Ali1977

I don’t know, this one is nailed on for tomorrow. I think everyone knows FI ENS are more aimed at looking trends rather than actual nailed on Synoptics . This thread is the hunt for cold, so even posting charts at day 6 from the Op runs is pretty much pointless if accuracy is what you’re after!! Just stick with the half pint empty mentality, and I’ll deal with the fall out of my half pint full one - and no doubt be calling the roll on 22/23 winter in 8 weeks

Well the NH is looking interesting on many ENS on the latest run - all very diff to nothing can be drawn from it!!

Icon not delivering full on low ground snow but it’s bringing back more typical Jan weather, cold wet and windy. Good for the Scottish ski resorts that’s for sure There is a little LP moving through though, maybe a few surprises for some (Welsh hills anyway)

A few ENS similar to the UKMO at 168, something to watch for!!

All options are still on the table for sure, but it does look like the HP is finally getting squeezed out. Where that leads us is still open , and for most they won’t take notice of the colder options until the METO forecast changes!! That UKMO 168 looks promising but not supported by the ECM or the GFS!!

Some good ENS this morning, the control isn’t bad either You know, maybe this is the type of set up we could have in Feb - East based La Niña and all that

Yeah she’d do, fingers crossed things just get better as the day tick by could this end up bringing a north easterly I wonder !!

It’s Certainly looking cold by day 10 And colder still by day 12

Looking good, a little bit earlier this run but still day 10!!

Best set for quite some time, with a little cluster going to -10c too

By day 11/12 much of the U.K. under -4c uppers on the mean and the Euro HP getting washed out - finally. I’ll be happy with PM shots and the chance of some transient snow at least !! If we are to have a spell of PM air then late Jan and early Feb is probably the best time for it!!

And at day 9 the -6c mean 850s are into Scotland and heading south

By day 8 the mean is close to showing a PM flow now with heights building in the Western Atlantic , with some colder looking ENS either in place, or heading in!! . It’s getting closer, but will it materialise ?? I’ll be interested to see if the METO update changes to more of a PM type scenario

If only the Atlantic heights could link with those over the high Arctic, it’s a better looking day 11 chart though. We need these in the reliable!!

Day 10 looking good, similar to ECM but maybe a day ahead - hopefully a good PM shot for a day or 2

That’ll be cold enough on day 11 for snow, if it happened obviously!!

Hopefully perfect for unleashing the big freeze fury In a few weeks, yeah

No doubt it’ll be gone next run, but this is early enough to profit in later Feb vice March which is good.

This looks better, a very wavy jet stream

A few interesting ones at T332

Ridging quite nicely at T222 - looks like it may be temporary though so not sure if it’ll produce the goods It looks like a non starter with a low blowing up from the eastern Atlantic ??

Yep, little ridge just forming into Greeny at T216 - similar to the ECM and GEM - so maybe a chance of PM coming

I’d prefer the ECM, looks like a wintry set up come day 11/12, where as the GFS would just prolong the pain

A bit more day 11 interest in the ENS this morning, and much more spread. A pattern change (or NH confusion at least) looks in the cards finally, let’s hope it works out well for us coldies Although this Perb seems to say, “ smash the PV to pieces around me all you like, but I refuse to leave the pole and satisfy the needs of you U.K. coldies”

I hope so, it’s not like the drivers have been acting in their usual manner so what’s to say a flip to a monumental freeze isn’t out the equation. It’s all well and good saying it won’t , and obviously the METO don’t see it, but when has the U.K. weather ever done as expected beyond the reliable - and what has global warming done to these forecasts, maybe the drivers have flipped upside down!! A few more days of FI chasing is obviously on the cards, but we will hopefully be chasing more reliable colder options soon !!