Ali1977

Some nice ENS this morning, along with a nice Op and Control FI. Thing are definitely starting to get more interesting - followed up by a pretty cold outlook for Dec from the METO we may have a “chance” of at least a decent cold spell In these situations it’s always nice to see the Air Pressure over Iceland trending higher - and this looks likely

Day 11 (not deep FI) and plenty of interesting ENS members from this run , I feel another good ECM on the way

I’d certainly take this at day 10 with it being dry and chilly, hoping for a GFS flip on the 06z!!

Vastly diff from the last run beyond day 6, just a time to look for trends in the ENS I think!!

Even by day 9 the differences in the last 2 runs are considerable, but both quite interesting in the NH - it’ll be great to have this place buzzing with pages and pages of positive and happy posts every hour!!

I’m aware this isn’t the right place for METO forecasts, however this is actually a pretty wintery outlook by their standards - they are usually pretty reserved on week 3/4. Saturday 3 Dec - Saturday 17 Dec Confidence is low, although not unusually so. The more likely outcome is that conditions will become generally settled as high pressure moves towards or over the UK, bringing drier and calmer weather than of late, especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to trend from near average towards below average at times, with an increased risk of frost and fog. Any spells of more unsettled weather are more likely to be across the south of the UK, at least for a time, whilst northern areas remain drier. This scenario would increase the chance of snow across central areas, with perhaps wintry showers in parts of the north.

Firstly, they are professionals, and secondly they have access to better weather modelling computer systems than we can see - so if we see a flip in FI charts on the GFS/ECM etc, and their update changes wording to suggest the same, then there is actually a chance of it happening. However, at this stage we have no real consistency beyond day 8 on the charts so no run should be taken too literally.

You’d think from here we’d be heading for a prolonged spell of below average temperatures should this materialise , the GEFS have been hinting at a smashed up PV in FI so hopefully the spaghetti charts start dipping as we head towards Dec. A long way off of course, best keep an eye on that long range METO!!

Up she goes

Impressive HP by day 11, things are changing quick now. This hp could well retrogress opening the door from Greenland. METO longer range looking more spot on now, in the fact that HP builds - beyond then still up for grabs. I feel a good FI coming.

Not much coming from the states and that HP looks quite well oriented to fight back - a long way off obviously, over to the 12zs!!

Day 9 on the ECM , and that’s no ordinary established PV of doom neither!! With a better looking day 10, and possible Scandy HP setting up.

Agreed, and the GEFS in FI are Interesting this morning , a few examples below. The mean also has the PV moved over to Alaska/NE Russia, with very little over Greenland which seems like a positive step for coldies. The mean, with the shifted PV.

Still nothing cold in the foreseeable, so I’ll cherry pick GEFS P15 as an example of what many of us would like to see

Stronger Scandy hp by day 7 compared to the 12z, closer to getting that easterly to the U.K. too!!

Jet stream heading on a similar southerly route on the ECM , with the PV weakening around Greenland. It’s Certainly looking better for early Dec.

Indeed , let’s hope it leads to something better down the line. Day 7 below clearly shows the HP further north and west over Scandy.

As per the METO long range, High pressure is taking hold later into Nov, with frosts starting to become more widespread in mainland Europe - still nothing for us coldies to get excited about but it’s very early days, and even late Nov is still a long way off!!

T168, and the Easterly is much stronger and colder over Europe compared to the 00z, let’s see if it can push back the Atlantic!! I have a feeling nothing will come from this, but nice to have some interest this early in the season !! It’s really trying by T192, cold getting pretty close to our East. Well the Atlantic lost the battle, not sure where it’ll end up now - a cold frosty high would be nice.

The set up from the East Collapsing a bit by day 10, but still some pretty cold uppers there. Be interesting to see if the ENS support a cold day or 2 around day 10 !!

Mmmm what do we have here, another step towards something cold from the East. -12c uppers only a few hundred miles to our east in an easterly flow No mention of this from the met so I won’t get my hopes up, but something more seasonal in the offing for sure!! PS - this would be snow showers into the SE by day 10 in this set up.

Even by T120 we have pretty big changes on the pub run, with the heights heading up and slightly west into Greenland compared to the 12z run. It may lead to nothing but at this range that’s quite a big change.

Well that’s a good ending for us coldies in the ECM, this set up looks more likely than an Scandy high - A day of cold upgrades I hope

Another run and another outcome, the HP heads into the U.K. then starts feeding up into Greenland. Interesting to see the NH PV not really forming, being attacked from all angles. I think the last 3rd of Nov could be quite interesting for coldies - a 2010 trumping Dec would do me but probably the last thing this country needs to be fair!!

The METO forecast for the next 2 weeks are defo supportive of a blocked pattern, with -NAO being the more likely solution at this stage , followed by a Scandy type high. It Doesn’t necessarily mean cold for the U.K. but will be better than wind and rain!! The mid month flip looks to have some traction, at-least for today