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18 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Nice to see some early proper cold coming in from the gfs allbeit a long way off , rather than looking at the Spanish trash over the weekend...

Would personally love to go from summer weather straight to winter weather but that wouldn't be fair on the ones that love autumn .

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Aprege in range for Saturday and has 25c for the south east . Slightly disappointing elsewhere but only one run. Not that 20c is to be sniffed at in October.

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Who said it was definitely not happening?

Well you didn't say it word for word but you came pretty close when the ECM was showing the heat for the coming weekend . 

the rest is history and the GFS  caved  in.

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1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

ECM 0z OP and Control both had the 20c isotherm just into the UK on Saturday as well

Has that ever happened For real in the past , or is this potentially the 1st time ? Asking anyone that knows please .

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's been a year of strange heatwaves at strange times, and here we go again with a "heatwave" coming up, well, at least relative to what one would expect for October.

The GFS tonight goes full circle from its runs of 48 hours ago and is not only completely pro the warm period, it now wants it to continue well into next week, with 24-25C each day Saturday 7th to Wednesday 11th. 

 

Gem also want to prolong the warmth in to Wednesday too .

 

UKMO showing the warmth ebbing away later Monday .

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1st out if the 12z blocks is of course the Icon . Prolongs the heat in yo Monday and still has it ebbing slowly away on the Tuesday. Interesting that the 6z had the higher 850s hanging on longer , a minority still dropping of quicker like this mornings Ecm

lets see what the others say. 

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1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hi mark the latest ECM is showing the very warm air..but doesnt last all that long

 

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12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hi mark the latest ECM is showing the very warm air..but doesnt last all that long

The ens look like they agree broadly with that scenario this evening , however there is a minority but significant cluster that keep it warmer for longer. Lets see what GFS says soon and more so the runs tomorrow, fantastic model watching  as the transition of seasons unfolds.

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41 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It does though clear the heat away eastwards a bit more quickly at the end of the weekend. A short very warm spell looking most likely.

I think that's up for grabs still . Mogreps have plenty staying warm for London . Further north and west less so although still some keeping it warm even here .

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20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM  

Yes a home run for the ECM regarding the southerly it seems . All models tonight have this as I have recently posted. 

 

So @ANYWEATHERare you ready to accept here that you was wrong on this occasion? Ecm has had a success here and yes it is extreme for the time of year. 

 

 

 

Interestingly ECM now clears the heat quicker , whats to say it is not right this time too ?

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3 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Now this is what I’m looking for

Well that would certainly be a shock to the system. I wouldn't say no , although would prefer it in December .

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

GEM similar, and warmer than its 6z run. All heading one way, although the GFS does then introduce cooler air from the north into the following week.

Yep Gem joins the bonanza. Appreciate it is not everyones cup of tea at this time of year but really hoping this comes off so our family can enjoy a bbq on sunday to celebrate a birthday.

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Its coming home , its coming home , its coming Summers coming home . 
 

in October!!!!.

UKMO 144

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like the GFS is continuing to move that way, too. Egg on face for a certain someone, yet again.

The GFS has almost completely gone to the ECM solution now . Yesterdays 12 GFS had the trough dominant  . Interesting to see the other models now and to see what the ECM comes up with now . 

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18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

First of the 12zs, the ICON, looking warmer than previous runs for next weekend. A more prolonged setup, too. It’s a cannon fodder model but good to have it on board.

 

Yes and similar to last nights Ecm ,  

Last nights ECM below for comparison.

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Well, well , well the GFS 18z has had a look at the ECM and said  , ok mate I think you may be on to something here .

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Interesting . A few going below 0 later on.

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10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ecms output is utter rubbish!  Total extreme ! Why would anyone believe this rubbish!  Ecm will climb down tommorow towards gfs ....☺

Saving this post 

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Hello, summer! 

Lovely Jubbly . 

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Different options certainly still , interesting that the GFS control goes for a southerly.

 

This looks to be a good run if you want one last blast of heat . 

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30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM maintaining the warm southerly solution for next weekend, T174:

GFS doesn’t want to know at the moment, with the trough moving in same time:

A lot going on at the moment…

Ukmo also going with a southerly although it has to be said not as potent as this morning.

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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A stand off between GFS and ECM/UKMO, as often the case. GFS exerts far greater influence from the trough, kicking any attempted ridge hold away. ECM and UKMO hold the trough at bay and pump in a warm southerly feed, but only a matter of time before it would be replaced by the trough. Ive mentioned the sudden southerly then northerly switcharound...

A half way house most likely this time next week, with synoptics probably akin to this weekend, the ridge not strong enough in west parts at least to prevent atlantic drizzle/rain fest on a mild SW flow, but close enough in the east to present a very pleasant warm scene there.

Thereafter look for the trough to take a clean swipe through UK and attention turns to how heights to the NW change the feel markedly.

To highlight your point about a quick switch around to a northerly, have you seen the Ecm control ?

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39 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The ecm and gfs couldn't be more different at 7 days ahead. Question is which one will be right?

UKMO is more Ecm than GFS although EC has a bigger euro high , attached is both at 168 hrs . My money is with the Ecm over Gfs .
 

Just to add mogreps looks to be heading up in regards to 850s , but many fall away at the end .

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29 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The only observation I've made is the warmer uppers seem far west, we need them to be further east.   Maybe they'll be some changes in the next set of UKMO op runs.    

I was hopeful that the high uppers would eventually topple eastwards . A bit like the Ecm has done so this evening.

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A nice UKMO this evening