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Yarmy

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Everything posted by Yarmy

  1. Yarmy
    No. Growing up in a council house with no CH in the harsh winters of the early 80s has hardened me somewhat to the cold. And, honestly, unless you are sleeping halfway up a mountain in Scotland it isn't remotely cold yet.
  2. Yarmy
    Gavin would be chuffed It really needs to go and visit Greenland for an extended period starting at the end of November, occasionally stretching over to Scandinavia.
  3. Yarmy
    I'm not really sure, as other sources seem to think it has a much better chance.
  4. Yarmy
    If I'm reading the following correctly (h/t to JH on the Model thread), probably not? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054339.shtml?hwindloop?#contents
  5. Yarmy
    From memory, the pattern has been for the Greenland-sourced depressions to get pushed further North as the runs go by. Looking further South, all the models show what I presume is Tropical Depression 09 petering out although the GFS makes a little more of it. I guess these things have some influence on the Azores High and thus create quite a bit of uncertainty in the output for our little target.
  6. Yarmy
    Just need to look at the CET record and compare positive anomalies for JJA with the following winter. I doubt there's any statistical significance to be honest. After all, we've just had an exceptionally cold spring followed by a hot summer. How often does that happen?
  7. Yarmy
    Ah, you know winter is drawing closer when we get the first 'Nut in a shed predicts Snowmaggedon' forecast posted.
  8. Yarmy
    Indeed, misty mornings, milky sunshine, the crisp air, the changing light as the sun lowers in the sky, the autumn colours transforming the landscape. The slow transition of the seasons is one of the joys of living where we do. I can't imagine living in a place where it was relentlessly warm or cold all year round.
  9. Yarmy
    The ECM and UKMO are objectively, indisputably better models than the GFS up to T144. Beyond that and they all fall off a cliff. This is done by measuring what they predicted against what happened: it is inarguable. Now it may be that for our small corner of the world the above figures don't hold, but I think that unlikely.
  10. Yarmy
    Ah, Keats. Not sure he had the M25 in mind though.
  11. Yarmy
    Sounds like absolutely perfect September weather to me.
  12. Yarmy
    I'm not entirely convinced the sun has risen today.
  13. Yarmy
    Why doesn't Gibby post his summaries himself anymore? They really are superb.
  14. Yarmy
    Just for our Yarmouth-based members: Triangle of doom, indeed
  15. Yarmy
    GFS 06Z op still not interested and keeps us in a coolish Northerly flow out to next Thursday. Be surprised if it maintains the trend on later runs because a. it is very different to ECM/UKMO which are objectively better models and b. it would shred my September CET forecast
  16. Yarmy
    ECM and UKMO still significantly better than the rest at that range too:
  17. Yarmy
    Goldilocks output overall after the weekend. Not too cold, not too hot. Nothing much to complain about, whatever your preference.
  18. Yarmy
    Mine says the same. Mind you, it's only 40 miles up the road in Lincolnshire.
  19. Yarmy
    I'd just wait until Friday and let Nature do it for you.
  20. Yarmy
    And then another 3 and a half months to get back to where we are today.
  21. Yarmy
    Hurricane season has not really kicked into gear yet either. Are the two related?
  22. Yarmy
    Wasn't Nov 2012 characterised by a very cold strat, yet we were a hair-breadth away from a monster Easterly in Dec?
  23. Yarmy
    Well I eventually found the model threads for Dec 2009 (they were in the Weather DIscussion and Chat section then). DIdn't learn much though as it was just thousands of pages of people saying Wow and hardly anyone posting a chart. :-) However, I did notice that despite no SSW the Strat was anomalously warm in November.
  24. Yarmy
    Yeah, the rain in GEM falls mainly on the Spain. Hey ho, let's see what the ECM does.
  25. Yarmy
    Just backing their own model then which parks the low right on top of us. We'll see.
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