Weather-history

Thursday evening looks interesting for parts of NW England on GFS 12Z. An area of sub -4 CAPE, maxima into the 20+Cs and high dewpoints. Thunderstorms?

Cells fire up very quickly. Anvil to SW of my location.

Pretty active today around here with torrential rain, thunder and lightning at times.

Summer Index up to 242, not seen a value that high since 2006

One word: hot 3rd August 2003

This, beautiful sunny.

Saw lightning from the cell to my west. Distant thunder, a few seconds later.

Indeedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXs4ZDQ6Qlc

Carlisle according to weatheronline has had 49mm in the last 6 hours. Any campers in the Lake District got and are still getting a serious soaking.

There were some joke predictions last night in this thread. We were told that NW England would probably record the least amount of rain, we were told that nowhere would record more than 15mm from this even though some stations had already had before the time of post was made. We were told it was going tits up before it even got started despite the models said it was going to get heavier as the night went on. Predictions not based on fact but based on how many toys were thrown out of the pram. I rather give 82 million to professionals than some of the tantrum, histrionics that were around yesterday evening.

27th July 2003

It's weird, it's not like you suddenly get a heavier burst, it's a gradual process. It has got heavier and heavier. You can tell because the noise of the rainfall is getting louder and louder.

Already have been reports over 15mm!

The rain is gradually getting heavier and heavier here.

Looks a washout tonight especially if gets even heavier.

To my naked eye, the rain on the western flank seems to be getting heavier on the radar.

Rain falling now. It seems to be moving NWwards on the radar the heavy stuff or it is developing giving that impression.

It certainly is when tantrum throwing and throwing the toys out of the pram overtakes rational thought. We can't judge until after the event. This region was never under a real threat from the thunder but more so from the rain. We won't know the results until it has passed through.So lets get a grip for gawd sake people!

I doubt it, since parts of Cornwall have missed it. The models shows the rain getting heavier as the night goes on. So too early to judge.

Summer 1994 was a very good one for heat and thunder especially July. SE England had a spectacular storm on 24th June 1994

It might do going off the experience NW England has had with amber warnings.

20th July 2003

13th July 2003

Yes, forget the thunder and lightning potential, the rain intensity is serious on its own and deserves more attention. GFS has been consistent with and the general area it affects.

I don't know but that is quite notable assuming GFS is correct and doesn't seem to be getting more of the attention it warrants to be honest.