alexisj9
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Posts posted by alexisj9
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4 hours ago, Drifter said:
Some bizarrely positive posts this morning!
I think this morning’s runs are dreadful compared to last nights. The only crumb of comfort is the 00z runs are always over progressive.
Compared to last night, definitely much worse, compared to yesterday's 0z however, quite an improvement.
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Snowing in Dover again.
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39 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Funny how the Cold brigade were happy with the omnipresent low pressure out to the West during Summer/Autumn. Now they hate it. On the flip side. Quite looking forward to a wet and windy winter
I wouldn't have been if I lived somewhere that actually was cold and wet, where I was ended up average, and less wet than most areas, although still a little wetter than average.
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11 hours ago, PiscesStar said:
I live in herne bay. Shall I be looking excitedly at Sat evening/sunday morning with interest?
I hope you enjoyed your thunder snow earlier.
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17 hours ago, knocker said:
The dash to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear is now well underway
I've had some snow this evening, considering where I am, I'm happy now, and his spell actually delivered something, and it was unexpected, though only sleet at this time of year.
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Just finished, a nice surprise as not in the main line it looks like, hope some more comes this way.
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Actually landing on pavements, but not the road yet, gritted
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Mixture of ice pellets and snow here.
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Thames areas need to start another watch, showers incoming soon.
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6 hours ago, Jackski4 said:
I’m gonna go for a 17% chance just so I look more knowledgeable than you if it happens
6 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:They'll laugh in my face when I say a frosty morning can overpower a 250mph low pressure system holding 100 billion trillion tonnes of water.
True, but I'm not one hundred percent sure that's what's been said.
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7 hours ago, offerman said:
So far, it looks like the cold gets pushed out the way by Atlantic low pressure systems towards the middle part of next week.
One thing the GFS charts are good at seems to be highly accurate with forecasting mild wet and windy and low pressure systems, but it struggles with cold SynOptics and often Waters them down in longevity of cold snaps.
at the moment, it doesn’t look like we will get locked into any prolonged cold periods, judging by the charts, but there has been a lot of talk recently of a cold Christmas period leading up to New Year.
Looking better than yesterday's 00z then, as it was Sunday/Monday for most at that point.
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Well had something this morning early, but not sure if it was sleet or snow, something landed on cars.
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2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Mmmmm...mogreps 12z.
You can see that we look good for cold out too day 6...Take a little look and the clustering goes up towards milder conditions...but towards end of the run we seem to have a little support for a colder theme again..classic signs of the models not necessarily being convinced of it going milder,and more so of how long it will last.
The plot thickens.
Hmm, will look at the pressure ones rather than 850's, I think they might tell more.
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2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
This is some serious cold. Anomaly chart for temperature at 2 meter.
For my little corner France needs to join the blue.
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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:
It strikes me that there are 3 options with this Atlantic lows meet cold pool thing:
- The lows disrupt to form a train of small lows that can slide and follow a southerly jet and track south.
- A deeper low gets stalled on the approach to the cold air, and resulting WAA pumps up heights into Scandi (like ECM 12z).
- A deeper low barges straight through and obliterates the cold pool (at least as far as it affects the UK).
The third is the only one that carries the risk of fully unleashing the Atlantic subsequently.
We’ve been watching this for a while now, where’s your money?
Mines on one, but two could happen too., hopefully not 3 or at least not to the extent of the big storms on the GFS anyway.
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4 hours ago, Jackski4 said:
Keeps being pushed back.. thought I was the only one who noticed
Nope I've been quietly watching, obviously no one knows when the push backs re cold will stop, but I'm personally not taking anything past Sunday as nailed, and even Sunday will still have adjustments. It's just the nature of cold synoptics, they always have a high level of uncertainty. I do expect the Atlantic to have some influence, mostly in the south, but other than that, I'm not calling this cold spell over. The snow line will rise and fall, over the midla ds and the south I reckon, with the north staying cold for a while yet
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2 hours ago, Freeze said:
August was fine here, and I'm not too bothered about poor summer weather as its always at least warm 20c+
We never had a frost in the first place down here
that is the price of living by the sea!
Wow, we had one here.
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
One of the wilder GFS runs in recent times to sys the least with a marginal scenario working in our favour. I find it quite unlikely but imagine if it did come off, would be something of a spectacle.
It's a no thanks for me, my house needs a roof to be able to cope with faze two, the northerly wrap around cold.
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10 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Mods, could you organise an AI to summarise every 5 to 10 pages when things are busy. Easy to parse the comments and ask for a summary. Might be interesting and possibly useful. Just a thought as it’s hard to keep up
Perhaps the other models thread with the highlights in it?
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4963816-
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6 hours ago, nick sussex said:
The UKMO backtracking with how far north the first low gets .
Colder air now hangs on till Tuesday for most of the UK.
The GFS is similar . The GEM more progressive .
A few troughs shown on the fax charts and our interesting twig as in convergence zone shown across the far se at T48 hrs .
Wednesday's ones if those was all rain, hopefully things have cooled down a little noby then in the north sea, looks like we might find out.
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Got quite a thick frost here, so I guess that answers my question from earlier, or at least it doesn't look like there any ppn around for a while, channels stuff doesn't seem to be moving north, the line in the north is moving slowly south though, bit that might get here is in the north sea at the min, but hours away.
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Due to a change of forecast they are gritting here in Kent, all primary routes. Doesn't say more than that, so not sure if it's for snow frost or rain that turns to ice.
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10 minutes ago, Downburst said:
Mods, could you organise an AI to summarise every 5 to 10 pages when things are busy. Easy to parse the comments and ask for a summary. Might be interesting and possibly useful. Just a thought as it’s hard to keep up
Perhaps the other models thread with the highlights in it?
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2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
I agree! I'm a C girl! Never done F!
I remember years ago, the forecast always used to be in ⁰c apart from during a heat wave, when ⁰f was used lol. I'm talking when I was a kid.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by alexisj9
10 years ago, 2013, I beg to differ, we'll actually it was in march, but down here it was a classic.