Ali1977

Later down the line the block gets into a great position for us coldies, just a shame it’s in deep FI. This set up could lead to a prolonged cold spell if it did materialise.

That’s some block to our East, it’s stopping the Atlantic in its tracks and won’t take much tweaking to bring the “BFTE” comments back to the Forum - no doubt it’ll have limited support and be gone in the next run - however something to watch!!

Mild, but extremely blocked in FI. Seems to be a trend of recent runs, get a block over Greenland like this and things could fall well for coldies!! A long way off but we all love a chase, and it’s in line with some thoughts of those more qualified than me due to the -IOD and MJO floating around 6/7. The latest METO 3 month forecast suggests a cold Nov-Jan period is more likely than a mild one, albeit around average temps being the form horse - average is actually pretty chilly compared to some more recent years though.

T330, I imagine this would kick start winter a few days later

Morning all, my first post for several months!! This FI chart looks interesting from the GFS, the PV has shifted to Siberia and heights are heading into the Arctic. A long way off but mid Nov is where it starts in my eyes, and it would be a waste to have the perfect set up in early Nov. In the mean time enjoy the warmth and keep saving the pennies on your gas and electric bills for when we need that heating cranked up

The arpege still has Fridays Atlantic system heading far enough north to bring some snow into southern U.K. on Friday, but it is somewhat on its own on this so unlikely at this stage.

Day 5 on the ECM still has the LP hitting the south with snow on its northern edge

Pinch of salt on these charts, but this ECM run does show snow for many by day 6.

The ECM now has the LP coming in off the Atlantic into colder air, where this meets could be one to watch.

Some big showers heading our way just as the temps fall, could give a covering for some that then freezes.

The latest UKV certainly has snow for many in the south - it has it for 6 hours in my location!!

It doesn’t get any better by 2000 or even later , although Thurs shower activity looks way more widespread than other models Here is 10pm by the way

ECM says no to snow , pretty much everywhere ??

Not far off, I think it’ll all depend on the intensity and how quick the cold are digs in. I’d love to beat the best fall this year, which is about 2cm at nearly 800 feet that’s pretty poor for a winter

Latest arome follows the earlier run, Cotswolds look primed can’t see it being more than a dusting at best though!! Let’s see if the GFS agrees in a few minutes

Similar - although moves the front East again poss 2-4 cm it’s showing in places

The BBC App uses ECM data, but looking at the ECM run the graphics aren’t the same - the graphics on the forecast have the precip further west. Maybe they adjust using the higher res models, not sure really!!

Latest BBC forecasts seems to bring the snow back west too, bringing much of the south into the zone of a possible dusting. It now happens at night too, followed by a freeze so some may wake up to a cm or so.

Best chart of the morning is the Arome for the south, not sure how this stacks up in its accuracy against the other models though The Arpege has also moved the system West this morning.

ECM has a much bigger area of precip

Seems that way, it’s hard to tell where the UKMO sits against the GFS!! Very very similar

I can’t post snow depths yet, but there are some epic ENS on this run. Several with 24 hours of snow for the south midland / south!! Interesting P17 for example, there are many others.

It certainly upgrades the size of the front front the north, this time tomorrow we may even see a weather warning for snow - probably the first of the whole winter for some

Arpege takes the snow further west, GFS down more of the East. We are firming up on the chances of snow now, but where gets the best chance of a moderate covering is still to be determined!! ECM takes the snow down the centre of the U.K.

A Stronger and colder feed on the latest ICON vs the previous run. Latest run at the bottom