southbank

Yamkin ...... can i borrow your ruler so that i can prove a point to the missus .....ta

sadly i think you on the money with that forecast ........(sadly)

lol......yamkin 1 st winter alert

too true vivid memories as a kid of weather warnings early 80's of a front moving in from the west against a cold block and london to be hit early morning with several inches , woke early and not a bean but on the news all i could do in despair is watch the folk in devon get snow bombed learnt a lesson then (just wish i remembered the year/month) i love these charts tonight but expect come friday these will be further further west sadly

I think you are right , I think we are still in for some wild swings as witness towards the end of last week and the flip flopping over the weekend . Unless the teleconnections stop supporting a signal for a northern block to form then despite the gloom on here after sunday runs there is still chance of a colder outbreak . I feel next week in the later stages is where we will start firming up on a cold soultion however thats 216 hrs away and not one model can cope at the mo at that distance with blocking signals and the energy in the jet as it exits the US so the rollercoaster to last a bit longer methinks

as people point out the difference btn the ukmo/gfs at such a short timeframe is unbelievable as one model is totally out of sync , i guess choose your pick which model is better aligned at working out the energy distrubtion of the jet as it exits the eastern US . MY only thinking is that the UKMet have mentioned about a warm bias to their models which is being looked at , maybe their model is struggling with the block but knowing us uk cold fans chance is that the ukmeto will be spot on and the gfs will be the one thats one

well first of the 12z reeling out , chances are we are going to see "rollercoaster" type of model soultions for at least next 72 hrs so please try and refrain from saying " no easterly coming " or " beast is coming " such is the complex situation developing between teleconnection signals of a block and how that interacts with energy exiting from the us. if your a cold lover enjoy what snow feast may show up like yesterday 12z and 18z and equally hold off from wrist slashing .........this is going to the wire

Exactly TEITS . The easterly if it transpires was always 5-7 days away so the fact the "trend" is still there and the signals for northern blocking is encouraging . The finer details will always chop and change . if the trend holds then what a finale to the winter months we may have

any one report if its snowing in sutton ??? reigate is four miles south so guessing we could be at the very northern edge

OH NOOOO .......another bloody NEaster !!!!!!!!

:lol: Folks its all going to be ok here , just got off the phone to Yamkin and he has heavy snow where he is :lol:

thats the hope ....... and thats all it is ......... more learned people on here might have a much better handel on the actual meteorology thats going on and why the southern flank may just fizzle out when it makes land fall . still very much in the air ( although knowing our luck it will be rain or snizzle by the time it gets here ), the radar does at this present time, gives us some cause to be hopefull

good maps to look at and do a comparison , it seems the front seems to be swinging more in a SE direction as it moves east ......also the centre of the low out sw ireland seems to be moving more in a NW motion ... might mean nothing and might still stall...... but if it carries swinging around in the manner it has been and keeps the PPN going then still all to play for for us in london as it might push the PPN more our way .......anyway more radar watching

some on the echoes certainly show heavier pluses of PPN , the question is whether any of it will get to SW london , sutton rather than sw OF london this might be misplaced opportunism but i feel london might be in for a surprise as the front to me seems further east than was model , althought after 38 yrs these snow events via the west have tended to be the biggest let down . Many a time it end up rain or not push across at all !! so flipping btn SW thread and radar ......fingers cross

reading the SW threads , seems positive that snow has already fallen at sea level and so far PPN is heavier than originally forecast so all to play for Gulf stream hater think your right , have to pray the channel adds some kick to the eastern front without warming it up to much and what a prefect end to this cold spell if the front did stall over london as the block to the NE strengths ever so slightly all eyes on radar and see how we get on

A bit of snizzle here in Sutton nothing heavy at mo

Are you sure about downgrades for London ??? if anything I thought since lunchtime it has been upgraded although agree slight changes make such difference on snow path that right up to that point things can change

Just was thing the same thing ...... Great call kw

Just was thing the same thing ...... Great call kw

Sutton sw London ..... Moderate snow for an hour dewpoint 0 air temp 0 winds 34 n ......... So far haven't seen the intensity in the snow fall like there was in feb 09 Thames streamer . Still things developing all the time and did alex deakin really forecast 40 cm for the London region on BBC weather or did I misunderstand that ?

the radar may be giving the impression its moving more se but if im understanding the situation correctly the front moving down south from the north is associated with a low out in the north sea , this is generally in a SE direction , what is happening is that at the same time a low develops in the channel , its this low that the main area of snow people arent too sure exactly where it will fall , as this low in the channel develops its competing with the low in the north sea for energy and causes the front moving south to decay , probably round NW london region ...... i think this is right , feel free to shoot the messenger , but really as more better informed people will tell u its all about the radar now as this can go either further east/west

looking at the esembles over the last couple of days for the ECM there was support from a few of a drop down below -10 uppers on a couple of runs , wondering if todays ECM 0z is beginning to develop that scenario . IT all ties in with GP point about mid Jan being snowy and backed up by current teleconnections. if this varifies then noerthern western europe will be on course for its worst winter in decades , defo a 1/25 year possibily 1/50 year ...... gripping times

agreed it does look puzzling , be interesting to see the meto/ecm updates later . Although i prefer comparing the 12z like for like . Im wondering if the models are still trying to work out where that high will form and we may see more changes before we know exactly how this weekend weather will pan out . exciting times and think this week may be a nightmare to pin down exact trend

yamkin where exactly in croydon are you , i only ask as i live in sutton which is about 5 miles to the west . it show just how localise snow can be as we got nothing again and only had a few cm during december . Just noted Joe B updated thoughts on that storm track , such a shame but guess other opportunities will arise