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That ECM

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  1. That ECM
    Good evening all. The output in the short term is good/great depending on location. The longer term is confused past t96 maybe t72. We still have the effects of the SSW and Shannon's whojamakojit playing with the output. I would suggest that much to be resolved but I see the next spell of cold coming from the NE. If you look at the differences between the big 3 in fi ie t96 plus you will see little agreement which makes for great model watching. Like to take this opportunity to say a big thanks to GP, chino and co for their input and teaching.
  2. That ECM
    Tomorrow great, Monday looking at the latest output would suggest to far north and rain. Could change tho.
  3. That ECM
    Anyone else looking at all the info, thinking, looks great but she will ring and say sorry can't make it, Hair to wash!!!
  4. That ECM
    Far reaches of GFS says you haven't seen anything yet. That would be and feel bitter. Look at the temps over Eastern Europe.
  5. That ECM
    I love the way we have pages of posts talking about charts upto t120. Rather than having to wait for the first half an hour of the run to get to charts that show a little potential. I know from posts that IF has posted that the meto are going against the nae at this time but I would like them to fall in line as well.
  6. That ECM
    GFS showing the cold heading down from the north east is something ECM has been showing on the 12z runs for a couple of days. Great to see the GFS starting to show this. Fits in with what GP has been saying for awhile and although meto do not talk of the direction the longer term out look has this type of feel.
  7. That ECM
    Not good. Hopefully they will upgrade it to 24hrs!!!!!!"
  8. That ECM
    It will change for sure. Nightmare to forecast but meto are currently going for the low to slide along the south coast. If you look at temp differences for sat you will see Bournemouth at 6 with places like Newbury not getting much above freezing. From a IMBY point of view, it would be great if the low would actually be 100 miles further south. Looking at ECM and GFS this looks unlikely at this time. As we live this far south I guess we are used to this and we end up with a wintry mix and watch pictures of other parts of the country getting pasted.
  9. That ECM
    http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5550/ECF0-240_pel7.GIF. Hope you will allow me this chart of the day!!
  10. That ECM
    With small changes making big differences people are prob unsure how to make a comment. For eg t144 would be good for the north with a wintry mix below about Birmingham. UKMO would move the line further south and GFS in between. Detail at this time is impossible but the good news is that the cold isn't going to be shoved away. The big three have an under cut at varying degrees.
  11. That ECM
    The cold moving towards us from the NE has been showing on the last three ECM runs. Fits in with what GP has been saying. Looks very interesting.
  12. That ECM
    Indeed, ice could be a real issue. Still not sure about fri sat at the moment. Get the feeling the sea might modify the air to the wrong side but here hoping I am wrong. However I am very optimistic for the last week of the month and in to feb. north east attack which would be better with no marginal temps to worry about.
  13. That ECM
    His location will tell you why he is bullish. We live in a poor are for cold and snow. The latest output for many is very good though.
  14. That ECM
    Fantastic output and with interest right now for some, interest moving to later in the week and for me huge interest later down the line (ECM) what a time to be viewing the output. The down beat comments have IMBY ring to them. Look at it from the bigger picture point of view and it is wonderful. December was not that long ago and it was t300 plus when there was something of interest for coldies. Hi JH, not always able to post a chart due to the device I am using or more probably my lack of skill in knowing how to.
  15. That ECM
    Meto now have heavy snow in the morning down here!!
  16. That ECM
    Tonight has improved and snow is due at about 3.00 am. Tomorrow event would need to upgrade dramatically to have snow here. Highly unlikely I feel but I am optimistic moving forward as I am sure the UKMO is the model with best handle on the longer term.
  17. That ECM
    Just had another look at meto website and they now have light snow over us for night. It was rain earlier. Window, lamppost job.
  18. That ECM
    Yes. Still much interest later in the week but as we know snow here is as rare as rocking horse poo!
  19. That ECM
    I would not disagree but many would take this run. T144 and t 168 are much improved for cold compared to previous ECM runs. Not able to post charts as on phone. This will raise a few eyebrows in the NE and the SW.
  20. That ECM
    I agree it is possible but equally, so is unstable pattern. All conjecture but interesting. In the here and now, we are not sure who or where the rain snow line will be in t24/48. There is one thing that we can take forward from this episode of model watching and that is when an SSW in forecast and comes into being, FI starts at t72 and normal rules and expectations are out the window. Ask IB. This has and is fascinating viewing, snow or not, long may it continue.
  21. That ECM
    No assumption. No cold no snow. If we have sustained period of cold then snow will appear especially if the uppers become very cold and there is a strong breeze as others have pointed out. For now though, there are a few chances in the coming week and we will see where we go from there.
  22. That ECM
    Not the first time ECM has hinted at this in fi. The real cold heading our way for the end of the month? Worth watching.
  23. That ECM
    ECM backs down a bit but t144 says no.
  24. That ECM
    The PV has the look of something that has had a good kicking. The split allows heights to build. Fantastic. ECM follow please.
  25. That ECM
    Ens out soon. Then we can see where it sits. Has to be on the milder side doesn't it? What ever happens along day ahead. Three runs before the ECM. Lets hope the ECM run isn't confirmation of a break down.
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