[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:42, Kasim Awan said:

Just saying if that came off the excitement would be lost as attention would shift to risk to life etc.

Not sure it would be all that life threatening as u say . 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:35, Kasim Awan said:

Just for fun. P9 has a severe blizzard with 1987 style winds in the south east on Christmas day. At that point the excitement is lost and it becomes more of a worry.

Sorry but what are u worried about

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

im going to call that a boring run,but with so much potential,quite dissapointing really.

So to clear things up it’s boring , full of potential and disappointing too.

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

12 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Excellent, if I can’t sleep on Thursday I know where to find the cure! 
 

Gavs videos are always interesting. His posts are usually interesting and informative too. 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i understand what your saying but you have to admit more often then not the real brutal cold air doesnt come to our shores we usually just get a flavour of it.but yes we need trough desruption.

But we are discussing what the models are showing now

 

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

So we’re writing off December on the 25th November? Brave call.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward]

23 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

We shall see personally I always find that the event isn't as bad as it forecast.

Yeah they do issue warnings quite readily these days. I guess it’s worse as a lot of outdoor activities are on atm .

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward]

Amber warning for the southwest now . As knocker has said it’s going to be a lively night here in Cornwall. Wouldn’t want to be a camper tonight.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z is like a car crash where it is not clear if the brakes, engine or windscreen wipers were at fault. 

T210

What is funny tho is that suddenly everyone saw it coming! Not that the last 30 pages could prove it . 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well I was daft enough to finally get a little excited this morning and the 12Z's seem to have removed any glimmer of hope of snow. Its really a big downgrade for those west the of IOW. ICON, Arpege really backed of the snow risk on Tuesday evening, GFS not really interested and ECM seems to be much further south!!

If you can tell for certain today that no snow will fall on Tuesday night then u should be working at the met 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I think a lot of folks will happily take and enjoy a 4 day cold spell after the dross of the past few winters. With all due respect your location Bournemouth is always going to be one of the most difficult places to see snow in any cold setup.

It's going to be freezing for 4 days at least with snow chances pushing inland on an unstable easterly flow, surprises will pop up all over the place imo!

Yes some realism is needed by some . Thursday was always looking like a change day . Not sure what the following week has to do with it . A two week freeze has never really been forecast.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

42 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Oh come on please share your snow with Cornwall 

 

Yeah we are sticking out on all snow depth charts with a big fat zero . Wouldn’t take many miles west to completely cover us tho . Fingers crossed 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

8 minutes ago, BARRY said:

Looking at that chart there are no rain amounts for us and Cornwall.

 

I can’t believe we would see nothing 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Suddenly this thread had become the ‘when will the cold spell that hasn’t arrived yet breakdown thread’ .

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

So if ecm is right does that mean yesterday’s meto update is a bust.

And if tomorrow’s Neto update is correct then today’s ecm is wrong 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Uptick at the end of the graph even bigger on this suite, its not like i am not providing evidence.

 

U answered your own question. ‘At the end of the chart ‘ 

[Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas]

32 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Sure, if it's ok to post about magical ops, controls, ensembles and means as has happened on here over the few days, then its surely ok to discuss when they fail?

Caveat that of course the ECM op may be wrong and I hope it is.

But at 10 days ahead they haven’t failed 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

From my point of view 2 feet of snow would be great to stop people coming down to Cornwall holidaying and spread corona about to a county with about 12 itu beds. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Storm, what storm......big fail for this area, as the pressure remained solid around 990mb all night, no rain and the wind died down rather than increased. Hey ho HOR HAY (Jorge) ..... however I’m sure that the flood affected areas in the north could have done without you....

Same here. Nothing unusual for this time of year . 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Can u have a plume of cold air ? 

[Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4]

Already gusting just under 60mph here in Cornwall. One local weather station has  a 70mph already . 

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

9 minutes ago, rossco89 said:

Got to say, another one that has been overhyped because it was affecting south of the border. Had worse plenty of times and there's never even been as much as a mention of a warning. 

Rugby was good yesterday tho 

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Morning.

Very windy night, but house and garden appear more or less intact!

Still no decision from the local football league(we were discussing their indecision on here yesterday) but I've decided to cancel anyway. If they give me a fine, then they can shove it!

 

Good idea. My kids game was cancelled ages ago but we do play at a. Ground called windy park . We’re at a top of a cliff on the North Cornwall coast . 

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s real! It’s okay they’re staying in an eco-lodge - it’s some ppl volunteering and I was worried they might not realise the severity of the weather  

Sorry I wasn’t taking the p . Good to hear all ok !

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Should I tell the guys in the Wiltshire forests to cut and run? They are planning to stay over tonight but I don’t know what sort of shelter they are in. Bit worried  

Is this real or a spoof ?