That ECM

Morning. Latest ens for London have mean 850's at -5 around the 8th a 45% chance of snow a few days later upto 50%. Why do you find this of little interest. Not being funny, just trying to learn. I think it looks encouraging but you must be seeing it differently. Thanks.

Dec 12 th 2 p.m.

You change your mind more than my Mrs!!!! He has given, on more than one occasion, detailed analysis on why SSW can give us cold and why it will work against sometimes. The need to look at the output showing mild and then make ref to the SSW is more yours. You have said this is an area you do not understand. A little knowledge is dangerous. Why not learn more about this area and see its effects because clearly you are bright enough to read output, it may become an area of great interest to you. Reading posts from respected posters arguing, not discussing, is like watching your parents argue when your a child. It is most unpleasant. Not actually needed IMO but if you feel the need, then pm each other and save us the annoyance of having to read it please.

The talk of average/good/bad is a matter of opinion but has little to do with model discussion I would suggest. For that matter t240 on ECM offers hope, it would be nice to see this develope.

That's what he had told you. I've been in the pub with him for two hours!!!!

North west Dorset must be getting some heavy snow, can anyone confirm?

Turned more sleety here. Looking out of window thinking if only! Might need to take a drive up north to you guys. If what we are getting is snow for others, it will be very heavy.

Bath looks like it could have heavy snow for a period today.

Agreed the output from sat from a cold perspective is not great. If you can look at charts and then translate that into what it would actually give us should they be a true reflection of what will happen. However there are those who have the ability to look at other info and make an informed forecast. Meto longer term favour cold at the moment. GP and others also. A poor analogy this maybe but it's a bit like someone saying that team a will beat team b. then team b going one nil up early and every five minuets someone saying the team you forecast to win are still losing. Not until the end will we know how things panned out. To be quite frank, I am surprised GP and others share their thoughts if they then are constantly told their team are losing.

No doubt you can read the output. People are perhaps upset that whilst commenting on the output you often make reference to GP and co. and the output not currently showing their thoughts.

No.

A lot of what you say makes sense. I would add though, you are looking at the output and making a judgement for the rest of the winter based on ten day charts. Previous experience of it being difficult to get out of the pattern. However we know a lot has happened to the NH and more still go on. Wait ten days and see if there is a trend a lot of people including the meto do not think winter is over. Just seen NS has similar thoughts.

Are sure this pic is this year and not 2010. 1 mile in land from there, did not have that much.

SW that has missed in places may get some fun during mon.

Latest nae suggest something of interest at t30 plus. Interesting to see how this may develop.

Moderate or light?

What a period of model watching. First looking for snow coming from the SW. Now looking to France to see if snow is coming from there and how far west and north will it get. Then where will the system coming from the west go, a long the channel? Brilliant.

Think you will be reporting much more than that over the coming days!

Taking the output as is, I would say that up until Wednesday atleast, many places will stay cold with chances of snow. All three show the system coming up from France. NAE shows this on the latest output. Areas in the East look more prone to getting snow. How far west will it get? Looking at it currently, Birmingham could be involved. However this will change I am sure. Longer term, the Atlantic is shown to make in roads over us. Depending which model you view, the timing of this and how far it makes it is questionable. The last frame of ECM is in no way mild but a little warmer than currently. Where we go from there is yet to be decided but who would bet against an attack from the North East. Sorry cant post charts.

I do and have been there often. Not a good feeling. Nothing better than seeing everyone get snow.

Nice to see the snow falling again. Light but persistent. Not sleet or rain!!

Just driven from Christchurch to Ashley. We have about two centre meters they have four inches. The difference is amazing. Just those few miles in land. New forest look beautiful.

Meto have it turning to rain later for down here. IF thought it may not, has anyone seen the latest on this? Great to see the snow coming down at the mo.

Or a sledge!

Now that is good news. Last this happened was years ago. Thanks for your imput. Very much appreciate, especially at what must be a busy time.