That ECM

Just got in from work and looked at the ECM and said "get in" out loud. Mrs thinks I have gone mad. Not sure why she needed that for confirmation though. Fantastic, lets hope it looks like this for the next few runs and I can shout get in just to reconfirm her thoughts. Love the the talk of 30 cm etc. I would take 6 cm here. The beauty of living on the south coast.

Love this thread. ECM is great when showing cold and other models are not when they are not in agreement but ECM shows the cold being mixed out and now we read that the ECM has prob got this wrong!!! ECM and UKMO look great at t144. GFS has certainly moved towards ECM and much can be learnt from this period of model watching. SM detailed analysis of each model and its bias has be enlightening and something we can take forward in the future. The ECM does show the cold air getting mixed out so if it is right at T144 and has modelled this weekend correctly why would it be wrong with regards to SW? Pick the bits one likes and drop the bits we don't? For what it's worth I think the ECM will be close to the mark and therefor the later part of the run looks plausible.

Considering GFS 06z is not thought off with much affection and also it's eastern bias. This run looks good and is another set in the direction of the ECM.

Harsh, IB this year has given good analysis IMO. Not always what some want to here but if he sees the Atlantic winning then he is entitled to say. If you read his last posts you will see his reasoning if you can get passed the fact that he is not ramping cold which many don't like.

He may well agree and why should people be put on the spot when they have asked a perfectly sensible question? I love what the ECM is showing but I think it will be a watered down version come t0. A hunch more than anything else. If UKMO and GFS was more bullish then it would help my confidence but its not there and nor is the meto. They could come on board but they are not yet.

Lets be honest it is squeaky bum time! No matter how many times we tell ourselves back the ECM because GFS has not been as good previously. No one is going to be happy until GFS is on board plus meto. We can tell each other how the GFS kept showing a breakdown of the previous cold spell and then it kept being pushed back. So as I said squeaky bum time but would we have it any other way?? I have a feeling I will wake at 4 in the morning, no alarm, just my brain going check the GFS. What I do know is zonal equals good night sleep!!!

Lovely ECM and we only need one with my name!!!

Many thought ECM would backtrack. Not to night Josephine.! !

GFS and UKMO has not really shown us anything we have not seen or thought before. Bit further west by GFS but no further forward IMO. ECM may give us more indication.

If Carlsberg did forecasts! That's called having ago SI. Good luck and a great read.

GFS and UKMO at T72 ish have some fairly heavy wintry showers piling into Ireland and the north. Carried along by a strong wind.

Looking at all 3 upto t144 and they are similar. It is at this point when ECM and GFS go in different directions. They model the low over Canada differently. ECM has it travelling NE allowing the ridge to have more influence. GFS showing it haveing more influence and flattening the ridge. UKMO stopping at t144 so not able to judge. 48 hours and we should know what is going to happen with that energy which has such an impact further down the line. ECM will please coldies this morning. GFS not so. UKMO is full of potential.

Hi. I very much enjoy reading your posts. I would ask if you could expand on the last couple of lines of your " all model summary" and the last line of the post. Not being funny, just a bit confused. Thanks.

More in line with ECM and UKMO. If this trend of less of a PV being modelled it will have a big impact on the output IMO.

Have a look at the PV at t192 on GFS and ECM. The differences are large and this has an impact on the rest of the run. Many will hope ECM is nearer the mark. T216 charts on the two runs illustrate this well. Sorry not able post charts. Maybe someone could do this?

Latest nae has reduced the risk of snow, with the 42 accum chart only suggesting favoured areas of Scotland. UKMO at t144 has an interesting take on the NH profile and not dissimilar to last nights ECM. Will be interesting to see how this latest run from ECM looks at that point.

42 accumulation chart shows a different story with a line from Liverpool across to Grimsby. Taking this as gospel would suggest that parts further south would see falling snow but not settling. Something I think sm had suggested earlier. At least it wouldn't be that m4 line this time!

This was a fantastic reply by a long standing member to a new,brave, poster who stuck their neck out and had ago. I wonder what this and other less experienced members are thinking as they consider having a go at posting in the thread considering some of the, lets call them, abrasive posts. Being a salesman of life assurance( that's increased my popularity!!!) I am less precious about such matters. It would be good though if what teits said would be considered then more can post and as such learn. Anyway here is my thoughts on the output. We have lows diving se and into Europe. We have a ridge in the Atlantic that keeps trying to ridge north but energy from Canada keeps toppling it on the majority of output upto t168 ish. GFS gives us some interesting viewing long term and ECM hints at it. For what it's worth I feel that the PV is being modelled with to much energy at the moment and in future runs this will be reduced giving more opportunity for heights to build north of us. But hey, what do I know? Sorry RP just seen your post in terms of bringing order back to the thread.

Interesting summary and the first line off your post tells a story I feel. Nothing spectacular. If we are looking at the output hoping to see the spectacular, then on most occasions disappointment will be the outcome. Spectacular can only be if it is different from the norm. Your summary as usual is spot on. The problem being is that people will read what you have posted and conclude winter is over and this is not the case. As you have suggested some favoured areas will get something akin to winter. Not IMBY for many at this time but flat and zonal it isn't. Not that you are suggesting this but some are.

I would like the GEM this morning please. GFS keen for it to topple. ECM has high slightly further west but looks like it will still topple on this run. So some cold days next week as the low travels nw se after that has yet to be resolved IMO. T240 ECM is encouraging. There is less energy at this time coming out of Canada and alowing heights to build? Lets hope GEM is leading the way.

Indeed and for all those happily banging in nails to the coffin, you may need protective clothing because the cold may come and ping them back out!

Yes and it shows the mild air being replaced over the next 24 hrs or so ( depending on location) being replaced by cooler air from the north. At t72 it has - 8 850's coming into the far north. The remainder of the run shows more energy coming from the west/ north west which pushes the cold air east. Fairly wet and windy in the short term with wintry potential for favoured areas. Bournemouth not being one off them!

For those who are getting annoyed by winter is over posts, do not. It happens every year. Sometimes their right sometimes their not but on the whole they are guessing. There is enough in the output to suggest that it is not over. Unfortunately there is not enough to see a clear pattern as we go through feb. if the professionals are talking of great uncertainty then that's what there is. Ego's take over sometimes and the need to be able to say told you so will always be there.

Agreed but people keep talking about a flat pattern and therefore many would have expected that low to have passed over Scotland. If it takes that path the the potential is very good IMO.

So, who saw that coming at t216 on the ECM. Interesting, agree with tests, good runs to come over the coming days.