[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

I have a good confident feel that come the end of February were all gonna be laughing at the chase and conversation over the next few days.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Went out for a drive to the shop and noticed that all the sugar beet fields around the village have had all their beet pulled in the last 24 hours (certainly none were done on Friday) and piled in long stretches down the sides of the fields. The farmer knows

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

cars cleaned tyes pumped up  do i need me spade in the car just in case yet!!

.........and a nice warm blanket

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

13 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I loved that snow cup,lots of fun! 

Sorry to hear you’ve since been ill Tom but pleased you’ve recovered well.

You're right...I was joint winner with snowbob!

If i remember correctly there was a lot of controversial brown envelopes being passed around that year

Good to hear your doing well Tom.  

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Plenty of moisture out in the North Sea, lets hope the convection can really get going as it runs into our shores.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed. It certainly seems apparent in mod thread. I responded to one chap that said it’s typical February weather not even a cold spell. I need one of those gifs! 

At the end of the day i think its peoples own faults for ramping themselves up, they look in the mod thread and see the buzz like last week going on, they have not a lot of idea what all the charts people are posting mean, they read only the bits that they want to see, and have no idea whatsoever about winter model chasing, i tend to call these people snow chasers. At the end of the day there is nothing wrong with snow chasers they want exactly the same outcome as the proper amateur meteorologist, they just tend to see the buzz and lead themselves up the garden path, and yes these tend to be the same people that when the models firm up on more detail come out with all the boring this is a load of rubbish posts. I don't see any of the more knowledgeable model enthusiasts coming out with the sulky let down posts, you tend to see as above they post charts and try and get this little winter chase underway. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

I'll second what the guys above are saying, stay calm guys, and don't get too far ahead of realistic timeframes. We have had a clear example just this week of how models didn't want to entertain the idea of the cold this weekend, and yet here we are, i would not look much further than midweek at the moment, some very small pushes could mean a whole lot of difference.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

That feature on Monday isn’t a streamer though, it’s an occlusion moving across the area from the continent and therefore giving snow to more of us.

Streamers usually, if my understanding is correct, form as small trough features dependant on wind flow, uppers etc. and are more localised.

Think your right there, streamers on a fax are marked with a dashed line if i remember correctly.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Morning all, very nippy out this way in the wind this morning, band of showers came through about an hour ago, certainly a wintry flavour in them, i would say an 80/20 rain/sleet mix.

Models looking steady this morning to get the cold in, and i would say that shower potential for our corner is now just beginning to show itself better, as some pointed out it would, could be a very enjoyable week ahead for many across the UK and from an IMBY perspective i'm happy where i am.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

In people’s honest opinion is it worth me getting another gas bottle for next week??? This is a serious question 

Definitely yes, no matter what falls from the sky it is going to be bitterly cold for a good few days across the region, especially at night.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Gfs 06z still looking nice to get the cold in, my only dislike would be that the first disruption of the trough doesn't look as nice as i might have hoped, unlike last nights 18z it doesn't really drop South to bolster our low heights over Europe.

Obviously this is just one run though and as far as i can see were doing just fine for now.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Putting aside the excitement. I am finding the chart below to be so incredibly unusual. I cannot recall anything in the past when we have such a pool of cold air to our E & W.

I've looked at charts now for a good 15 years and researched a number of good cold spells and its certainly a new one for me.

Usually we may go into a cold spell with some ideas of outcomes in our minds looking at flows, depths etc, but with this one i see new territory.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

19 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Well I hung myself out there to get whipped by calling for upgrades from yesterday's 12z and happy to say we're seeing this now. The models inability to sort out energy distribution until within the correct timeframe and bias to drip feeding tropical data means the 120-168 period will only upgrade further. Great start to the day

Still a way to go but yourself and Tight have done very well so far on this one,nearly the biggest heist of winter so far.

Top modelling

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Going back to what i said earlier thats another 18z that follows previous 18's bringing in very cold uppers.

What i'd love to start seeing now is some stonking Ecm runs with even better amplification than Gfs and then a meet in the middle during the next 5 days, i think if we could get that we'd be in a half decent position.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

The only place i've seen any consistency in the Gfs over the last couple of days is in the 18's, the rest have been as others have said, all over the place.

I know they have been very cold runs, but a usual watered down version would still bring the goods, i do like it when Gfs shows really deep uppers early on, it gives a bit of play.

Anyway, i shall have a keen eye on tonights 18z and hope they have some resemblence to the last couple.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Ooh could you imagine the meltdown if we didn't get a UKMO output for a week or so.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Well a few hours of snow turned it all white for a bit, rain set in now, on to the next.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

First signs of a few tiny flakes appearing now, Temp 0c Dp 0c.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Wifes bus has got her to work (Uk Power), seems she has got a busy day ahead of her locating pole numbers for engineers to go and hunt down.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Wife just left for work, shes seen a greenhouse laying in the path, got on the bus and didnt make it out the village and the bus is blocked by a large tree.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Starting to quieten down now, still some big gusts, but the worst is over.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Is anyone else seeing flashes of light? Twice now I’ve seen the sky light up. Neighbour fence has gone, she came round to tell me and that they are trying to stop it! I’ve told them to get inside, it’s too dangerous to try and sort it now. I’ll go round later once the wind has died down and help them. The noise sounds like the roof is coming in 

Flashes have been going a good couple of hours here now, for miles all around, some pretty big ones that stay lit for a couple of seconds.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Can now hear strange whining sounds in the distance and the biggest gusts yet.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Constant roar in the house now, lots of bangs and crashes outside, the horizon across the fields to my NW keeps getting lit up with power flashes. 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

My biggest worry over the last few days has not been the modelling of the SW as this was always to far ahead to put much into.

I've been consistently watching the Scandi/russian heights to our N and E.

In the middle of the week these heights were playing a big part at blocking the PV from moving to much to our East and its strength was forcing things in a much better SE direction to give us much lower heights over Europe.

Run by run up to now the blocks hold on the PV has become weaker and we see it heading in the wrong direction.