Yarmy

Reading that article, one surefire way of a particle of that size to find its way into the Stratosphere would be if it hitched a ride on a "specially designed balloon".

Cheers.

Spent Christmas in Sydney once. Bizarre experience: there were shops open and everyone went down the beach in the afternoon.

Typo, surely? Presumably should be 2C.

Just so I'm reading that right, the top analogue to today was the 6th October 1962, the next closest 6th October 2008, etc? Is there any mileage in this analogue business (at this range)? I'm pretty sceptical: it would make LRFs a doddle,

62-63, lol. That was a lot of words to say -NAO. Seriously, who are they? A reputable forecasting outfit, or Madden in a shed? Edit: Just read a few of his posts and his blog profile says one of his favourite films is The Day After Tomorrow. I wonder if that might, er, "influence" his forecasts somewhat to the cold side.

Off topic, but does anyone know exactly how the CET is calculated these days, i.e. which stations are used, etc? I'm just wondering why things often get adjusted after the month ends.

Not much to add. ECM great from start to finish with the blocking high holding on over us throughout (hopefully it can squeeze out an extra couple of days when I'm at Centerparcs ) Cold uppers flooding into Siberia/Russia/Asia. Long may it continue.

There is zero correlation between a hot spell in September in the UK and the forthcoming Winter. Did the freezing cold Spring presage the superb July? Of course not. Does the cold few days we are having presage a freezing Winter? Of course not. To compare: ...and 2011... Not much in common there (apart from the rather shapely ridge over us). In fact, the 2011 chart screams raging polar vortex versus the 2013 arctic high. But again, no conclusions can be drawn because you know, it's September.

They are webcams from Ski Resorts (snoweye.com) At the moment they all look like Ski Sunday 2080.

And such weedy spots. Anyway, longest run of sub-100 10.7cm solar flux since July 2011. A fair way to go in the cycle yet though: New Scientist article on the question of how sunspots should be counted: http://www.leif.org/research/NS-Sept-2013-Sunspots.pdf

Boo, killjoy. :-)You had your fun in the 90s and 00s, it's our turn now. Alas, it's a lot more than just a cold pool to our East that's required to deliver the goods.

ECM T240 Uppers And at the same time last year: Now, my point is that if you like cold, this year's chart is better. Why? Because, the cold is right in the place it needs to be at this point in the year. Meanwhile, we get lovely warm settled conditions which will hopefully help the Autumn colours too. Everyone's a winner.

A little enthusiasm doesn't hurt though, does it? We'd have had 10 pages of OMG, BOOM, etc in Winter.

Agree. Those cold uppers are wasted here. During October, I'll be looking at Siberia/Russia and Asia as that's where we want the cold pooling. Besides, settled conditions and sunshine make for a better Autumnal display by the trees.

The grey is a mask that hides the places where the skill level of the model is expected to be less than 0.3. So, basically it's saying absolutely no idea. I'm prepared to believe it might have a chance of predicting broad trends (e.g. positive pressure anomalies to the N, for example), but even then it's hard to know because I can't find any verification stats.

Ok, I've been looking through the CFS. There are 120 ensemble members each using one of 4 daily runs from the past 30 days as its initial conditions. The 40 members from the first 10 days are averaged together in the first set E1, the next 40 from days 11-20 are E2, and E3 is the last 10 days. Here's the current E1,E2, and E3 for 2m Temp anomalies in December: Note the huge swathes of grey. As the key states, those are areas of expected skill less than 0.3. Or 'useless' in other words. The UK is always grey. Even the bits that aren't grey don't show a great deal of consistency: mostly it's just white meaning anything from -0.5c to 0.5c.

To my eyes, it looks like there is something for everyone in the current output. A decent (presumably) last shot of Summer and at the weekend too. Meanwhile into the week after a mass of cold pools over Russia preparing to deliver us something when it actually means something... 21c or 25c? Who cares, I'm going to the beach on Sunday.

With those uppers and clear skies, it would burn off in no time I'd have thought?

Who's worried about that if we get a nice day or three? Anyway, I'd bank these uppers (albeit at 2am!). And look at that Siberia-bound cold.

Agree, and on reflection, it's probably best to avoid indulging rather obvious attention-seeking. Anyway, this chart doesn't look like much with a low passing the far North but it delivered a beautiful clear crisp day in East Anglia:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2005/archives-2005-11-12-12-0.png Oh yeah, and I got married a couple of hours later. :-)

Yes, but for there to be a thrill there has to be danger, no?

But is that really a favourite archive chart? With all the glorious summers available? If someone posted a dismal wet cold July chart and claimed it as an all-time favourite, I would question their motives, wouldn't you?

I like Britain's climate. If we were guaranteed hot summers and freezing winters there'd be no fun in the chase. I must admit I'd quite like a New England autumn though.

I thought you only liked heat and long hours of daylight, Gaz? 15c, really?