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That ECM

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Everything posted by That ECM

  1. That ECM
    Not a time to be flippant. There’s a lot riding on that bulge.
  2. That ECM
    T144 gfs biggest icon none ukmo little bulge. We are going to need to wait until T168 ukmo whether it’s bulge grows.
  3. That ECM
    T168 ukmo going to be interesting.
  4. That ECM
    Gfs has the bulge
  5. That ECM
    Or this? Ah you and si have answered. Ta
  6. That ECM
    This? Could you add a photo with a comment please be really useful.
  7. That ECM
  8. That ECM
    No bulge. @nick sussex I’m adding bulge to my output dictionary along with Shuffling high stonker ripper and Crocker.
  9. That ECM
    I posted earlier that the initial time of interest is T144. Once in the reliable then we can start looking at the west sw.
  10. That ECM
    Key time. This is where it starts imo.
  11. That ECM
    Good luck with only the south coast missing out this far out. I think you’re missing my point but hey ho.
  12. That ECM
    But you have said it’s great for us in Yorkshire, great for us in the north. Those are best served in the regional thread. Please don’t think I’m writing that based on me living in Bournemouth. let’s say Yorkshire was looking like rain and someone was from Aberdeen and was saying wow it’s brilliant for us? As I say we need to see what unfolds. There’s enough in the various output to cause doubt.
  13. That ECM
    I hope you’re right. The professionals have low confidence and looking at the various outputs you can see why. When someone has made a forecast and been strong in their wording about it, I’m not sure they take a pragmatic view of all the output if they’re showing a different outcome. I would say that there is doubt what will unfold and I will cheering on the euros.
  14. That ECM
    I hope you are right. Is it possible you are over reacting to an ecm run? There’s far too much going on and this far out a watching brief is surely the only sensible way. We don’t need to make a call on snow/rain etc this far out.
  15. That ECM
    Guinness and watching snow
  16. That ECM
    Fwiw I think it’s timing if this happens and how far north west it is. This would effect the track of lows from the west southwest. If it happens then it’s going to be awhile before we know. control is an outlier but does show what happens if it’s to far north. id be interested in thoughts? I could be talking rubbish but just how I see at this time. Right, off to the pub, need a
  17. That ECM
    T168 and already in fi for me. So many different outcomes but I’ll be honest I would prefer Greenland high drifting to scandi. May happen but I’d say least likely from what I’ve seen today.
  18. That ECM
    Hang on Mike, we’re worrying about the track of a low at T216 on the gfs.
  19. That ECM
    Here comes the very small risk the met mention. JFF
  20. That ECM
    Gfs says I’m waxing not waining.
  21. That ECM
    The key words are low confidence. A little left, a little right, little higher/lower etc and the outcome difference is potentially huge. Look at the various output over the last few days and the swings in that. Makes for great viewing and luckily we don’t need to make a forecast. I’d suggest upto T144 analyse deeply beyond observe for fun.
  22. That ECM
    Snowing
  23. That ECM
    Just a shower now at 3.00
  24. That ECM
    Within the pattern all options are possible as only when it gets to T48ish will small details be seen. Look at the se today.
  25. That ECM
    06z is very good.
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