoptics, with blocking patterns remaining in some form. Keep optimistic

True, it is frustrating and a let-down if you want cold/snow (which I really do) but it looks like its not our time to get that just now. Teaches us all to regard chart outputs as possibilities not something 'nailed on'...I've seen things go pear shaped more times than I can remember, but also seen things go right unexpectedly many times too! With cold remaining in Europe who knows? Jan/Feb could be good, don't get too down about it.

Most definitely. Blocking trends can be picked up quite far in advance but its the details which are pretty much unforecastable until very close to the event itself. As we know the details changing can have big implications for the UK...some interesting weather coming up though I haven't got a clue as to exactly what!

Don't necessarily agree, the cold stays close to our east on the runs so any low pressure moving further south than expected could allow the cold in. I don't think we will know til Wednesday!

Big result! Not massively likely just yet but with 5 days to go til the breakdown, who knows? These types of model scenarios were a lot more common back in the late 70s and through the 80s, when we ended up with a lot of snowfall on many occasions. I'm keeping expectations low to avoid getting carried away lol.

Yes, each run seems to favour the cold block that little bit more. Still 5 days away so the details will change but it doesn't look like a clean sweep by the Atlantic by any means. Great time to be model watching! Even if we don't see exactly what we want.

The models show increased chances of easterly winds returning after next weekend. The high over Scandinavia/W Russia doesn't want to go anywhere fast...indeed the mild incursion could well drastically change in the next few days. Fascinating stuff, good to see the forum getting back to actual model discussion.