Ali1977

Day 10 is way in FI, last run there was a LP at Newfoundland at T270, the 12z now has a HP ?? at 264 . The actual charts look like that should be the other way round!! The cold associated to our NW is epic though, bring that in a PM flow at the snow would surely come!!

UKMO looking better than the GFS at 168, with a little more Atlantic amplification. The PV cut off to our north is also elongated so that should have a longer draw of colder air when it swings past.

GFS and UKMO similar at 144, so let’s see if we can get that PM back in by day 8/9 - UKMO does look to be parting the PV a little better though.

The UKMO is too early to show the PM flow I think, it’s beyond 168 where it kicks in on other models mainly.

Yeah, seen I thought a PM type set up might trigger some wording change if it were to come to fruition but not to be , that doesn’t mean to say it won’t happen and it won’t change tomorrow of course (it still says brief colder spells possible, which is a complete cop out) It’s just one of those “caution required” moments when the METO aren’t singing off the same page as the models we have access too suggest “could” happen. Still, if the 12z follow the earlier runs we should have some faith, and then require some luck!!

Some snow rows from around the U.K. for the next 2 weeks. Let’s see if the 12z can improve again.

There’s a decent handful that have a slightly better northerly by day 8/9, similar looking to the EC ENS cluster 1. These have uppers around the -10-14c mark. Control is one of them.

That’s a pretty tasty mean at day 8.

Many opportunities on the 06z, best run for bloody weeks!! Chances in the more reliable then further ones into FI !! The ECM cluster looks even better so happy days today for a change, albeit still some time off to get too excited.. METO wording change possible , hopefully anyway!!

Better from the ECM, a cold chart at day 8 - cold enough for snow for many I’d say

Météociel froze but it looks like we do get a decent northerly, albeit temp. No doubt gone by the morning

Little low on Monday gives a better chance of some snow as it tracks further south , not too cold so not much sticking but another step in the right direction and you never know You can see the upgrade in the 850 GEFS even by day 4 compared to the 12z, be interesting to see if there’s any ENS Support for some snow on Monday.

Well the ECM mean at day 9 does suggest PM air is possible, but whether that’s cold enough away from Northern U.K. high ground is another question. A good week for Scottish ski areas hopefully!!

Indeed , and I have no doubt that it’ll be gone on the next run - but it’s nice to see some “ weather’ on the cards

The U.K. is obviously having a pretty horrific winter so far for coldies, but it’s not just us as Western Alps can’t of had fresh snow for weeks upon weeks neither, with the location of the HP. The METOs mid to end of Feb is now pretty confidently mild, therefore is an SSW the only thing that’ll swing it I wonder, and even that looks unlikely!! Baring in mind where I live, this is pretty much it for the winter so far - and I think at my altitude I should be averaging snow falling 25 days a year!! That’s not good!! I mean, it could snow every day in March I guess!!

Much better 850s than the GFS, just depends where the moisture is. GFS keep any snow chances just in Scottish hills

Something like P24 will do. A nice transition into a cold Easterly!! And yes, I know it’s a cherry picked ENS that has 0.0001 chance of being correct - but that’s still not no chance

The temperature on the FI mean into Canada is crazy, as is the PV. The GFS Control is trying to get from an ECM day 19 type set up to something better, but not sure if the Canadian sides cold/PV would help any future set up at this stage!! Mean and Control set ups at T312 below!!

Well the mean suggests we write another 10 days of Winter off, the “good” days of Winter are quickly ticking by and nothing points to anything significant just yet. We still have time though , but come the last week of Feb my preference will start swaying towards wanting a nice warm spring - unlikely I know!! There are a few ENS members heading towards what the ECM was showing at day 10 however, with heights heading up into Scandy, so will see if there’s any FI cluster with those pointing to anything colder!!

It might not be the same on the GFS but the ICON has the US Eastern Seaboard storm running up the close further West this run, which looks to help amplify the heights around Newfoundland, if this is mirrored by the FGS it may help amplify the Ridge and improve the Northerly early next week - we shall find out in about 20 mins I guess. Top image is the latest run.

Snow row for London showing 17/30 early next week, decent signal for at least a flurry

I can no longer Add Files in the box below from my IPHONE, any ideas? I have to copy and paste!! It stops me posting loads of charts that’ll never verify I suppose

putting them together the UKMO looks a little better than the GFS, slightly better ridging around Labrador and the LP now quite as big. Hopefully we can drag the northerlies West a little to bring in more chances of some snow for more people!!

Next Monday still has a little wintery possibility according to this run, and others

Yes that looks about it, quick toppler around day 7 with GEM looking about the best.