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Ali1977

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Everything posted by Ali1977

  1. Ali1977
    We also have some promise in the latest METO update, so a northerly hitting at least the east side of the U.K. could well happen. We shall see, I don’t expect it to follow the GFS, but closer towards it that this morning.
  2. Ali1977
    The GFS 12z would probably have frost for about 5 days with little or no meltdown to it still being January, now if only we could have a little weather front in the initial northerly to cover of snow on the ground then nights would be much colder, and it would probably end up being an old school severely cold spell!!
  3. Ali1977
    Some of the better T150 ENS. Enjoy.
  4. Ali1977
    Control looks great
  5. Ali1977
    There’s still some great ENS in there. Over to the ECM which may well improve lots. Max temps next Tue Sorry that’s min
  6. Ali1977
    GFS at 192 still might cold down south
  7. Ali1977
    Let’s see the ENS , they could yet trend better. The op is close to great again and still v good
  8. Ali1977
    Still not bad, Heights still heading north at T120.
  9. Ali1977
    So the short ECM 06z did actually show things could improve , interesting
  10. Ali1977
    Is this a good thing?
  11. Ali1977
    Well if day 5/6 is correct on the GFS you’d think the ICON will jump. It’s first out the blocks shortly, if it jumps it will be a great sign. I doubt it will, and if it doesn’t I’ll defo expect the GFS to lose the extreme signal (not necessarily the cold chance) but we shall see!!
  12. Ali1977
    The fact it’s in there says there’s a chance, they also say strong winds and cold wintry showers to windward coast which screams northerly. They are obviously dabbling with the GFS 06z possibilities!!
  13. Ali1977
    Is the ECM 06z short range behind a paywall?
  14. Ali1977
    I agree, but maybe the new data brings the UKMO and ECM towards the GFS with at least the chance of a 1or 2 day cold spell. We’ll find out in about 3.5 hrs - then no doubt be disappointed!! If the wording doesn’t chance on the METO update I defo won’t be holding my breath!
  15. Ali1977
    If the 06z is not quite as good as the 12z this is good news, as it’s likely underestimating the BIG FREEZE coming next week
  16. Ali1977
    It’s not an outlier, there are 8 ENS colder Without the EC , MOGREPS or ULMO support you’d have to think this will be downgraded vastly on the 12z but we shall see!! Maybe the 06z has new data
  17. Ali1977
    Great mean especially knowing both the Op and control are way colder with -12c uppers at day 6
  18. Ali1977
    Ice days from Tue for most . No point looking at snow, I’m sure there would be snow events within that run that aren’t modelled. If this is still there on the 12z it will make up for my ski holiday to France just being cancelled on Sunday - a little anyway
  19. Ali1977
    Right here we are, some day 6 ENS (semi reliable ) . There are others also good !! The “spaghetti “ will be amazing for the 06z!! I think you’ll agree, the Op is supported.
  20. Ali1977
    GFS FI sending WAA up again!!
  21. Ali1977
    This is the 6 day mean, not a cherry picked Perb
  22. Ali1977
    I’m sure you wrote off January
  23. Ali1977
    Day 5 mean, huge improvement with more than half similar to the Op. whether the ens have the longevity of cold we’ll have to wait another 30 mins. Could be interesting
  24. Ali1977
    Look where the WAA is going on the mean
  25. Ali1977
    I will because I think it has ENS support, plenty going with WAA est of Greenland even by T102
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