[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

9 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Try. Not. To. Giggle

It will soon be touching Brest lol, moving north quickly.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Main front can now be seen on radar below Brest. We can now watch where it goes, fingers crossed time.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Was that the same year that one or two NW peeps got it right, too? I've been right three times over the years. . . 1979, '86 and '87 were very helpful in that regard! 

Yep I believe it was, and they used proper forecasting, especially the one who the got employment and couldn't post any more.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Maybe not such a bright idea.

You can imagine the headlines..

"Thousands stranded as Eurostar cancelled due to blizzards hitting northern France".

Thing is anyone that went over specifically for snow would probably expect that and not complain, it'll be the normal tourists doing that 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, throwoff said:

He gets an insane amount of media attention considering he has never been right.

He was right once, and then things took off for him and his weird forecast method that probably only coincidentally worked that once.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

A bit too much cloud around for a really cold night here. Only down to -3.1 in the end.

Obviously the cloud isn't thick enough to produce any snow just thick enough to stop the temperature falling too far.

You must be unlucky, someone in the model thread mentioned snow in Chelmsford, so the cloud had something in it for some.

Sorry, didn't finish typing and somehow it posted it's self, must have pressed submit by accident somehow.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I haven’t been on here for a day, does anyone have a clue about Wednesday, keep hearing different stories, my weather apps are saying snow, then not and then back again

No one know yet, but watching radar to.orrow to see where it actually tracks.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

There something off the coast in the sw now, looks like heavy showers, don't know which way they are moving though, probably along the channel

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

That’s a runner LP and would be more violent than it appears due to the sharp pressure differential.

So basically ecm does agree with the storm on gfs

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

I think we started like this in October before the Storm corrected South on future runs and effected Channel Isles and Northern France.

Depends on any belt of high pressure over the continent as to Sothward shifts.

GEM and ECM not interested so still an outlier solution anyway.

 

To be fair it does look similar, however that doesn't leave this area out of the woods.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

12 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

We got that in 1990 burns day storm in the south west, we also had some strong storms during winter I think in 2013 that were severe but not as severe as 1990.

I have noticed that gfs does tend to over blow these lows several days out but occasionally they get it right. Some exciting weather none the less hopefully. A cosy day indoors I think 

It has support from the 0z meto, so I will keep an eye on this now.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

7 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it? 

Can I just say no thank you, look at the winds over east Kent yuk.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Perhaps Teidi will go up for you.

Now either the GPS stations aren't updating or the eruption hasn't released enough Magma as majority of stations aren't showing any deflation after the eruption. If they are updating that means another eruption is very likely pretty soon.  It will be worth having another look tomorrow. I think it just a case of the data not being uploaded for some reason.

 

Probably some are damaged.

[Model discussion highlights]

Don't know if anyone rates these probably not, but it's an ensemble that shows all 4 of today's runs together, looks a bit of a mess obviously, but I'm only interested in the mean, all this is useful for really

Shows small chance of snow on Wednesday and a warm up Saturday evening for the extreme SE corner.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012536

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Don't know if anyone rates these probably not, but it's an ensemble that shows all 4 of today's runs together, looks a bit of a mess obviously, but I'm only interested in the mean, all this is useful for really

Shows small chance of snow on Wednesday and a warm up Saturday evening for the extreme SE corner.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, easton888 said:

Still find the way wednesday's low is modelled a little strange. It starts barreling towards the nederlands and then suddendly flattens out as if to squeeze through the channel like it's a pipe. Still think it will correct further north

It's the low in the north sending a front south, it sort of squeezes it away, that comes down slower, low will be slightly further north, all depends on the low up north.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

5 hours ago, Neilsouth said:

@Paul Is mod section broken?

 

Warning issued by A.J

July 15, 2014

Content moderated - 2 days

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Haven't posted in that section or broken any rules in that group for awhile, as seen by 2014 Lol

He posted in the thread that everyone's post would be looked at first, to many off topic posts at some point I guess. Was at darts so apart from that I've no idea.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

21 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Evening al,

Just a P.S. to LAWRENK's poser about February 1991, earlier this Morning.

Below, are some 500hPa/850hPa/2 metre temperature archive charts for 7th February, that Year:

   

If memory serves, the South Eastern Region of British Rail had recently invested in a new fleet of Trains.

The very fine powdery Snow fell at temperatures well below freezing, and pretty unusual for the U.K.

The strong Easterly wind blew the fine powdery Snow and it managed to find it's way into the electrical systems, of the new fleet of Trains.

And below, is a Wikipedia explanation on how the "The wrong type of snow"/the wrong kind of snow" phrase, came into being.

"The wrong type of snow" or "the wrong kind of snow" is a phrase coined by the British media in 1991 after severe weather caused disruption to many of British Rail's services. A British Rail press release implied that management and its engineering staff were unaware of different types of snow. 

