Chris101
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Posts posted by Chris101
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All going as per warning and as expected, West Ipswich.
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Images of Anglesey Public Group | Facebook
M.FACEBOOK.COMBy Foel farm Menai straight, today @ 11.57
It's on the water.
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Biggin Hill showing 110 Kph 68mph.
Cant believe I have to edit to change auto correct from Biggins
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4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
Storm Ciara produced a maximum gust of 64mph here on the Sussex coast with elevation.
Way short of the touted 70mph and 80mph.
Nothing more than a standard winter storm for us.
GFS touted maximum gusts of 72mph for last weekend.
This morning it is calling for 75mph.
So my point is,rather typical that all the talk of Dennis not being as severe wind wise could actually be unwise.
I reckon I stand a good chance of the same here in Ipswich.
Ciara only managed a top gust of 57mph and squall lines were tatty and weak at this location.
It certainly wouldn't take much.
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Still plenty of time for the inevitable tweaks in all of the outputs in the next few days.
Any small change could lead to a bit of longevity, slightly colder feed.
When the ridge builds it will do as it wants and not what the models say it should.
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Gfs 06z, get the pop corn out.
Winter model entertainment at it's best
Like a massive pendulum that wont stop swinging.
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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
A poor ECM run.
By day ten no energy heading se and a lack of trough disruption to the west . It’s currently like pulling teeth to get any ridging sufficiently ne .
The last chance saloon is about to close down! If it wasn’t for the MJO I would already be throwing the towel in on any meaningful cold and snow before winter ends.
All eyes on the green line, needs a kick up to see ECM respond i think.
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
not going to make it on this run the block is slap bang over the UK unfortunately is a dirty highWhats clearly coming into view is the mjo push, now will it be enough push, i'm not sure who has performed better on levels of amplification this year, but we need the gfs to be more in line with its slightly better mjocast. A big eye on what the heights are coming up against now aswell, lots of clutter to the North right now bringing it to a halt.
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9 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Or if only the cold was coming directly where it’s from instead of taking a lads on tour in Rimini on the way to us!
A straight easterly or even better ENE/NE is what we really need.
It doesn't look too bad, even though the cold is flowing into Eastern Europe it looks to get cut off in an ok position for a fairly good feed.
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9 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:
This is mirroring what we saw last year nearly! It did get very mild towards mid feb beast from the east hit! Maybe it is a sign! If this is what happens again this year then we can use this as a strong signal potentially for future winters!
At my age I've seen it on numerous occasions, warm to freeze.
Like a few have said it's the small difference between wrong side and right side, again in my years of models imo I would rather see crap synoptic for cold at long range slowly nudge towards something in better favour than the continuous glory charts slimming down to a sudden fail. When people say look for trends in the models, it's hard to see it but that is a trend and not for good, so again the best hope is for something to buck that trend.
So as it goes will we get from warm to cold or not enough push and stay mild, I use the word push because just at the right moment the mjo push begins to show.
Now we really begin to have hope.
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On 10/02/2019 at 13:42, Chris101 said:
Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold
I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th
Still stands, maybe more 168ish
Looking at the 6z gfs the euro high is doing what we looked for the Siberian high to do a few weeks back.
Inadvertently the Euro high could do the job better imo when heights build west.
Unseasonable warmth to cold??
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:
I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day....
00z runs holding zero promise in my eyes. Once this weeks mildness is blown away it looks like a return to wind and rain. Nothing to whet the appetite in this busted flush of a winter.
Even the analogies in here make no sense
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So here we stand, models showing nothing favourable, anomalies rubbish, ensembles with no promise.
Given the performances this winter I'm surprised more aren't shouting game on, this is probably the best chance yet of seeing a big flip to cold
I'll go for a punt, 144/168 on the 12th/13th
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3 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:
The walderslade woods road has been close due to falling trees. Didn’t realise that though. Very sad
Sounds like it was a rumour and all got out ok.
Looking at posts after.
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A slight dusting In West Ipswich from a couple of early morning showers. Some absolutely stunning photos and reports from the South of the region.
What an amazing 24 hours of weather, that's what the model watching is all about, getting something to the top of the ladder and then getting to see it unfold in real time, and yes I say that with just a mere dusting.
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That looks like a snow squall line on radar now?
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Not very happy with the sudden spamming that keeps happening using page buttons, my phone goes blocking crazy when it happens.
Is this something NW knows about?
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Light snow just starting on the west side of Ipswich.
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Never mind the Estuary, the North Sea lake effect is really pumping up off the Netherlands.
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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Finally something white falling - Its a start
Eagerly waiting for you to say this.
Wheres Fujita?
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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
Another post just landed from me in the ramps and banter thread...another positive one from me
(just for you)
Between you and me I've been recording winter weather since 1983 (have a stevenson screen for recording temps, dew points)...I think by and large it's the amount of 'weather let downs' that has sculpted me this way)
No that will be Norfolk thats done that
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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
I've been here two weeks,I don't seen I've ever seen you post anything positive
Your learning
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3 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:
Think we may as well sign off north of zlondon before we depress ourselves listening to these people getting their snow fix
The secret is not to let it depress you, if i get nothing and the rest of them South of me get buried then good on em, thats just the way it was meant to be, if it really feels that bad then maybe meteorology might not be for you.
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9 minutes ago, shotski said:
Just seen a Polar Bear walk down our street so I’m sure there’s some snow on the way
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My wife works with a woman called Pola Low.
(just for you)
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Just for clarification,we were never getting the front from Darcy, we are getting a moisture wave from Darcy's main front, this could be seen in the fax charts when people were talking about why the fronts were so far away in Europe.
Hope that helps