Ali1977

Would that be an 850 record I wonder - obviously if it happened - which we know it won’t

Big 3 at T168 - some consistency finally. No big northerly though!! UKMO might look best over the U.K. but it also has the biggest build of PV over Canada!!

P5 and P2 are the coldest I’d say there are plenty milder ones too though sadly ??

A much improved day 7 mean and ENS, many have height rises around Labrador off the back of the LP running up the Eastern seaboard. This is what needs watching. The weaker PV over Canada on latest mean compared to the 12z here. This is day 7, hopefully things will fall like the above ENS and a big flip by models to this tomorrow.

Possibly a decent northerly for a few days is all I see in the next 10-12 days, no idea beyond that. The METO won’t change their 2-4 week paragraph unless there is a clear signal, granted they don’t even mention any possible colder signals at the minute so that’s defo not a good sign but they can quickly jump!! If by the end of next week we have nothing signalled for late Jan then I too will be saying “hopefully in Feb”, but for now I’m still hopeful we can pull a decent cold spell out the hat this month. I do think anyone craving a sustained cold spell (easterly type) has little chance this month, unless we can get enough of a ridge that will topple to a temporary easterly!! Edit - day 10 EC ENS are poor looking at the mean, even I can’t try to polish that T*** !!

Agree , day 10 charts are so far into FI, especially lately, that they won’t come off. However charts showing dire mild charts also won’t come off - therefore anything can still happen, but mild more likely obviously !!

I’ll give them the credit for not jumping on the Xmas cold possibilities, but they did not predict record warmth until it was in the models we get to see, and the cool down was also easy to see. Beyond day 10 it’s a little bit of guess work , which in the U.K. generally means guess mild unless models and bigger forces all suggest otherwise , and you won’t be far wrong. Ps - this doesn’t mean I’m saying a big freeze is coming , just that don’t write Jan off on the 09th!!

Day 10 looks good very going forward to me ?? But then again, Jan has no chance of cold according to some That detached low could squash the Azores high, or move it anyway

The models have no idea beyond day 6, so not sure why people are still writing Jan off!! So FI is the 15th ish, deep FI around 20th. That leaves 11 days where no one, not even the METO have a clue!!

Lots of negativity here which I guess looking at the charts is east to see why , however the action starts as the high moving in over the U.K. starts to move West - this is between day 7-9 and still pretty much in FI!! If we had a cold spell forecast at day 7-9 all those negative types will say it will fail and won’t happen, well maybe this lack of ridging will be wrong too and we’ll end up with a monster ridge and brutal northerly. Over to the ECM to put some cheers back into this forum ️

I’ve cherry picked P22, similar to the earlier Op and possibly our best option moving forward. Day 5 the heights start forming near Labrador/Newfoundland and they manage to find a gap to a decent latitude in the NH, importantly to the West of Greenland.

Day 6 Control looks more like the 06z Op, possibly!!

An op shouldn’t be ignored at day 10, but I’ll be ignoring this one and looking for a better set of ENS. GEM running, will see what that does too. We’ve been unlucky, I’m just hoping around day 6/7 flips cold in the coming 24 hours and set up a good enough ridge that flops over to an easterly. I know the METO aren’t seeing it, but you never know.

The 06z was always a bit strange bringing it in so quick, we were down to about day 9 where we need to look. Possible ridge into Greenland now, depending on PV breaking to the north West of Greenland Edit - it looks a struggle so far Sod’s law we’ll see better ENS this run

The GFS at 132 isn’t looking like following as quickly as the 06z into a northerly, looking at heights around Labrador - next few frames we shall see though.

I think it might be ok, flick between 120 and 144 the WAA seems to shoot north quickly. Drop the little low towards the Azores and the ridge may gain traction into Greenland

Is the Op a trend setter or wil it prove to be an outlier on the 12z’s!! The FI mean not as cold as yesterday’s, but we need to get the medium term nailed down first!!

Will it be supported by the ENS , it’s nearly medium range

That’s cold for everyone, very cold. Can it link with the other heights a prolong it

Up you go, keep it going !!

The GEFS are littered with good charts at day 9 (getting closer) Sone cold PM, some very cold Northerlies, some cold easterlies , some potential Scandy type highs beyond.

Day 9 looks decent in the JMA, and day 11 looks primed too.

Yep, the Canadian PV has just gone crazy again - let’s hope FI is exactly that , and completely wrong!! It’s still fairly different from the ECM so we are nine the wiser really.

Another decent run to day 9, a little complicated around the NH now so already We’ll into FI. Let’s keep trending better and hopefully luck will be on our side as we approach more reliable timeframes. Keeping an eye on those ENS though, be nice to get those monster ridges back that were showing 3 days ago.

Possibly just to the west of Greenland , there’s a little gap in the PV that would give !!