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Mark wheeler

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    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark wheeler

    On 06/10/2023 at 11:43, Wimbledon88 said:

    Turns out the great heat isn't happening.

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    Well the ECM a week or so ago now had it bang on for today . 26c was almost reached and we have 2 days left too of this before we wave goodbye to summer 2023 . 
     

    Today has been excellent, BBQ with the family, never before in October .

    That said My attention now is starting to look for the Holy grail that is cold , Ice and ultimately snow. Going to be more and more difficult now but we live in hope .

    let the hunt for cold begin..... Unless we can get 20c next weekend 😆.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark wheeler

    1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

    As I was discussing on the autumn thread - I don't think we've seen anything like the upper limit of what is possible for surface temperatures given the record breaking 850s we've had in September and October.

    In any case, to get this back to models, looking at the very short range spot maxima for tomorrow, there's general agreement on the 23-25C range being the spot maximum. Given most of the models were slightly under today, I'd say 25C is likely, possibly even 26C in an isolated spot.

     

    Yes 26c has been mentioned on Tv forecasts this evening as a possibility, tomorrow and also out to Tuesday sees a possibility of similar values . 25c was reached today in a few places in the southeast with just short of that the day before. This is no short spell of warmth and as others have said today it could come back, albeit and obviously watered down as time goes by. 
     

    For me November the 5th is ingrained in my memory. As a kid it was always freezing cold , remember snow at least once too. I will after October begin the hunt for cold . 
     

    Before that tomorrow brings a October BBQ , never done that before.

     

    Edit , Just to add charts from Harmonie , Nmm and aprege. My mind goes back to that ECM run a long time back now, it was very close despite being ridiculed from some quarters.

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