Yarmy

Thanks, these are great. Some amusing quotes in there: "it seems nino is packing a punch, also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball. i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter. its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on."

Is it possible to access the model output discussion threads from a few years back? I'm particularly interested in finding the discussion for December 09 (which delivered a ton of snow IMBY).

Just looking at the GFS 06Z op and the cut-off low just sits there spinning over Ireland for about a week. I've only been model-watching for about a year: is that unusual?

Looking through the GEFS perturbations, probably P2 about the best for the weekend: P11 probably the worst: Like the Cap'n, I'll start looking for cool and autumnal at the start of October. Meanwhile, carpe diem. Where's Frosty: is he re-generating into Winter mode?

Right click the image and save it to your pc. Then upload it from there.

Did a model comparison for Saturday afternoon (Bewilderwood with the kids!), but it's a waste of time really because small adjustments can make such a big difference. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=120&size=2 Genuine lol at the CMA although to be fair it seems to be showing the run from 31 Aug instead of the most recent run. Nevertheless, if people are posting CMA charts in January you'll know we are in trouble.

I've noticed a sort of Godwin's Law on Netweather whereby every thread eventually becomes a discussion about Winter.

How do you even know who he is? Anyway, last year's Strat thread started at the end of September as the PV begins in earnest so I expect that's when many of the WInter guys start posting agan.

Then the GFS pub run is your friend as we are warmish and reasonably settled into deepest, darkest FI. Personally, I'm in warm mode from April to September, but come October I'm looking for something cooler and seasonal.

We need just the right conditions to get a vivid display: plenty of sunshine and a cold snap at the right time. October 2008 was good here.

Lol. Incipient Greenland High at T216. Yeah, right.

This Summer's forecast was pretty close, last Summer's not so... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-2#entry2306875 Again, I'm not criticising him. I applaud anyone who attempts an LRF.

Have you got a link, Gavin? Like I say, I just picked the most recent Winter forecast I could find on NW.

The most recent I could find was this (posted in the middle of October 2011) http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71247-roger-smiths-winter-2011-12-forecast/ "For reference, CET monthly temperatures are predicted at 5.8 for November, 4.5 for December, 1.5 for January, 6.2 for February, and 6.5 for March" Actual CET: November 9.6; December 6.0; January 5.4; February 3.8; March 8.3. Now, I'm not going to criticise anyone for having a go at an LRF but that's a massive bust by anyone's measure. If anyone could do LRF'ing to even a rough degree of accuracy (especially for a country the size of Britain) they would be wealthy indeed. I think it's probably possible to make some very low resolution broad predictions such as "Northern blocking is favoured" or something like that, and certainly ENSO conditions can be estimated and its global impact surmised. But beyond that the problem is intractable at this range and probably always will be. It's still a bit of fun though, so I predict Autumn and Winter will be, er, average.

Return of the ridge Now, what was I saying earlier about ignoring anything that far out...

Yep, for example this is yesterday's 0Z for next Sunday: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2013082600/UW144-21.GIF?26-00 ...and this morning, we have... http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013082700/UW120-21.GIF?27-07

The GFS op FI has gone from a ridge magnet to, well, whatever the opposite of that is in the space of 12 hours, e.g. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013082612-0-252.png?12 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013082700/gfs-0-240.png?0 A salutary reminder to self not to pay attention to anything that far out (there is a reason UKMO only goes to T144 publicly), even for "trends". I still think we can squeeze out a few more weeks of settled, warm conditions though based on nothing other than my sense that a lot of Atlantic progged breakdowns have failed to materialise this year.

ECM takes the low straight through Scotland next weekend: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013082500/ECM1-144.GIF?25-12 UKMO/GFS keep it further N through Iceland: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013082500/gfs-0-144.png?0 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013082500/UW144-21.GIF?25-07 Either way, pressure starts to build again over the UK after the low moves through and decays.

15.7C for me, cheers.

If it didn't though, we wouldn't need this thread and we could all get on with our lives.

Just 50,000 years to go.

It was circa 30C on October 1st 2011 (around here anyway) although it didn't last long.

Given what we are seeing, I think this is worth a bump: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77405-model-output-discussion-18z-280713/page-29#entry2764974 It could be chance I suppose, but I wish we had access to MOGREPS et al.

Dec 09 was actually better than Dec 10 IMBY. The first snow didn't arrive until the 18th (I think), but it was heavy powder followed by crystal blue skies and sub-zero temps without the nagging wind-chill. But anyway, October 2008 is a personal favourite for the spectacular New England-esque autumn colours. (Disclaimer: I am notoriously bad at mixing up years, so correct me if I'm wrong, but it was around then)

Fergieweather! Long time, no hear, and with promising news too.