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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
wiltshire weather replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Updated 96 and 120 hr faxes- 1,198 replies
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Definitely an upgrade on the GFS/ICON/UKMO for Thurs/Fri in as much as there seems more snow around the region than previous runs. As others have said, the Meto have also now issued a weather warning for Friday covering everywhere NE of Exeter pretty much. Will be interesting to see how the ECM looks later on to see if its following the same trend.
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Some light flurries here. Hoping there will be some more substantial stuff but I'm not holding my breath! All the warnings seem to skirt round my area, even the one on Weds I'm only just in. Thurs/Fri still up for grabs but I'm not sure we're going to know how that is likely to pan out until it's actually happening!
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
wiltshire weather replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Comparing that to the 144hr chart, looks to me as the low pressure over Southern England has gone East rather than North- 1,198 replies
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Have to say running through the various short range models that the first part of this week is looking quite good for snow showers / disturbances across the SW peninsula. Unfortunately I live in the far East of our region so that doesn't include me at this point, seem to be in the sweet spot for missing everything!
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Certainly glad to see the Metro forecast is still much unchanged so that's a good sign. GFS output is still insistent on bringing it all to an end come Friday evening but ECM seems to have backed off a little from yesterday's run and looks like the snow event on Friday might still happen and the cold hangs on.
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So what should have been a buzzing Saturday night in here looking forward to a special week weather wise has been well and truly party pooped by the latest model runs! I'm hoping for some better output in the morning but at least the Meto still seem quite bullish about the cold spell continuing at the moment, and at least my Meto app is still showing snow for Friday!
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I'm finding it difficult to believe we will see much, if any snow from this setup unless that low-pressure system pushes up from the south at the end of next week. It will undoubtedly be bitterly cold, but mostly dry I think for me (central Southern England). Depending on the wind direction, certain parts of the West Country might see snow showers coming off the sea if they're lucky. Of course, with such cold and down here, more unstable air, things can and will crop up at short notice!