hammy

Sorry to go off topic, but I was just wondering if anyone could point in the right direction.. I have always been interested in the goings on with the stratosphere and how it effects our weather, could anyone give me any direction to where I could read about it please? Again sorry to go off topic but I wasn't sure where else to put this! Cheers Hammy

Coastal ares generally aren't great spots for wintry weather, having said that what i was trying to make the point of is that the general trend. The trend being that as the event closes into the reliable time frame the marginality issues are being upgraded, hopefully the 12z carry on this trend and the coastal areas are involved into the fun and games. Frustraing yes, but im only trying to give a guidance on what the charts are saying If i could have it my way this country would be covered in feet of snow for the whole of winter! Unfortunately unless the gulf stream stops that isn't likely, so we just take what is on offer!

The below charts illustrate my point further, with the cold mix in, I expect precipitation(albeit light) to fall as snow, this trend has continued now for about 7 consecutive runs I believe, so yes, the precip maybe light, but it would still fall as snow, accumulations very possible

Can understand your caution... but I have a feeling that as the higher resolution models get into a the reliable time frame then we could see some upgrades when they start to factor in surface cold etc, just a thought! I could be wrong but that's the fun of it all!

moderate snow here aswell Nice to see that the uppers have finally arrived! even though its only going to be a short lived shower, its still lovely to look out the window and see that white stuff! Winter is here! and with the models delaying the breakdown run by run it can only be good news! My thoughts on the general picture is that if the trend continues for a slow break down, it can only help the chances of prolonged cold in the coming weeks, tuesday and weds are looking good for this region. And in the relams of FI pointing towards possible sliders and maybe a beasterly... I for one think that winter is not over... We shall see what the 12z brings...

Anyone fancy moving up to glenmore? https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1041193052579824 now that what I call snow!

Typical just as i go up north to uni, the fun and games happen for what would be my location! Ah well, i should get a dusting tonight with some luck! Enjoy if you get the showers!

Thankyou for the warm welcome I hope I can add input where I can, but I am still only 20 so apologises if I make mistakes but i still will try and give a level headed input even though I( like many on this forum) would be like to buried in snow! However, people need to remember that we live on a relatively small island and little changes can make a huge difference. Now on to tonights GFS 18Z, well what can I say apart from that it looks like it hasn't had enough beer to produce one of its stonker stella runs. with saying that, the uppers, even in the early timeframes are further east. This, combined with warm seas will spring showers out of nowhere with convection, bringing showers across out small part of the world. Yes, it doesn't look likely that the low will slide, its unfortunate but, to my eyes it would of caused a shallow easterly to only be toppled and put us back it to a westerly regime. short term, snow showers will occur starting tonight, its important for people not to get to worked up about the current synoptics because there is alot of winter left, plenty of chances to get sustained cold onto our shores. I read an intersting report earlier which suggest a colder set up progged for feb- caution advised, but it stands a chance. Chance being the key word when it comes to the weather! Lets us enjoy what is on offer, some low minima, frosts, and even falling snow! Not 2010 but also not a kick in the teeth, tomorrow is another day when it comes to the weather, and personally I am taking 72hrs as FI- 96hrs at a push! Hammy

Evening folks, been a bit of a lurker the past few months but now that the cold snap is starting I thought i would post.. I'm personally from birmingham but im currently studying in Manchester hence the post in this regional thread! hope you dont mind! Anyway on to later tonight, hopefully we will see some of those showers hitting inland and in heavier bursts some accumulations will appear locally. The uppers will be favourable and the ground temps should be cold enough for some of the snow that falls to last throughout the day. Today I have been compiling a few thoughts on what I think will happen over the next few days, and will post later on after a walk, I for sure do not think that this cold weather will be as short lived as some are making out, I expect further upgrades with regards to ppn, mixed in with the cold uppers I expect this to fall as snow. It is proving difficult to pin down the general trend because the ens are all over the place even in a relatively short time frame! Dont loose hope people, lets enjoy the cold that is coming! I for one would of defiantly snapped someones hand off if this was offered to us when in decemeber and early January it looked like the 'zonal train' The funs of winter in the UK eh!

Judging by the radar it looks I'm 20 miles away from the main area of precip, Still holding out for a few showers though!

Rain readily turning to snow now, and it sticking, went to have a look at the lickey and beacon hills, settling there too

This was a photo at half 5 this morning that i took at work! This was before the storm hit, was a very crazy and a very wet (i work at sainsburys and was putting stuff outside) half an hour or so! Lightening every few seconds it seemed

get the impression its calming down here

back to work tonight and typically its stormy once again Not a great night to be working outside, especially working with artic lorrys! Fun fun fun Wind really whipping up here, stay safe everyone!

temps on the rise..

I think we may scrape a couple of cm around here on relatively high ground of the lickey hills, increasing precipitation as it moves across land.. much like it did today, will be staying up i reckon

I suspect this is due to evap cooling in the heavier downpours? could be wrong as i am still just a rookie...

massive flakes here! about time this snow turned up!

Rain seems to be going just north of my location at the moment.. good news for me as im at work soon call me strange but I almost wish that this part was seeing high rainfall totals, with no rivers to flood, and being high up only big puddles would occur really.. im sure it wouldn't be as bad here if we had the same rainfall totals as what places like somerset are seeing the past few months! I do feel awfully sorry for them

Went to watch the pride of the midlands play football, and on the way the heavens litterally opened up! decent thunder and lightning, heavy hail and snow for a time! Unfortunatly for blues we were cheated out of it. again....

Very foggy here in longbridge!... looking through the 00z on my break at work, and to my untrained eye id say it was pretty close to the 18z? in high resolution anyway. into low res... and again, not bad, flirtations with milder interludes but those -5 uppers are never to far from our shores.. I would say that it is still game on, especially in the shorter time frames, obviously caution is needed. but with 2 gfs runs showing similar patterns I would say we are getting closer to some 'seasonal' weather shall we say. Will be interesting to see what today brings, not that I will see them till later because ill be asleep! Probably a good thing that I will be asleep today as I think there will be a few more ups and downs, and that mad(mod) thread gets very stressful for someone who is still learning! Have a great days ladies and gents! Edit: Actually id say the low res on this gfs is better than the previous run?

I am very much the amateur and still learning, but one positive sure would be from this chart would be that Europe is getting colder? so if an easterly flow did develop we could tap into that cold that is gradually building up? as i said i am still learning and that is just an observation

judging by the rain today radar loop at 01:00 something should be falling? sleety here in hall green Been told its more like snow in rubery though crazy what a few more m asl can do!

Sleeting here, with horrible gusts, I work nights on the back doors of a warehouse, tonight is not going to be pleasent in the slightest

I literally live about 10 miles away from your location and we have absolutely nothing!