[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Much colder jma this evening. There's a trend this evening, a cold one!!

Blimey you are not wrong, thats absolute beaut of a chart . Shame we can't go further.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A high ground affair just as their latest update suggests…..

Met never get onboard early with regards to snow , why would they as there is enough warning in their extended update to cover all bases . The latest update is a sensible and safe option. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Here we go again, the useless pub run. But I am interested anyway

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY NAVGEM

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

All roads lead to Cold , eventually anyway.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

10 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Much milder 18z GFS

ensembles will be interesting.

Don't worry , the cold is on it's way , no 18z run will change that for me

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Mogreps look pretty tightly clustered around the colder theme...perhaps more so than last night where there was far more spread! Not bad gang.

Sorry @Mark wheeler you had already posted em.

How's about a little bit of JAM!

All good Matt, yeah it all looks positive , I was going to post the Navgem too but its crap, I mean I know its Crap but tonight its crap , crap . Exciting times ahead even if it is just a chase . I have missed it .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Evening all , just catching up after a long day at work , looks like we are still firmly in the game . 
 

Checking out Mogreps 12z every location this evening is sub zero on 850s by the end of the run. Some area especially further south have a slight rise before falling again, maybe indicating a low pulling away southeast perhaps. still to have all locations quite easily sub zero is a plus as I saw this morning and on the 6z there was more scatter  .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Jma 18z 132 hrs , the easterly theme continues.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

23 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yes it was but not the failed easterly down to T72. Anyway best leave it as the mods will be unhappy.

 

lets hope this gets there and we don’t need to add to the failed pile.

Yes you are right, I stand corrected, biggest fail for me was that 72hours out on all models. Sorry to derail.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ohh a lot of us know , December 2012 nearly all models had the easterlies, the Met and all was onboard. Then suddenly one morning it was gone on all runs . , but we don't wanna give you that .

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Has there ever been such x model support that has failed?

Ohh a lot of us know , December 2012 nearly all models had the easterlies, the Met and all was onboard. Then suddenly one morning it was gone on all runs . , but we don't wanna give you that .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

18 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Not even 1 mild run in the pack there, what a shift wow

And every single individual run on mogreps end up sub zero in all locations I posted . Brilliant !!!!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Mogreps trending Cold too . Birmingham to me was particularly notable. Not much spread either, that can surely only be good news for coldies .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

What about the BOM and JMA?

Jma is an interesting run . LOL

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Posted 0z 216 by accident

Thanks , deleted , apologies all. Here is the correct charts 192 .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Quieten down everyone . Its time for the model we have all been waiting for . Please stand aside for the Mighty , Mighty Navgem .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

I know not exactly at the same time frame but look at the difference in 850s  from 0z to 12z at around 144hrs 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surprised how many didn’t trust the ec op to follow it’s 06z run when all the other models are now on the same page 

have some faith !

Been burnt to many times

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

You can understand why the Met aren’t gunning for cold with this many different solutions on the table. 

Lots of easterlies in there . The met will wait much longer before jumping on , as you have well explained there are reasons not to fully jump on it .

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Jma 132 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Big Navgem tonight

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 🫨

 

 

 

TBH thats the one I always look for as others have said if UKMO says no in my experience it rarely happens . Nice to see.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Woahh . Is that snow or cold rain 

 

or neither

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Is that UKMO edging towards an easterly