That ECM

Yet another run with major volatily between runs. Will the 12z's sort it out. Not a chance. Looking upto t72 we have a general theme, there after, pick one you like because all options on the table.

Short term, much of interest with many seeing something wintry. From Wednesday onwards, wait and see. Now eastenders theme (drum bit)!

Salisbury plane could be interesting for that. Bit of elevation and in the right area. Plenty more opportunity for other areas as we move into the early part of next week. What's more, need to get closer to the events to nail PPN.

GFS consistent but not perhaps correct. Like I tell the good lady often!!! Lets not lose sight of the shorterm whilst the mid term is so uncertain. Much of interest to many.

Looks good out to t120 to me. I don't understand a lot of the comments on here. Heights building in the right place.

GFS says i am all in at t90. So ECM, are you going to call or fold?

I think your at the front of this roller coaster. So far today, after reading your posts, I have been through all the ups and downs. We have had leaning to EC, then battle ground, now the 8th of dec 1990!!!!!! Thanks for the imput. Time to get off the ride for a bit. Back on in 13 mins tho.

I think it may be worth another read of his posts. He said that they are leaning that way but EC was prob an outlier. Also he talked of huge uncertainty. A day or so ago, he described this weekend and next week as normal winter with the effects of the SSW to be shown in output in the 8 days or so. If we look at the ens they are currently showing a cold dip around 13th for a few days and then on average tracking back up to the average. This kind of ties in with their latest forecast. This is where the talk of battle grounds comes into play. If it plays out like that, then the FI for detail will be at t24 due to a few miles here or there will have a big impact. The east would be more favourable in term of being winterey due to the cold air coming from that direction. What I would like is for heights to be shown NW of us then there is more chance for most to see what most would like. As much as it will be of great interest to see the runs this evening, I am sure it will not give the clarity that most of us crave.

I think people are becoming overly obsessed. What some crave is clarity yet the output shows anything but. If you take the Meto current forecast, no strong signal moving forward and lots of uncertainty. That's from people who are good at this. Then you look at GFS, ECM etc. showing a multitude of options. Often human nature is to pick something and go with, that's because people don't like uncertainty. They would rather guess than just think that there is insufficient evidence or consistency to make a judgement. If the professionals are saying lets wait and see what emerges then I think that's what we have to do if we wish to be pragmatic. Either way it is edge of your seat viewing if you prefer one type of weather over another.

The ECM is consistently inconsistent on the whole. However, the last couple of runs need to be taken seriously. Not a done deal but a concern for the cold lovers. We need heights to build in the north west or a flatter pattern will be the outcome.

The way some converse with each other is awful. So the output is not as good this time round is not a prerequisite to have a go and be rude surely.

True but is that the way you think this would play out considering all that is going on to the PV currently and forecast to be kicked again? I would suggest this will not be the case.

Freezer or bin GFS you have been warned!!!

I think that the output is fascinating and what's more if you look at the GFS and ECM runs, couple that with the commentary from the experienced members, so much can be learnt. Now, which is nearer the mark only time will tell. Thanks That ECM. Lets hope that a new member joins with the name the ECM that delivered.

Hi nick. Firstly, many thanks for all your imput, especially considering your locality. Your imput for our area is much appreciated. Looking at it from your area, it's is looking really good and if this was showing over us, most would not be able to curb their enthusiasm. Lets hope that the high pressure, currently modelled to be over or near us, can drift north west and the finger of cold uppers can be come a bit more crooked and drag some over us. Many thanks again fella. Regards. That ECM

With regards to your first paragraph. The scatter, I think, will impart be due to the different modelling of the high pressure over or near to us at the time range you talk. Much to be sorted before that tho.

I am cautiously very excited. I am cautiously throwing caution to the wind and expect it to be great whilst letting me down at the same time. There that covers all of that. Back to the fascinating models. I know things go wrong. That's how I chose my name. Thanks to the people who are giving detail analysis on the output. What a great way to learn.

A huge scatter. To be expected considering what's going on a few miles up above the pole. Love the way people read 1 run then make a forecast!

As always ref t120 but fun to look at the rest and hypothersise! It the rules, I don't make them up. Regards that ECM

The plot thickens. With some real eye candy on offer. I would like to see the ECM trend more towards the GFS. Knowing the models, ECM will show good heights building to the north and GFS will drop the idea on the next run. I do like the move forward by UKMO this morning and the fact it only goes to t144 maybe the limit of time we should look at in detail until we get to see how the SSW plays out. Regards. That ECM

Wow. Some new year hangovers still in place I think. This is an evolving situation. The SSW is due to happen in 4 ish days time. The impact of that is not known by anyone. What I am surprised at, is people are looking at the output and making a forecast until March!!!! Game over it isn't, game changer it maybe. Regards That ECM Mr Murr, please come back from the dark side!

I am surprised that most seem down with last output. It looks like with a few tweaks here and there, we would be looking at some very exciting charts. The blocking, to my eye, seems to be moving from our N E to our North and now trending N W. again this is encouraging. I wish I could post charts to show but on my phone. Overall, happy thus far with the way it is heading. Regards. That ECM.

Lots of talk about previous winters and comparisons. This is winter 12/13 and as such will be and have its own individual nuances. When finished, I think then we can say that it was similar to blah blah. I never buy into saying a period or season will be the same as ..... Because the weather will just make a fool out of you. If it was the case, then people would not get it so spectacularly wrong and weather forecasting would have no interest. Happy New year. Regards. That ECM

Agreed PV weaker but the energy coming out of Canada on this run then gets pushed north as its hits the pressure near us. This sends that energy to the place we would like to see the heights build. UKMO makes less of the energy at t144 and if there was later frames, I think more heights would build to the north than is seen on this GFS run.

I expect ECM to start to show a change this evening and have more of a look like the GFS. Go back 4/5 days and GFS was much flatter than what is showing now. I expect the NH to change in the next few runs and this will show more heights in that area. Happy New Year. Regards. That ECM.