That ECM

Very wise not to get to excited about charts that are in fi. Also not wise to view current output with past experiences/ let downs affecting your judgement. Two references in your post talking about how this winter has panned out. This can effect objectivity. Finally, I see that RP edited your initial post and I hazard a guess you were upset by quip. Apologise if this was the case, no offence was meant and the written word is always open to miss interpretation.

The logic is working a treat. All I need to do is make a forecast and something different will happen.

Funny that,t192 always 8 days away!!!!!!

And who could blame them. It has been hard enough to forecast for upto t72. Might add that over the short term they have done very well for much of the winter. Like most on here though we are looking seven days plus for that beast. Certainly not having ago at sm, I have learnt so much especially with regards to the model bias. The ones we can see anyway!!

If this output was showing at beginning of winter, I would be very enthused as I am sure there would be more opportunities further down the line. However we are not and as such we will need a direct hit this time around. Will we get it? Personally, I think cool and predominately dry would be my guess with the pressure not quite getting far enough north. Cool dry and a reaquantance with the big yellow disc occasionally. Now that prediction should sort out the 12zs and I await watching the pressure move north west dragging in a raging easterly and connective showers just to prove me wrong.!! There is logic in there somewhere, honest.!

Totally agree, if the high sits over us then the cold air will go below us. T240 demonstrates this. As good as ECM looks it could be showing the block to far nw west of us. Meto outlook would suggest to me that they do not see the block as ECM would have us believe but more over us. Time will tell but at least it's the ECM that's showing us this. As sm demonstrated it is has been doing well of late.

Snowing in Bournemouth. Just enough yesterday to stop playing golf after six holes. Due to play again, I wonder. Checked meto yesterday morning, dry and cold! Today, dry and cold. If ever we needed evidence that snow is hard to forecast!

50/90 cm!!! When will you start ramping?!!!!

Been here in dec, must of missed that!!! ECM continuining with some serious blocking to the nw. That would give winter a big finish. Lets watch with interest.

Less ramping in the thread!!!! Would be nice but very unlikely. Anyway, UKMO at t144 is interesting. Looks like the low will undercut generating strong easterly and two foot of snow for all!!!!!

Why are we having an autopsy on the winter it isn't dead.

Now turn it around and think of the implications of doing what you suggest. No warnings, snow up grades nearer the time and they start putting out warnings giving the public little notice. They can go with what they see, explain it is uncertain and keep the public upto date. The fact is you have read to much into their warnings, disregarded the bits of uncertainty and are now disappointed because you feel that you are not going to get as much snow. Stop having ago at the meto in a situation that is a forecast nightmare.

Which part of the Cotswolds? Near burford area?

Latest nae output does put parts of the se in the game. However the 48 accum chart will disappoint many. I am unable to post the charts to demonstrate. Maybe someone could post the accum chart. Sm has posted the chart showing se.

One of the best things from this winter has been watching the output unfold and the learning we have gained. The tech thread is and has been superb as has commentary from many on here. I understand frustration that many have felt and continue to feel but we live in the uk and the sledge has been out once and for Bouremouth that is a big tick in the box. Anyway the big southward correction of the impending low has not been modelled yet!!!!

I have a horrible feeling that it is going to get very fractious in here over the next few days with good news for some and bad for others. For most of our sanity I would ask for regional good /bads to be in regional threads. An ever changing story with upgrades and down. JH has said on many occasions, look to forecast snow no more than 24 hours ahead this is great advice IMO especially as it is such a complicated situation. For those that get some fun enjoy and post pics in gallery for those that don't.

Enjoy your posts and certainly could not reply in any other language. Just can't get allo allo out of my head when I read your posts. I know it's set in a different country and please take it in the good humour it is meant.

What about the preceding 80 to 100 hours? and of course a t192 chart won't change? Thankfully I am able to look and see charts and make up my own mind but before I was able to do this, this sort of commentary would make me feel down. New comers and the less experienced will be confused by your commentary which is misleading.

If the t120 chart were to verify. Some places would experience blizzard conditions for awhile. The winds are not as strong on the UKMO at the same time. At t144 the block to the NE is strengthening with a movement towards gh. Chino and BFTP were discussing this last night. Many will like this chart as we hold a fairly strong NE flow for many, keeping the cold uppers in place. How's your nerves?

Just read at least ten pages posts to catch up from yesterday. Very interesting, having a look at the output this morning and last night the summary is it is to close to call for some areas. Some areas will do well and some will miss out altogether. Detail is going to be near on impossible until t24 ish and possibly nearer. A few miles here or there will make the world of difference to some. Not a dissimilar position to jan in terms of it being a now cast situation although synopticaly a bit different. Longer term, is in IMO looking less likely for the cold to stay in situ but a week is a long time and there is much to look forward to for many. I think I will need to read about most of it from IMBY point but still good for all those in the more favourable places. If you are of a nervous disposition the latest out put from GFS, gem and UKMO are not going to help, nor the constant checking of various nae etc to see if it is going to snow, sleet or rain over your house. ECM just about to roll out. It will be interesting viewing but it won't give much clarity I feel.

Depends what you mean by NE though. Through the block or over the top off it. The later would be good for a gh IMO.

Just for fun. What about the 12z's any predictions? SW etc?

Often people ask me what the weather will be like tomorrow as they know I am interested. Normal reply, no idea but BFTP recons it's going to get cold from about the 24 th!!! All very interesting they say but is going to rain this afternoon? Go check the meto site I say because unless snow is forecast I have little interest and therefore no idea. I guess many a poster would fall into this space.

Brilliant, more t300 plus charts to go chasing, then a SW pops up at t72 ish and that's that. Still, love model watching so I will be following. Should know better but I think I prefer looking at the output than actual weather!!!!

If you are going by the latest info then I am not sure central ares we see much. This looking out to next Monday. Cold rain would be likely in most areas. It can change tho. Lets hope so.