[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, lewis clark said:

According to alot on here we had cold allegedly coming at Christmas....but it always seems to be pushed back and never actually materialises then those posters go quiet. I'll believe it when I see it is my new thoughts on uk cold/snow lol!

That’s how forums work. You discuss the models . Doesn’t mean they will come true. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Thanks everyone. Not confusing at all

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's cold zealots like me my bad 

I’m as bad . Keep it up nws 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Haha it’s always the same folk that are ‘shocked’ , ‘gutted’ ,   ‘Bewildered’ by the models yet they are the first to start the next chase . 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Has the mega storm for next week now all gone too?

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

3 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Winter is over, roll on spring.

Get a grip folks. This forum is an embarrassment at times . It’s 14th December l 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Just now, LRD said:

Cool

See you all in November 2024. Maybe

Bye

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

8 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Very much in line with what I stated yesterday despite being dismissed by many.

This is no deep freeze, chilly spell and relatively short in duration then back to mild, nothing out of the ordinary.

Not sure chilly is the word. Thursday could bring widespread snow. Usually needs to be more than chilly for that. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

So  is it milder the following week?  

What in 3 weeks ?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Are you seeing snow across most of mainland England?

Are you seeing strong Greenland heights across the full NWP suite?

I’m seeing temps wrong side of marginal across low level England, no sustained northern blocking and ground temps across all but the far north 4-6 degrees above freezing.

Intrigued as to what you’re seeing …

Snow is probably best forecast a few hours before the event. I’m seeing the best cold charts for November for years. I’m not getting carried away either way but it is an exciting time for coldies. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

30 minutes ago, weathercold said:

But many have discussed lowland England snow and a two week cold spell…not seeing either.

Maybe you just see something different to others . 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Interesting to see many disagreeing - must be looking at different charts. 
a lot of hopecasting going on here - reality is they have downgraded aside from an isolated UKMO run.

Or maybe most never expected a month long deep freeze 

 

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Interesting to see many disagreeing - must be looking at different charts. 
a lot of hopecasting going on here - reality is they have downgraded aside from an isolated UKMO run.

 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

They are only the best charts if they actually happen. We've seen potential in lots of November's get watered down. What I find frustrating is why weather models haven't improved over the years. They can barely get 6 days right, and they were able to do that 40 years ago

But they are still the best we’ve had for ages. Many a winter has gone by without any hope for coldies. It’s just the ott reactions that get me and also it depends on what your expectations are. Some won’t be happy unless we get arctic conditions.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

The best charts we’ve had for November for years yet horror show and game over have been used already this morning. I guess that’s what u get when u pin everything on individual runs all the time.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, HellItsHot said:

It feels like it, or something similar, happens every year. 

Nonsense. Some years we go the whole winter without any cold charts yet alone the fascinating ones we have now. People just need to get a grip and remember it’s only autumn and we do this for fun . 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Long way to go before this is resolved. Some reactions in here are hilarious. Get a grip. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Welcome to over analysis time on nw. It’s time to take the best early winter charts in years and start finding faults or breakdowns before the cold is even here. Anyone can play. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Long time no speak my lovelies.

To sum up things just lately I would say pretty boring! 

But today I must admit as brought a nip in the air with tomorrow promising the same,with perhaps a touch of Jack Frost in the air.

Next week could bring a change to more unsettled and at times windy conditions....booooooooo..we've seen enough rain around these parts just lately to last us another year!

Hang on....ECM shows promise moving further forward. The PV looks stretched and not really sure where to take up residence...and just look at the cold pooling towards the NE...I feel we could be facing a big change in the conditions come the big month!

The touch paper has been ignited..boooommmmmmm....the countdown now begins...this is the year we finally get out just deserts!

This is the pep talk you've all been waiting for folks.

Live it large and have a sterling Weekend folks..just to think give it a few more weeks and the inlaws will be round and the weather will be the last problem on your minds

He’s back. Wahoo . 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

This is a BOOM for me

Such a change in short notice!🫣

Is that from teletext

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

32 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I've noticed the frowngrades have begun! Exactly what did I say four days ago in the spring chat thread. If models are showing mild then it will be mild. 

Probably best u keep your frowngrades in the spring thwead.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow that is some graphic, west moving east, east moving west, I wonder why the models are lost.

Crazy. For the forecasters it must be like predicting the winner of the grand national after just 2 fences with 40 horses left in.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

The GEFS ensembles have become really messy on the overnight run:

The mean is pretty pointless given the spread but compared to yesterday many more milder and wetter solutions. A change is on the way for sure.

I guess you could call it a change after the change

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

The pattern is backing to far west, but things can change you never know.  

Exactly.they change every run as most posts on here show 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

9 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I feel like we really do need to temper expectations slightly. It's much easier to maintain snow on the ground in December.

If we do get snow cover next week, cloud cover will be key during daylight hours to preserve any snow. 

Anyone getting in a tiz over preserving snow cover is defo jumping the gun. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

54 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Doest need deep thought to be fair, I will leave the deep thought to the fantasists 

It’s called discussions. That’s the point of this thread if you don’t like it don’t bother following it.