Ali1977

Yep, we are still flapping about without any clear direction which I guess is quite normal 10 days out. The ECM op route to cold was quite complex, it would be nice to see some straight forward ridging. That cluster 1 Mike P posted beyond T264 is a belter mind you

The 10 day mean much more “ridge like”, as Mike has pointed out in the clusters

North of Birmingham , you don’t just look at 850s at that exact moment !! if this ECM was correct the whole of the U.K. would be having an ice day by day 11 and some snow!!

Serous cold on tap, yes it’s 10 days away but at least we are in ECM range now. Want to see a good mean now.

Would you look at that , those Labrador heights held now suck up that Azores high please North Pole

Indeed, there are so many different options around day 9 it’s hard to know what to think will happen. There are some decent heights around Canada on this run though (Labrador area)

T168, about as good as we may get, the PV over Greenland is swooping SE now so we need WAA, big WAA, come on WAA, aim for Kamchatka

It’s around 9c in January for London. Anyway, the ECM will give us what we want

T300 mean is ?? means getting skewed the further you go so ill ignore

Agree, day 8/9 have some cracking ENS but it would be nice for these to start showing back up on operational runs. Maybe the ECM will bring it home

Day 9 , -5c mean for many

Colder mean by day 9 compared to the 06z Some GEFS here at day 9, cherry picked but possible outcomes

Yes, we don’t want to be here at day 12 as it’s another long road to chances again - albeit noted it’s still only 3 weeks into Jan. Lets see what the ENS do, day 10 is Deep FI

Need strong WAA in Greeny now but annoying the PV builds over Greenland again

Best set on ENS for some time I’d say. Even London’s is pretty good.

De bilt ENS show temps dropping off from the 18th with cold nights, a fair cluster get close to ice days beyond that.

A good day 10 mean, plenty cold options. Also some with High pressure hanging around like a bad smell though

A much better set of ENS coming out, I’ll post some later. I’m talking about day 9/10 and not deep FI.

A positivé - the GEFS at day 8 look more ridge like around Greenland with PV weaker over Canada Latest run bottom image

If we go with the fact FI is at about day 7 , then this isn’t a bad place to be. Beyond it could flatten , give us a cold toppler, give us a toppler that misses us, or best case WAA shoots up through the weakened PV beyond the pole. Those quoting the METO are correct in the fact no real cold is forecast by them, however with such disagreement in the medium range their long range will just float about with normal type comments such as snow on northern hills. We need to get this high pressure in place before having a good idea on what happens beyond it, all options will be possible.

What’s this, day 9/10 agreement between the GFS and ECM in our location?

Cold surface temps later next week, these are max temps freezing fog

Today’s Mogreps are much colder than yesterday’s !! A colder high I guess

Yes not much positive to say about the GFS/GEM, hopefully the ECM now jumps on the cold bandwagon. GFS sniffed it, ECM runs with it type scenario

This is pretty good from mid month, strong signal for a big cool down. Need the EC ENS to start seeing the same, likewise MOGREPS. It’s all about getting the ridge in the right place and a bit of luck with shortwaves keeping out the way