[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, BartyHater said:

‘Decent run from ECM’?

Please explain, because it really doesn’t look like one when you look at it on WetterZ .

One thing I have realised this afternoon is how much better Meteociel is than Wetterz. Anyhow I see the Mighty Navgem is now leading the way , always loved this model . 
 

KMA is apparently the UKMOs friend and looks ok for the big day for some .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS18Z worse than 12Z.

Yep was incorrect it seems .  Oh well on to the next run , have learned over the years not to get hung up on anything. Called it incorrectly as there was no comments on this particular run but got it wrong this time . 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Thank you.. explains....

No worries......

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Not a single post on the 18z... 

incoming. Uppers are colder too .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Last chart. Slide baby slide .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Now to just count it down. What can go wrong .

 

and yeah I know , plenty

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

GEM

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Still going.

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Oh Hello

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

A difference between UK and GFS at 168. UK still.has energy going Iver the top.

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

Hahaha that's a shame! It already looks very different to the UKMO at T168....

Is it better then the NAVGEM though? 

Never

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I hadn’t read eXeters update ….

The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period.

Those of us who’ve been doing this for longer than we’d care to admit see that as a very positive wording for coldies. They'll always sit on the side of not cold until the evidence is too strong to ignore it - look at the cold spell just ending. 

Just logged in for the 1st time and oh my god this is it  . Met never mention anything like that described that far out. Surely a significant risk.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Hi everyone,...just crept out of the regionals for a sec as it still is snowing here

this from CPC/NOAA looks nice towards day 14...

The hunt continues here.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

22 minutes ago, Vortex3929 said:

Fair play to them too ! Bit of a shame it's not widespread but yay for others getting to enjoy snow none the less  

Can I have one of those wintry showers please.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

10 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Its quite windy out there now and the temp has shot up from -3c to +5c in the space of an hour.

Disgusting

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I know its the last frame but  we can only dream eh .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I was checking something else out at the time,...volcano's.

Nah the Navgem I reckon 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

The cold block to the NE is ever stronger on the 18z

It always seems to be . What the 12zs and 18zs give the 00zs Take away. Sincerely hope I am wrong. Just always seems the case .

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Saw a few flakes this morning briefly, not settling of course but more snow than I saw the whole of last winter in that one small shower!

Currently -1.0c and watching that blob incoming from the NE

 

Good luck Lottie

Nothing being reported from East Anglia , big blobs .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Gem a smidge further south with Sundays low to my eyes .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

No , not again GFS

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Mark is that the old shed end in your profile pic? 

Yeah it is indeed, those were the days .

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Snow in Chessington 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Can some get lucky this morning.