[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m sure these things have been blamed in the past for scuppering cold spells, the actual weather, not just the model output!  There was one case a few years back, someone will know when it was?

That was a low that showed up in a slack flow, would have arrived at closer time scales cme or no cme in my view.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Here's hoping it's our "we're over due for an X year" dividend for the next decade.

As long as x doesn't stand for storm of 87 I'm in, hopefully that x happened earlier this year and stayed south, and won't be coming back for another 20+ years.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 hours ago, AO- said:

Wind probability. Mostly west Southwest with the given EPS. 

Believe it or not, last year a sws at the bottom of the trough here in Dover, while UK was cold, was cold enough to get a covering, yep I was surprised too. Last December, however this set up does not look the same.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

17 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

Read all about it ️

…. bit of an exaggeration by the Mirror, according to the Express it’s only going to be a 473 mile long polar bomb..so that’s okay nothing to get excited about

 

 

Obviously talking about the possible wind storm in some models, it's too far ahead, GFS often over plays low at this distance. Hopefully it'll moderate when it gets closer. They normally do, but not always. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

7 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Mad Friday. That’ll stop a few going out. 

Not me, I've got a tourney on Friday night unless it's cancelled, I which case I won't go out lol it's only ten minutes down the road.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 hours ago, Daniel said:

Concerning gfs this morning in terms of wind speeds blizzards up north aswell 

Those would actually be blizzards, a lot of what people call blizzards here in the UK, don't have strong enough winds to qualify.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 hours ago, MAF said:

Last time i posted there i was shot down in flames for asking posters to elaborate a bit more and stop using abbreviations without explaining them. never again! 

I am quite a literate person, but some of the stuff posted in there is complete and utter tripe sometimes. 

It's met language not utter tripe lol, but yeah people do need to be mindful that not everyone will know what everything means. Most of the abbreviations once posted auto link to an explanation, but not all of them. Perhaps if it doesn't, they could edit and put an info link up.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

4 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ve had 2 inches of snow fall here in December on a strongish NW’ly with uppers barely scraping -5. That’s at 55m elevation. 2011 I think.

Had snowfall here in Dover last cold spell.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Any further East and it will miss us as per GEM12Z.

Yep definitely no thank you to that 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I may be missing something here, but the BOM plot seems to disagree with the ECM 46 plot about - the past, let alone the future.

I've thought this before, but I think it reversed, re southern hemisphere, that's how it makes more sense to me. But people said I was wrong about that.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

18 hours ago, al78 said:

After more delays on the trains this evening I found my cycle route home that normally goes over the river was now in the river. I didn't think there had been that much rain today but Horsham may have got hammered with more frequent heavy rain than London.

 

There was a big tail of showers with heavy bursts, though that storm in London was heavy, perhaps Thame big drainage system works better than people thought.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

18 hours ago, Freeze said:

Oh I realise that, what I mean is, last year there were practically no named storms anywhere even though there were quite a few vicious storms. This year they seemed to have lowered the bar required to name one. Maybe I'm wrong?

It always based on amber warnings, and in Ireland the storms were bad enough for that, it was Thier met agency that named both of these last two. We saw what cirain would have done had it been just a little north in the channel islands, although it did produce high winds here, it thankfully missed most of us so people though it shouldn't have been named, I disagree, as I was in the needed amber wind warnings, and it was mental here in Dover.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

On 11/12/2023 at 09:43, That ECM said:

Any cold was out in fi and still is tbh. If people are disappointed stick with ukmo up to T120. 
 

but where’s the fun in that? 
 

right, out to the far reaches of fi for signs of a potential cold spell for me.

Actually I prefer to stay in the reliable, myself.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

On 11/12/2023 at 08:44, Continental Climate said:

I think a lot of these posts stating "it's gonna be mild", "I told you so, we can write off December". " Don't trust the teleconnections, they aren't worth the paper they are written on", all these are just a thinly veiled attack on the people who do consider and study these teleconnections and the hard work they put into showing us their opinions and conclusions. Simply saying "I knew this cold spell was not going to happen all along", doesn't automatically make you a forecasting genius. Try putting as much effort into telling us why the cold spell didn't happen in the first place, instead of just saying " I knew it wouldn't happen. 

Also the time isn't here yet, so no one actually knows whether it'll happen or not yet.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

17 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Fair enough, zero consistency with these named storms is there.

They were always for Ireland and north England these two, I got rain, but wind wise, was never expecting much, and didn't get much. You alway have to check where the named storm is actually tracking, and not think, named storm, what storm. The storms happened, and did have bad effects where those effects were expected.

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Biggin said:

Yep same here in Beckenham...

It'll be the same one.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

4 hours ago, Freeze said:

There is barely a breeze across the UK, and a bit of rain. Nothing like a storm?

Think a squall just came over here here, or the rain was very heavy with wind just now.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

14 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Right down the list! Awful!

My area too for a change, northerly air in winter, always bring cloud and normally drizzle or heavy rain to here, this time it was snowy in the second one, shows some good cold to our north, should the right set up arrive at least.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

16 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Could not sleep the wind was making a racket all night.

Both storms missed me, not complaining, wish the rain did too.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

I suppose it's nice for a short while for photography, but it's not something i'd want for nonstop days or even weeks on end, can even lead to some poor air quality issues, but nothing like as bad as some winters in the 50s and 60s, where that would turn to smog.

Fog clearing to sunshine would be most ideal, or freezing fog which leads to thick rime ice formations would look nice for a little bit. Another way it's good is to be above the fog / low cloud inversion on a hill or mountain, but haven't got those close to my area.

I do agree with that, one or two days perhaps, but not weeks or months.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

8 hours ago, snowrye said:

Im actually on a 3 week, non ban streak. Unheard of for me, anyway, better say something about the weather, before I get banned on here. It's stopped raining 

Lol I don't know what people do to get banned on there, it's never happened to me yet., but I know lots of people it keeps happening too.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

8 hours ago, Metwatch said:

This under the high unfortunately 

What's wrong with that, unless your driving obviously, makes for some nice pictures, and is quite relaxing I find.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

2 hours ago, Premiere Neige said:

Several farmers fields caught fire here in July 2022 which weren't caused by arson or barbecues...

I remember doing that when I was about 20 (26 years ago ) and it was 2 years before I drank vodka again

I've also done this, it was with Cherry vodka, and I still can't drink it, instant headache.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

7 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Hmm....but it's not the heat, it's the prolonged dry spells that aid the arsonists OR error re a barby out of control (for example).

If we had 2 months of dry weather in Summer, but temps of say 23c max every day that would create the tinderbox conditions, just as much as only 10 days of dry and temps of 34c every day.

So what about someone compost heap over heating and catching alight, no one started that, the weather did.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

Yep.

Who wants to spend over £150 on food and booze in the days leading up to Xmas day, as one has fam and friends around on 'the day' and after, only for visitor plans to be cancelled because of snow and ice?

Plus, of course, the savings on energy useage as the heating can stay off.

Oh, and in defence of SunnyG, this thread is NOT a Winter Exclusive Snow thread.

Carry on.

That why I never plan that far ahead lol, have my roast here for Christmas day, veggies to be bought later, have a seconfary one for boxing day, normally entertain twice at christmas, the people move on for new year's eve.