wiltshire weather

Buy some of that self-adhesive foam draught excluder strip and stick it around the inside of the frame so that the door squashes it up when it closes and seals the gaps

Looks like the stack of logs to keep us warm when the power goes out that I've just finished chainsawing is going to need building a bit bigger!

That blizzard showing up on Thurs/Fri looks to be going on all night and all of the next day!

And a few hours later...

This should be ok for most people!

I've been playing with the model tracker function which I find awesome for spotting trends and comparing like for like model runs for a specific time. A couple of thoughts on how it could be improved for me and also an issue I found. 1. If you select the GFS Ensembles 12Z run, you get all 4 runs showing instead of just the 12z (works as expected if you select the 00z run). 2. Is it possible to include the ECM ensemble mean as a selection? 3. Is it possible to add the facility to choose both the 00z and 12z runs together? - would be very useful when trying to compare the ECM and GFS as the ECM only has those two. Selecting 'All Runs' gives you the GFS 06z and 18z of course which makes it difficult to compare like for like runs. 4. Some more options in the 'Select Data' drop-down would be welcome - e.g. the Northern Hemisphere 850T (would be nice to have that available for the ECM charts in general btw!) That's it for now

One piece of advice I often heard on here was to compare the same run from day to day to see where trends are actually heading. Not sure why, but in NW Extra there's a handy tool for doing just this. In the images below I've compared the SLP and 850T maps for 1200 on Tuesday 27th Feb from the GFS and ECM 12Z runs from the past three days. Interesting that the GFS seems to be chopping and changing quite a bit whereas the ECM is remarkably similar in its forecast. Of course it doesn't mean either of them is right but would seem to suggest the ECM has not been wobbling as much as we think. The changes maybe are in fact between it's 0Z and 12Z runs. Maybe there is something in the idea that it's best to compare like for like runs to get an idea of the trend rather than analysing each and every one?

Updated 120hr FAX chart seems to have the HP further north than the UKMO model was showing earlier. Also, an incoming trough just making landfall on the east coast.

Interestingly (to me anyway!) the ECM 00hr run earlier seems to have a very similar evolution to the UKMO 12z run and does indeed end up with a Greenland high. It then drags in very cold and unstable air from the NE so a definite reload after a very cold week with snow chances in the areas already highlighted by the Meto. As I'm typing I notice the 72hr FAX has just updated and the flow out to the East seems to be depicted as more unstable than it was earlier.

Thanks. I'll keep an eye on Meteociel around those times then as at least they clearly show when each one was last updated! Wish the NW Fax viewer did something along the same lines though...

Thanks for all the analysis Knocker. Always very interesting and I think this particular thread may become a bit busier come next Monday! A quick question in case anyone knows the answer. When do the MetO update their FAX charts? is it a set schedule or completely random? Many thanks.

Lots of unpleasantness going on in the model thread about the positioning of the high-pressure cell on the UKMO model, which seems to have moved it very quickly over from Scandi towards Iceland (on its way to Greenland maybe?) With the HP being centred just SW of Iceland on the 27th, the weather type across the country fits in quite well with the current synopsis in their extended outlook posted below: "UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018: It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill." Will be interesting to see what their updated 120hr FAX looks like once it comes out.

The MetO have really ramped up the wording on their extended forecast for the period up to the end of Feb "Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. " Seems to reflect very much for example what the 06Z GFS is showing for Sunday 25/02

Nearest weather station to me recorded a gust of 62mph at around 5am! A big conifer went over next door, I think around 3am as I was awake and heard it go over, luckily into an open garden. Windiest night around me I can remember for a long time.

Interestingly (and worryingly) Carol Kirkwood just mentioned in her forecast on the Beeb that the storm Weds/Thurs may bring damaging wind especially to the west and south. Sounds like they are seeing it track further south than currently being modelled.

Looks like the mods have removed most of the toy throwing posts! Not a good set of runs overnight if it's a prolonged cold spell you're after. Still worried about this late week storm as well.

A big thank you for starting this discovery thread, I've already learnt lots! Been a member here for a long time but rarely post for various reasons I'm hoping to be a regular contributor here though as the whole background signals thing has baffled me for a long time despite a 50+ year interest in the weather and in particular cold, winter weather! Will continue to read through and ask questions when I have some. I was going to ask about the MJO but see Knocker has posted something about that so will have a look.

Long time lurker here and rarely post other than an occasional one in my regional thread so forgive this post if it's deemed off topic but didn't know where else to put it. Really like the idea of a thread devoted to just the next few days but wonder if it should be up to 120 hours to promote a little more discussion as that's still in the realms of a more reliable timescale but without the ridiculousness of the FI charts that dominate the main model thread. It just seems that with the shorter timescale all that can be talked about is the current weather forecast for the next 2 or 3 days which is usually pretty much agreed on between the main models. It always seems to me that it's around days 4 and 5 that things start to diverge so there would be more material for people to discuss with hopefully the more knowledgeable here more willing to add their input. Just to add some chart info to make this post actually model related, up to T72 on the latest GFS it certainly looks as though the high pressure is still holding although upper air temps are beginning to be sourced from a much warmer area especially in the south.

Snowing here in NE Wiltshire. Unexpected surprise on waking up! Looks like couple of cm has settled.

Can't believe that I'm already searching YouTube for documentries on classic British winters just to get a snow fix in yet another rubbish winter that doesn't look as though it's going to deliver after such promise.....

Picture taken whilst out walking the dog this morning

Had about a cm here in the end and looks like we might catch the edge of disturbance coming down the east. in fact it's started snowing as I type!

Looks like we might get a cm or 2 on the grass as it's already turning white !

Enough snow to show up on the windscreen of my daughters car!

It's actually snowing quite heavily now and beginning to settle on the grass and cars. I don't have a proper weather station, just one with a temperature and humidty sensor, which is showing 2.9 degrees.