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southbank

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Everything posted by southbank

  1. southbank
    Hmmmm ......such different solutions still being thrown up difficult to see what to take from any NWP past T 96 , I guess until we some sort of agreed solution more up & downs , I believe the MOGREPS had a good Handel on the early Dec failed easterly
  2. southbank
    What interesting about the 18z is how it develops the pacific ridge with all that warm air being pumped in we see the Canadian PV eaten away , yet another solution another model , been a right old roller coaster , I haven't seen any cross model solutions yet and we probably won't til tue/ wed
  3. southbank
    BFTP .... The NOAA space weather prediction centre are forecasting a m-class flare over next 3 days , now I stress there may be no correlation to how this all pan out but sure will be interesting to see if there are any interaction at all with solar flares , SSW , other teleco connections and indeed HLB , just preferred there wasn't a flare at this stage !!!
  4. southbank
    chionmanic just a quick question not sure what thread to stick it in ,we currently now have a m- class solar flare being forecast , do youthink this may have an impact if any on the current warming ? just there are some thoughts on how solar activity impacts HLB
  5. southbank
    I think it depends in what context IF meant , you could be talking about the development of a Artic High being less progessive or the influence of the atlantic. He may pop back to claify
  6. southbank
    Again no real signs of pressure dropping around the med at T186 , if we had some sort of low forming there then we could see CAA , The heights at NP look impressive , interesting run buts its the 06z afterall !!
  7. southbank
    The irony of all of this , all summer we waited for a Spanish plume only for it to arrive on Xmas day when we least want it , signal still showing on models for this Spanish plume
  8. southbank
    The trend still being signalled with heights rising over Iberia , that's going to provide a lot of frustration this winter
  9. southbank
    not going to get stressed at +196 charts showing +8 c in SE but from a trend point of view what the Stat thread have been saying are now showing up re warming , the PV totally gone from Canada , this must have implications on the jet stream , slows it down ? amplifies it ? i have no idea but im sure over next 4-5 days we may see some v interesting n h charts , just hope we can get a cold 25th nearer the time
  10. southbank
    a very informative forum if slightly above my head , but if im "getting " this right , are we saying that warming of Pole are expected to be higher than usual which impacts the PV which in turn leads to a decrease of westerly winds leading to HLB ? Also in the next few days we may see tentaive signs of an AH in NWP ?
  11. southbank
    well some tentative signs of a possible trend in NWP for colder soultions appearing around xmas times , hopefully we can build on these in the coming days , from a POV i happily sarcifice the rest of winter for one decent proper shot of a christmas card type of xmas with a few inches of powdery snow on the big day , been 40 years waiting !!!
  12. southbank
    It's the infamous , famous Scandinavia sausage shape high !!! If only it would verfy
  13. southbank
    Cracking charts for those looking for seasonal charts , probably as good as you can get in the internet age , just one thing I just temper the excitement with is that at 120- 144 are still on the edges of reliability to where/how the block set up and subsquent feeds off from mainland europe , until we see these at T 96 we can still get an east ward correction or a slower evoultion ala UKMO , still another 3 days of this
  14. southbank
    Only another 72 hrs before we know if its a blend of euros and gfs and exactly what type of feed sets in the uk a e or se feed , only thing is after 7 years on this site I have seen gfs throw runs up like this only to then spend the next 3 days backtracking , tomorrow and all the way up to Saturday model watching is gonna be one hell of a ride
  15. southbank
    Almost the infamous Steve murr sausage high in its alignment there at t+ 186
  16. southbank
    Be interesting to see how the Euro models & GFS develop between T+ 96 to T+144 and what variations we see. I cant help feeling that we may develop a Feb 2012 type easterly where the UK was just a tad to far on the fringes to get anything meaningful with milder inclusions into the SW But got to admit despite that looking at the NH profile currently is great viewing and if it doesnt end in a 91/87 blast at least it will be festive !!
  17. southbank
    Be interesting to see how the Euro models & GFS develop between T+ 96 to T+144 and what variations we see. I cant help feeling that we may develop a Feb 2012 type easterly where the UK was just a tad to far on the fringes to get anything meaningful with milder inclusions into the SW But got to admit despite that looking at the NH profile currently is great viewing and if it doesnt end in a 91/87 blast at least it will be festive !!
  18. southbank
    If only more women were happy with 2 inches
  19. southbank
    Ive been looking at 700 & 850 wind vectors not a sign at the mo of a sww direction still a very much north to south direction
  20. southbank
    i think people should look at the 700 850 wind vectors on radar to try and see where the front will pivot or indeed move
  21. southbank
    agree not many reports of snow at all
  22. southbank
    defo a case of radar/nowcasting as national forecast on BBC will be behind the curve ( cant blame them as its a very diffucult situation) . going by radar the band is moving far quicker and further east than models had suggested thus far , i guess the real change is when the front starts to pull away to the SW of the country thats the development to watch .( or indeed if changes track again)
  23. southbank
    From a synoptic point of view this is one of the most frustrating ever winters , we were/ could of been on a cusp of a 1-30 year cold spell a la 87/91 the missing piece is there has been no undercutting
  24. southbank
    looking at the NNM for next 36 hrs , defo threat of small dusting SE , usual fav spots , but may also reach greater London , RE Thames streamer would love a surprise one to fire up a la Jan 2004 that even gave an inch or so here in central london during the morning , although signs at the moment doesnt look we get on going , but could be wrong
  25. southbank
    Unless we got a staling front looking at radar defo be finishing by 2 am
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