manutdmatt1986
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Posts posted by manutdmatt1986
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Liam Dutton still thinks we'll get snow:
Having looked at latest info closely, I think even S coast of Eng EAST of Isle of Portland could see 4-6 hours of snow on Friday. #uksnow
Isle of Portland is a long long way west though.
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Latest 5 day forecast is actually an upgrade for me with the heavy snow symbol appearing for the first time.
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Amber warning may get moved south and east note!
What makes you think that, Chiono?
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Right everyone chill !!
Bbc weather matt Taylor SNOW for all as it moves east across the whole country on Friday and is still there on Saturday but north of london
Yep, National forecast was good for us.
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Peter COCKcoft still going for things turning sleety on Saturday then!
What is that guy smoking? Not a single model shows that and the BBC South East forecast is different to his BBC London one.
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BBC South East were still going with the snow. Don't know if they're using the 12z data or 18z data though!
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I asked this afternoon but nobody replied so I'll try again...
With the winds swtiching to a NE'ly on Saturday would that help to hold the front over us longer?
Not if it doesn't reach us!
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that can only be the case if they have access to the 18z UKMO- IIRC goes out to 48- sadly its been ditched on the site I used to look at it on-
so who knows- I guess as usual we are waiting until the 00z model runs update-
S
I thought it might be the MOGREPS they were talking about.
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My main concern is the tweet from EssexWeather saying that the new Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday,
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Well the NAE does get there in the end, takes a little longer and the front is weakening, but snow for most of the region. Further east than the 18z GFS run
http://expert-images...011818_1618.gif
without a doubt its not the snow-fest locations further west have. Just got to accept that this is the way its going to be in this set-up. Doesn't mean we won't get snow.
That's actually not bad.
I just want some snow!!!!
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After Monday's non-event for those of us South of the Thames.
On the plus side, the GFS appears to show a lot of snow showers hitting us from off the North Sea instead.
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Could be the second non-event for much of the South East in the space of 5 days. Too early to be sure though.
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Looks like it misses us on the GFS too. Uh oh.
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EssexWeather
New Met Office run has the heavier snow dying out over Buckinghamshire on Friday. Essex is left with 1-2cm by end of day.
Bugger.
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Like i said, precip accumulations come out before all the others, so click on precip accumulations and you have the 18z data. It comes out alot earlier for some reason.
That's what I'm looking at.
+3 hours is from the 18z.
+6 to +186 hours is from the 12z.
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NAE 18z precip accumulations show another westward shift for Friday, btw before anyone says, precip accum is out before the main NAE output so it is 18z
On weatheronline the NAE 18z precipitation charts are only out to +3 hours.
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Surprised noone has mentioned the NAE- ( although the 18z t48 should be more fun)
http://expert-images...011812_1612.gif
Bang inline with the UKMO & has light snow for the south ahead of the main band- ( midnight tomorrow night)
http://expert-images...011800_1612.gif
maybe a dusting from that- to further surpress the temps friday
S
What time is the next update of the NAE, Steve?
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@ Manutdmatt
Look at the NAE image again and look at the bracketed area at the bottom, 12+48. I know where you are looking to suggest it is only 6z but that never tallies up.
The band of precipitation isn't forecast to reach eastern areas until around 3pm. The snow shown in eastern areas on that chart is not part of the main band. The NAE always throws light precipitation that isn't really there ahead of the main band. If that run of the NAE had gone on another couple of frames we would have been able to see how much precipitation it is actually showing for eastern areas.
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A friend is travelling from Kent to Wales Friday !
No they're not
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Yet again the GFS precipitation chart stands up to the NAE and I am with you somewhat with the GFS.
It is poor when it fails to deliver what you want and a god when it does. Personally I think it is consistent and that is not just about the precipitation output.
The NAE is only out to 6am Friday morning. The frontal system won't have reached most eastern areas by then.
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BBC South East - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1
BBC London - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
Click on the videos to see the difference!
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Met Office update has snow here non-stop from 12pm Friday to 6am Sunday.
The previous update had a bried drier interlude at 9am Saturday but fortunately this update has removed that
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BBC South have it snow free all day Saturday and yet the five day forecast shows it snowing here on saturday! I cannot believe that anywhere in the South (apart from perhaps Cornwall) will have rain over the weekend especially with temps dropping because of lying snow. I bet if you watched each region's forecasts side-by-side it would be a right mish-mash of information. In a nutshell - I agree with you!
BBC South East (which covers some of the same areas as BBC London) didn't mention snow turning to rain and they said it will be staying very cold.
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Even BBC South West didn't mention a return to milder conditions or snow turning to rain. If it's not going to happen down there it will not happen anywhere else so don't worry!
London & South East Regional Discussion 16/01/13 18z------>
in Regional
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