hammy

just as i typed that its started to turn to proper snow!

Crazy what a 20 miles can do, snow in bolton, sleet here with a sodden mess on the floor

http://www.camvista.com/scotland/edinburgh/histedin_streaming.php3 meanwhile in scotland.....

snowing and sticking!

Just had a massive downpour of hail! winds really picked up aswell! lovely stuff

wait for it.... i do believe its snowing! Edit: or snizzle!

very heavy hail storm here and some strong gusts! interesting start to an interesting week! (at least)

Resisting temptation to explain to people why its not 'snowing properly' is hard! So ive had to sign out of twitter cant see if its snowing here or not, no flipping lamposts in student digs!

Well the day has finally arrived after much flipping and flopping! Even in to a such short term the front is behaving differently to its previous projections, defiantly a nowcast event. Metoffice have upgraded the snow for me, but for me its not about how much snow I get, I just like seeing everything white over with snow falling out of the sky! Something that I think most of us will see in this region. Areas that see the heaviest precip values will see accumulations not akin to the levels of previous winters but at least we will see something! Still plenty of winter to come as well, feb is statistically the coldest month of winter for the UK- heres hoping! We look to the magical realms of FI for pattern changes. Edit: as i post that- mucka posts the metoffice update! maybe I should just keep my mouth shut

Yep, just had a look at the post, good call id say I am still learning, but I do agree that the shortwave will give us most of what we see fall out of the sky! I do think that I could be here a little earlier than expected though- just my opinion! Like i say im still learning

Harldy moving yes But moving quicker than the nmm thought 12z update, this is for mightnight tonight- Now look at the radar image shown for 22:15- Could an albeit slight eastwards correction not be argued?

What ive found is at a closer range the longer range models such as the GFS ECM etc dont handle precipitaion values and track as well as the euro4 and nmm, they are run at a much higher resolution, so probably best to wait until they update But It worth saying that the gfs pushes things a little further east in my opinion, but not much change from the 12z

definitely a nowcasting event, looks to me as though the precip over ireland has made more progress than previously anticipated? looks 3 hours ahead of the NMM...

As the event gets into the closer timeframe personally i will be ignoring the GFS about where precip will fall and how much, its very rarely correct hence why I will be refering to the nmm and euro4 models. They both run at a much higher res and therefore the precip track will be more reliable, lets wait unitl the 12z for these said models update..

South mids could do especially well if the GFS is to be believed Might have to come home to "see the family"

- 12z - 18z To back my point up Hammy

Just how I see it- GFS brings more precip to region, with cold uppers than the previous run. Im at uni in manchester so its not even an IMBY post

18z GFS looking better for the midlands shorter term..

My guess would be is that because of the marginality and the chops and changes? If the met and beeb start saying its going to snow, the daily express/mail will only get hold of it earlier and scare monger the nation anyway!

I was talking about the NMM in the short term with regards to tues/weds snowfall as it copes much better than the GFS does in higher resolution. If you want more snow than the average UK climate offers then move or go on a holiday to the mountains during winter. And with regards to my comment about the GFS 12z I was talking about the general trend moving forward- after the event early this week.

Agreed, caution still needed. My thoughts are also, if that low stall 50 miles further north then it will put this region under more precipitation, could be wrong! Still learning, but I will be interested to see if this occurs.

From veiwing the NMM 12z run I would say that our chances have snow have been upgraded albeit slightly. It would only take a shift of 50 miles, to put us right in the heavier precipitation, wednesday into thursday the model suggests that the snow line will be 0m away from the coast, which further bodes well with my thoughts of the marginality issues further inland. At this moment in time at lower elevation around the coast the model is showing more of a wintry mix, but even this has been upgraded from the previous run. Baby steps but all in the right way, we will know alot more in the coming 24 hours I believe. Now im NOT saying we will be buried in snow, but what I do believe is that there will be enough for a snowball fight or 2! As for the flip from the models this evening... It is to be expected I think, with different signals cropping up stratospherically the models are bound to flip-flop, however as I keep stressing, FI for me starts at 96hrs, In my own viewing the GFS and UKMO have corrected the pattern west, this is what we want to see going forward. Just my thoughts Hammy

Sense a distinct lack of disappointment in here after the 12z runs, but surely one positive that we can take is that is that in the more reliable time frame (96hrs) the pattern has been shifted west, even the ukmo has come on board. It will be interesting to see what the ECM brings, but to me the GFS looks to progressive and I await further runs before throwing my toys out of the pram, the general pattern over the past few days has to prolong the cold, and this is the only run to have a blip, is it right? who knows, more runs are needed..

Didn't even cross my mind to look haha! Cheers!

Point taken