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Yarmy

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Everything posted by Yarmy

  1. Yarmy
    Certainly hope so, I've forgotten what the Sun looks like.
  2. Yarmy
    It's been a great winter at T240, it has to be said.
  3. Yarmy
    So I hear a lot about how bad the GFS 06z run is (and to some extent the 18z so-called pub run). Being a fairly unexperienced member of this forum and always willing to question to conventional wisdom, I thought I'd have a look for some numbers and found this: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_fyang.pdf It seems that the 06z is indeed the least skilful and the 00z the most; however the differences are very small and have been since 2007. Most interesting to me though was this section: Question 2 Since the forecast skills of 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as the 00Z and 12Z cycles, what is the benefit for running these two extra cycles? Answer For short-range forecast ( ~ 3 days), the later 06Z cycle does show better forecast skills than the earlier 00Z cycle when both are validated at the same verification time. For medium and longer range forecast, the later 06Z cycle is not significantly different from the earlier 00Z cycle. Similarly, the 18Z cycle is better than the 12Z cycle for short- range forecast, but not significantly different from the 12Z cycle for medium and longer range forecast. Something to bear in mind perhaps when summarily dismissing a particular GFS run.
  4. Yarmy
    Any precipitation from the continent would also pass over a relatively warm North Sea and (presumably) be welcomed by nice dry cold surfaces. But we're a way away from that yet: I'm just grateful we've got some pretty synoptics in the semi-reliable.
  5. Yarmy
    Off-topic, so move if necessary mods, but is MOGREPS likely to make it into the public domain at some point, or will it remain a commercial offering?
  6. Yarmy
    And the METO has something we don't need to worry about: responsibility.
  7. Yarmy
    Crikey, we're under attack from aliens! Well it was only a matter of time, imo, and it makes sense that they would target the UK's hub of power first.
  8. Yarmy
    Corbyn Solar Sausage The worst of all: a real snowstopper, but also a handily convenient forecast buster. Anyway, so much variation in the models it's hard to have any confidence in anything but the removal of the stubborn PV lobe over Canada at least brings some possibilities.
  9. Yarmy
    The technical term is confirmation bias. The informal version, as Yogi Berra said, is "If I hadn't believed it, I wouldn't have seen it!". You can always find an ensemble member or op run that shows you what you'd like.
  10. Yarmy
    The Canadian PV lobe begins its retreat at about T84. That's what I'll be looking for in this evenings' runs. As for tomorrow...well as Norbert Wiener said "The best model of a cat is a cat" so I'll be looking out my window.
  11. Yarmy
    Very damp, but Ian F told us to ignore the raw output for the earlier run so presumably we can do the same again?
  12. Yarmy
    It's actually snowing here right now. Rain at first, then sleet, now snow. Not very heavy though, and far too wet to settle.
  13. Yarmy
    As as per the last cold spell, will this thread split amicably for a cooling off period followed by a mild reconciliation?
  14. Yarmy
    Only out to Sunday 6am as yet. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= So far, so wet, unless you live North of the M62. But the more interesting (hopefully!) stuff comes later, so we'll have to wait for this evening before that picture starts to emerge.
  15. Yarmy
    NAE coming into range soon: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= So for me now, it's... 1. NAE 2. Radar 3. Window
  16. Yarmy
    Appreciated. Every day's a school day.
  17. Yarmy
    I confess to having an excess of Shannon entropy when it comes to understanding what Boyden modification means? :-)
  18. Yarmy
    Could happen http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/dc/SnowballSimulations.jpg Bermuda has shifted somewhat since then though, and the entire NH landmass is missing, so perhaps this is unlikely to pan out synoptically.
  19. Yarmy
    For the first time in 2 months I can actually see Greenland.
  20. Yarmy
    Moderate to heavy snow here now. Not settling.
  21. Yarmy
    Mainly, but read Jason's post above for a more detailed (and better!) breakdown.
  22. Yarmy
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation
  23. Yarmy
    Why is the forecaster dressed as a clown?
  24. Yarmy
    Couldn't disagree more. Considering the complexity of the problem, they are borderline miraculous. Compare for Earthquake prediction models: zero progress in decades of trying.
  25. Yarmy
    Are we forecasting what the models will do or looking at what the models are forecasting?
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