alexisj9
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Posts posted by alexisj9
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Not sure it done much down here, tomorrow's probably won't either, we'll see I guess.
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4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Johncam..
No problems with the Barents sea ice this year it is second highest in the last 5 years,
MIA
Agreed, and last cold spell bought snow to Dover from the north sea, so air coming down is plenty cold enough this year.
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5 hours ago, jmp223 said:
One thing I noticed In the run up to our recent cold spell, the 06z always seemed to throw out stinkers of charts, which then be modified (positively for coldies) in the 12z. It seems to be doing it again!
0z with improvement on 6z, then best on 12/18z pattern has changed to with 6z worse than 0z.
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15 minutes ago, IanT said:
No interest in the potential for strong winds later on Saturday? Some of the models are showing gusts >90km/h. That’s enough for damage to be a possibility.
Met has some yellow warnings out for wind, so they reckon it, for some reason no one is posting about it though
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2 hours ago, lewis clark said:
The snow and cold arrives on the 22nd at 6pm according to gb news
lol!
Enogh to keep me well away from the channel, no matter what the discussion, if they sensationalise weather, they'll do that with everything else as well.
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1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:
Imagine if the Met released that statement. The meltdown in the tabloids would be incredible! They’d cause huge panic. And then if it didn’t happen they’d be hammered by the same tabloids. Not worth the hassle.
Itlltbe in the tabloids anyway, they'll jump on today's Christmas charts tomorrow , saying met says as usual.
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16 minutes ago, MP-R said:
If anything I’d say they’ve been notable by their absence… September’s was only a week too.
Absence from here perhaps but persistent in southern Europe, while we were stuck under a trough, that also didn't really move, as said above high pressures have been very persistent, where they've built.
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5 hours ago, Kentspur said:
Until a solar flare ruins it 3 days before Christmas like 2 years back!
That was nothing to do with a solar flare lol, slack flow just got filled with a trough, happens all the time, with or without flares.
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1 hour ago, Emz by the Thames said:
Holy heck, a terrifically loud clap of thunder about an hour ago seemingly heard for miles from Maidenhead to Wycombe!!!
Social media across several different Facebook group all had posts asking where the explosion was. Some people though it was another Buncefield.
Only one unremarkable flash seen by my partner near Marlow but not me in Wycome, I just heard what sounded like an enormous crash.
What on earth made it so loud I wonder! Strike looks like it was a good 5 miles away near Cookham, Berks.
Exciting.
Probably positive cloud to ground. May have hit something, often makes it sound louder.
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46 minutes ago, rwtwm said:
No, it doesn't. But it's worth noting that ECM doesn't foresee a high amplitude MJO through phase 7/8, so I wouldn't expect the consequences to be reflected either.
This is yesterday's ECM.
There has been discussion up the thread of amplitude decay being a known bias of MJO forecasts.
Well luckily it seems that the ECM page from which I've drawn the above has a recent history.
ECMWF | Charts
CHARTS.ECMWF.INTBelow is the same chart from Nov 28th and Dec 2nd:
Note the change of the amplitude in phase 5 (in particular) as we move from 1 week ago to today. Bear in mind of course that previous performance is no guarantee of future success. In the same way that if the first 3 lows miss us to the south, doesn't mean the next will.
The BOM has been posted a few times, but for quick reference, here it is again...
I've been sympathetic to the thought that highlighting the BOM feels a bit like 'cherry picking'. But I have to concede it's been consistent with this. I can't find a BOM 240 chart for our part of the world to compare (do they exist?) but that's where if be looking to test the impact of phase 7/8 on our weather, that's where I'd look.
Could be well wrong here, but perhaps BOM mjo is the southern hemisphere pattern?
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6 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:
I really want something from east this time if we do get another cold spell northerly don’t really cut it for me manly dry and sunny.
Normally agree, but somehow this time it actually delivered a little. Didn't expect anything but rain from the north sea this early in the season. On top of that frozen rain the next night.
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34 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
I still think there's a point to be made about the precautionary principle. How sure would you have to be to take action? I would argue that even if someone's personal confidence in the science were only, say, 50% (of course my own view and most people who hold the mainstream view would say it's more like 99%), there'd still be a strong argument to do whatever we could to mitigate that risk.
Take weather warnings, which we're all familiar with. The case in Scotland recently - some people who refused to evacuate during Storm Babet and had to be rescued later. Would you prefer to be the person who evacuates your house and suffers quite a lot of disruption to your life, only perhaps to find that your house was fine and you could have stayed, or would you stay and take your chances with the storm if it was as bad as the authorities said?
Of course, there are some who might say that their quality of life in a world that massively reduced emissions might be so bad that it's not worth living, and that my house evacuation analogy doesn't really work. But it's an interesting debate nonetheless!
That's an easy one, if I was asked to evacuate, and I could do so, some would need help, and I'm pretty sure that was on offer re Scotland, I would. It does make me quite angry to here people say, "we stayed, we didn't expect it to be this bad, it's been ok before, etc" the fact is they could have been nice and safe, and no one would have had to go into a dangerous situation to rescue them.
