Ali1977

BFTE setting up with the GEM , day 10 thought so unlikely !! That’s some easterly though

It’s hard to see a breakdown anytime soon with this pattern, Ice days and colder and colder nights in any clear skies, especially with a snow covering.

It’s the set up that’s important, give it 24 hours on and most of the U.K. would be cold enough for snow. That set up would keep us very cold for several days. Ideally the GFS, GEM and ECM have a quicker route to the cold

Well the ICON is first out and it looks like a big improvement, the Greenland high is much stronger and bigger (and heights are better to the south and east of it) which should help the flow from the north head through the U.K.

That’s good to see, especially being a huge outlier near the end. Over to the 06zs

JMA is good too

The GEM has it nailed don’t worry. T192

I’d take the pub run over the 12z that’s fir sure

The blocks fighting back, here comes the deep cold at day 10. This could be deep cold right to day 16

It’s just giving us time to stock up on logs, oil and gas before dropping the mother load from the Arctic

The real cold is associated with this area - let’s hope that rattles off south right through the heart of the U.K. !!

I really think there could be a big snow event next Wed/Thurs, as the cold air wraps round the LP followed by the Arctic blast. one to watch.

Next Wed could offer a snow event as the cold air meets the LP in the south It’s kind of showing up

Slightly diff at T138, not quite as good around Greenland (although not sure if that will be an issue) , but the latest run also keep the Iberian low much further south. The Iberian lows position should aid a better northerly I think

Guessing the cold breaks down quickly on the control?

They are really really good , and that warm up at the very end , the one that some people seem to be looking at all ready could very well not happen - this cold could go on for some time

This has been released by the METO, an early warning seems like a good call looking at todays charts.

I was afraid to look I shouldn’t have been, this could be another upgrade.

The GFSP starts showing snow/sleet showers quite widely as early as Sunday. Next week could be interesting if that Iberian low meets cold enough Air - battleground snow etc…

If the ECM follows that I’ll be waxing my sledge up

The GEM is an absolute GEM at T157”6

Whilst the mean beyond day 10 isn’t as impressive as earlier, there are still numerous good runs, the mean is being skewed less cold by 5/6 really mild runs (conscious this works both ways). Here are some day 12 charts. These are good, but really we need another step in the right direction on the 12zs, we don’t want to be in the usual situation of downgrading the upcoming cold every single run!!!

Even the mean at day 5 looks more ECM like with the trough setting up to deliver the northerly , a good step for the better but we just need everything to move slightly more east for the holy grail.

This is all it shows sorry