Yarmy

And the irony is that they are the first to put the boot into the Met Office for perceived forecast failures.

Ah, Autumn, my favourite time of the year. Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness and football. For a really intense colour display, we need adequate rain from now on and cold, bright, sunny days later on. So some of that please.

The squashed dartboard low has returned in the ECM FI, albeit further North. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013080100/ECM1-192.GIF?01-12 That's a right prune if you live in the far North.

And some hope is better than Rockall.

At least the monster low from last night has disappeared. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013073012/ECM1-216.GIF?12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013073100/ECM1-192.GIF?31-12 We still have a mass of very warm continental air to tap into, so no need to get disheartened yet, and as we've seen over the last few days it only takes minor tweaks in the distribution of pressure to bring it to us.

Followed by several lows and a very deep depression. (Only joking Best thing I ever did, so Mrs Yarmy tells me)

<quote>On a sunny day you are warm walking around at street level, if you go to the top of a building or to the top of a high hill it's even hotter - fitting in with being nearer the sun.</quote> This is not true. Temperature decreases with height (up to a point), so the top of a hill is not warmer than the bottom except in very specialized circumstances. The atmosphere is largely transparent to the incoming short-wave solar radiation, so the Sun does not heat the air around you directly. The surface absorbs the incoming SW radiation and emits long-wave IR radiation which does lead to heating of the air around you. The distance from the Sun doesn't really matter, it is insolation that is important, which is why it's cold in the NH hemisphere winter even when the Earth is closest to the Sun. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolation

Optimistic 14.8C

Alas, I have to tell you it often snows here in Norfolk too.

The irrepressible combination of Jonathan Powell and the Daily Express: April 30th: Britain gets ready for driest May on record http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/395810/Britain-gets-ready-for-driest-May-on-record May 8th: Pack away your BBQs. Gale force winds and rain are here to stay http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/397916/Pack-away-your-BBQs-gale-force-winds-and-rain-are-here-to-stay

Not true based on the most recent evidence. See page 9 here: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI%20(Reconstructions).pdf

This 2005 paper predicts a (continued) polewards shift of the jet stream: http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Yin_stormtracks.pdf It's not unreasonable to suggest that the 15 coupled climate models used here would have simulated the arctic ice melt we observe. "The poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented by the increased surface temperature gradient in the SH, and is partially offset by the reduced surface temperature gradient in NH winter. The poleward shift of the storm tracks tends to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the NAM and SAM. "

So why didn't anyone say the jet stream would buckle, trend southwards and flood northern Europe with cold air? And what happens next winter when the jet stream rages over Northern Scotland instead? Hindsight makes experts of us all. (I'm in a bad mood btw after getting mugged by the linesman at Arsenal )

Solar variance between min and max contributes at most 0.1K difference to global surface temps. As for Arctic ice loss causing the cold(ish) winter and exceptionally cold March in the NH, well I'm with Hans Von Storch on this: it would be good if someone had predicted it 10 years ago.

Crazy GFS in which we get 4 seasons in one run. Sahara heat one week and -12 uppers into Scotland the week after. I suppose it will be newsworthy if it verifies.

I got minor sunburn at Carrow Road today and the thermometer in my car got higher than the 7c showing there!

This evening's ECM is making my joke guess look worryingly close to coming off. With so much cold air still around the continent, you wouldn't bet against a few warm/cold swings in the 2nd half of the month.

Now this is exactly what I'm looking for: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 Uppers aren't spectacular, but settled clear skies are perfect conditions for a bouncy castle in the garden on young Niamh's 2nd birthday.

Of course, all of our energy comes from the Sun (apart from geothermal vents etc, but they are negligible). What matters is if the TSI varies enough on medium to long term timescales to noticeably affect our climate. The numbers say not which is why "amplification" mechanisms are proposed like GCR increasing cloudiness or whatever. But all this is very debatable. What isn't debatable is that CO2 concentrations are increasing and we are causing it. The physics says that will lead to some warming. As far as it goes I think runaway warming is highly unlikely (the Earth has had - literally - millions of opportunities to burn away into greenhouse hell in the past when concentrations have been higher which suggests there is an in-built cap on sensitivity) so I'm not an alarmist. I will happily eat my headgear though if we do plunge into a mini ice age.

Is this the first public sighting of the mysterious MOGREPS? Quite exciting if so, but a bit depressing if you're after something warm.

The reconstruction there only goes back 1500 years though. This one disagrees with your statement: http://news.ku.dk/all_news/2011/2010.8/arctic_sea_ice/ It's certainly disappearing fast now though, so perhaps the rate is unprecedented?

There's no doubt that the Sun appears to be trending towards a Maunder Minimum type period of reduced activity: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png But does this mean we are entering another Little Ice Age because of it? I think probably not: http://www.leif.org/research/Another-Maunder-Minimum.pdf I would refer everyone in particular to page 34. There's no doubt there was some overlap between the coldest part of the LIA (in the 17th century) and the Maunder Minimum, however the entire LIA is generally reckoned to be the period 1300-1850. It seems to me there's enough internal variability in the climate system with its multiple oscillations (ENSO, AMO, etc) to cause large decadal fluctuations to account for much of what is witnessed historically, and the 17th Century was quite active volcanically. Still, who knows?

Coldest April (Aprils in fact) on record had a CET of 4.7 March CET is going to come in 2.5-3.0 probably. So no chance.

Lake Agassiz is no more though, so without any other huge glacial lakes to freshen the North Atlantic Drift that's not going to happen (and I know you're only joking). What we have i think here is just huge high pressure over the high arctic forcing the cold air south. It's unusual, but it's just weather (imo, of course).

Mushy, can I ask what it is you do for a living?