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1 minute ago, SnowBear said:
Well, from what I see is there is quite an interesting discussion going on in here, with some varying opinions, and with the complexity and mountain of info out there, I expect to see varying opinions.
It's good to question science, and we should do, continually, this is where break thoughts in understanding comes from.
The earths atmosphere is an extremely complex system, to say we completely understand it is naive.
That is not the same as a denier, who out and out sees it all as a conspiracy and that there is no warning etc.
We know the climate is changing, as it has done since the earth was formed, what we have to define, is each individual part precisely to understand the whole.
Have humans effected the climate? Yes. Is there other things going on to? Yes. Is there things we still don't understand? Yes. Should we keep questioning our current understanding? Yes.
When you stop questioning and seeking answers, checking and double checking, looking for alternatives, science stops.
I actually agree with that.
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2 minutes ago, TillyS said:
Well this is from the ECMWF’s own site.
For the kind of cold inversion you are looking for you need a settled HP cell over the UK and that’s not what the ECM is showing. That draw of southerly wind, and south-westerlies up the NW of the UK, isn’t a cold set up.
Best to be realistic at the moment. All may change before long.
Se is not under those winds, we have still air, or may be even a slight northeasterly, it would be cold, unless cloudy, so assuming it's a cloudy high, now seen temps. Which also won't feel warm
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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:EC flat as the proverbial..
Looking for some retrogression day 9/10
Looks dry and cold in the south to me, yep false cold apparently, but as far as me and my bills are concerned, cold is cold.
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1 hour ago, Scuba steve said:
The only way I see any chance of meeting this target is by restricting people’s activities cars travel and eating habits and probably by doing so introducing a surveillance type state to monitor people’s carbon usage ,as I’ve said before it’s a socialist dream and a grim future whatever you believe
Lol, you are calling conservatives socialist, as in some ways that's already started in the last few years. It isn't a political matter, however politicians do need to get behind it to help curb usage. It will not be done how you've said, it'll be done how we can already see, by changing what's available for use, non petrol/diesel cars, etc.
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9 hours ago, Ali1977 said:
That chart will be a lot colder than it looks, especially in the south, under the slack high, but even up north it WNW direction, not SW so probably not too warm.
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11 minutes ago, Derecho said:
Yup, geoengineering is the only answer.
I don't think the rate in which green technologies are required to grow in order to mitigate the increases in temperature are possible. I don't think many people want to drop everything and go back to living in caves either. Now there is also the narrative from developing countries that it is the fault of the developed world. Climate change only became a part of mainstream science in the 1980s in which point we were already locked in to technologies that fueled anthropogenic climate change.
So I only have apathy now, 'might as well enjoy myself before we are all doomed' outlook. As soon as I hear someone saying they will solve climate change I switch off because they clearly don't know how bad the problem is and unlike China and India I don't think people of the west have blood on their hands. A lot more should have been one from the 1980s onwards but corporate interests from those at the very top derailed that.
The more time that passes by the more unrealistic it is to be able to do something. There will be geopolitical consequences, and people will need to adapt but sadly the only way to prevent things now is geo-engineering, we are already engineering the climate in one direction already....
Would the response of world leaders be different if CO2 made the planet colder?
Probably not. It's all about the money re oil, and what it can produce, including plastics, and synthetic materials.
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9 hours ago, SnowBear said:
Umm, this is false, it's estimated that there has been somewhere around 110+ billion so far.
Do the dead outnumber the living?
WWW.BBC.COM
The population of the planet reached seven billion in October last year, according to the United Nations. But what's the figure for all those who have lived before us?I thought that was an impossibility when I read it to be honest. We've been about for over a thousand years for sure, so, thinking how many would have died even in that time, till now, has got to be more than are alive now surely.
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July August heatwave 2003.
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August 1955 heat wave
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On 10/11/2023 at 18:11, LRD said:
Unless I'm reading it wrong, it isn't showing that is it? It's looking like chances of a toasty strat are declining in Feb aren't they?
Apols if I'm reading that wrong. March looks a higher probability of a SSW so that's not great
There alway a final warming, when the pv naturally dies, hopefully that's whats showing for march
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On 10/11/2023 at 17:48, northwestsnow said:
Absolutely want a ssw but absolutely don't want it in mid Feb !
No never again after last year please, was freezing here, but wrong side of for snow, rather like not in fact, till June. Can do with out that.
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On 10/11/2023 at 16:50, Chesil View said:
This is so true Cheshire Freeze.
It is easy to think that if Glosea doesn't show extreme high pressure anomalies to our north and east for the three months or suggest a monumental 63 type winter that all is lost.
Yet I am always reminded that the outstanding winter event of my life time. The great southwest blizzard of February 1978 that produced drifts as deep as telegraph poles on the south coast of Dorset, occurred with a wedge extention from high pressure over Greenland with uppers of just minus 2 to minus 5 but perhaps most important of all in a winter ranked 205th for cold out of 360 odd cet winters.
We don't need to have 63 or47 redux to have cold/snow events that pretty much every contributor to this thread would pull your arm off for.
For me the broad picture is shaping rather nicely as we head into the winter season particularly Jan Feb March.
Exactly.
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
No where near for me, barely noticed it didn't have to much rain either