The phrase originated in an interview conducted by James Naughtie on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme on 11 February 1991. British Rail's Director of Operations, Terry Worrall, was asked to comment on the adverse effects of the unusually heavy 1991 snowfall on railway services that winter. Worrall explained that "we are having particular problems with the type of snow, which is rare in the UK". Naughtie replied "Oh, I see, it was the wrong kind of snow," to which Worrall replied, "No, it was a different kind of snow". The exchange prompted a headline in the London Evening Standard saying "British Rail blames the wrong type of snow" which was swiftly taken up by the media and other papers.

The cold snap had been forecast and British Rail had claimed to be ready for the coming snow. However, the snow was unusually soft and powdery and too deep to be cleared by snowploughs – it needed snowblowers. The snow found its way into electrical systems and caused short circuits and traction motor damage in trains. For traction motors with integral cooling fans and air intakes pointing downwards – the type that is still common on British electric multiple units – the problem was made worse as the air intakes sucked up the loose snow. Meanwhile, the snow also became packed into sliding door mechanisms and into points, causing them to fail. In addition, low temperatures resulted in problems with electric current collection from the third rail.

Many electric services had to be replaced by diesel haulage, and emergency timetables were introduced. Long delays were commonplace – up to eight hours in some cases. The disruption lasted over a week.

It wasn't a great period for British Rail as a few Years earlier, they were the subject of ridicule again.

Again if memory serves, they had bought a Snow Plough from Norwegian Railways but it was of the wrong gauge, and not appropriate for the gauge of British Rail's, network.

But below is an image of a Snow-Blower that British Rail had sent down to the South Eastern Region, from the Scottish Highlands.

Here it is in action on the Hoo Peninsula in January 1987, so that oil supplies could get through from the refineries, at Grain:

The above image was reproduced with the kind permission of Ian Currie, Co-Author of the Kent Weather Book.

Below, are some 500hPa/850hPa/2 metre temperature archive charts for 12th January, 1987:

   

The above examples of February 1991 and January 1987, further proof that a "Beast from the East" scenario, courtesy of a Scandinavian area of High Pressure, rarely fails to deliver for our Region.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

Re not realising there are different types of snow, that's not surprising, I'm didn't know this either till I joined the weather community, and how many British rail bosses would be into this hobby.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

According to Matt Hugo, they were shifted due to the Strat Warming!

Yes, that's right. The one thing we look for all Winter has caused a potentially 2 to 3 week snowy cold spell to become a disappointing 36 hour cold and dry borefest.

 

I've warned before they don't always lead to cold, and can also spoil what are good synoptics if there before the warming. I n ver even look there, it's a real shame how things seem to be going down.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

They are probably being very cautious. A few tens of miles it’s the difference between some of the heaviest snow this region has seen since 2010 and absolutely nothing. Issuing a warm for nothing to happen would be damaging from a credibility perspective.  Would expect warnings not to be issued until Tuesday, if at all - unless there’s a big northward shift. 

 

 

 

Agreed I remember in march 2013, two systems like the one on Wednesday were possible, they placed a red warning on the first one, but it went to France. The second one got a red warning too, and did hit east Sussex and Kent, but people ignored the warning and got stuck on the M20, a20, M2 and probably everywhere else.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

Eh? There has been no mention about rain this week ! If these mild sectors are now popping up then it’s new

Not new as such, just as we get closer the models firm up, in this case on what was already there, all lows have a warm sector, so it's always been there.

[2023 confirmed as world's warmest year on record]

On 09/01/2024 at 21:08, WYorksWeather said:

There's also plenty of people who love to quote the odd places that are achieving cold records, but what you find is that they're so, so rare compared to the warm records, and usually of a lesser degree. For example, some Scandinavian countries have recorded December 2023 as one of the top five coldest months in their respective records. However, when you look at the broader scale, the year as a whole has been warmer than average virtually everywhere. In fact, I saw an extraordinary stat, that in the year to November, around 15-20% of the Earth's surface was having a record-warm year, and nowhere has had a record-cold year.

You can always point to a few cold spots - Northern Europe, the South Pacific, and so on. But anyone who takes a look at that map and thinks there's any sort of question about what is going on temperature-wise is clutching at straws.

What many people fail to see, is the cold record are also a part of the chaos cause by agw. Systems are getting stuck, so you get record cold, record rain, record warmth and record dry, all at the same time in different areas, depending what is stuck where.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

Where as I normally watch I rlandic vents, normally so beautiful, I don't think I'll watch this one. Just glad no one is in the town.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

, was hoping the town would be ok, guess now, even if lava stays out, it's way to close to activity for people to live there, just won't be safe for a long while.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

The GEFS seems more interested in Wednesdays low being further north than the 00z - about 6/7 show snow as far as the midlands. 

I do wonder if the models will start a small shift north in the next couple of days, instead of the shift south. Overnight modelling has pulled Tuesdays low northwards and is a tad stronger, first seen by the GFS. Keep an eye on the ECM/EPS 06z in the next hour to see whether they pull northwards. Say a middle ground solution seems a tad more likely now, perhaps the south coast getting something.

I'm just wondering, looking at the position of the front coming down from the north on the fax chart, if what we are seeing is actually that front being a bit stronger on some models, hence snow along it in the south, while it waits for the low further south to clear away.