mbrothers
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Posts posted by mbrothers
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Forecaster been on the sherry
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No wind overnight and this morning. Since the yellow warning started its barely been windy at all.
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42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Yes indeed, plenty of below average temps on the Ecm 12z with very little mild!..I still think the end of next week could draw arctic air south with a chance of snow showers and with increasing convection, inland showers rather than the wishbone effect we have in winter when showers are draped around the w / n / e coasts with clear sunny weather inland.
I always love your posts but by now , second week of March, saying snow is a possibility at the end of next week doesn’t really do much. It’s been 10 days away since November. This isn’t a dig keep up the good work
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9 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Well I suggest this thread is retired. The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs !
Just because it’s been bad for the uk doesn’t mean it’s been bad for the whole northern hemisphere. I’m sure the Americans aren’t moaning.
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57 minutes ago, West is Best said:
Why? If they had paid attention they wouldn't have been stuck in their cars
As I said snow was never forecast for Cornwall up until it started chucking it down with thick snow . Also most busy people follow the weather on apps and even as it Was white out it still said heavy rain . Also it happened so quick it went from heavy rain to 4 inches of snow in about half an hour. On this occasion I do think it’s a bit harsh to have a go at folk. We don’t all have hindsight unlike you.
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9 minutes ago, fromey said:
Back in the yellow
That looks like it came from the old ceefax pages
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6 minutes ago, West is Best said:
Beautiful scene outside. I just want to state what an incredibly brilliant job the Met Office / BBC / MeteoGroup did in forecasting this so accurately. Remember that the GFS had mostly rain and this was marginal, the Met stuck to their guns and went for it. The marginal nature can be seen in that for 3 hours it rained here in Exeter whilst it snowed 8 miles to the north-west in Crediton. Then even here it turned to snow.
Impressive.
As I said yesterday not sure the people who spent the night in their cars in Cornwall will be clapping the met
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Two different views of snowfall potential, charts of cumulative snowfall until midday tomorrow, from first ICON-EU, then HIRLAM, 18z:
i think looking at the way this has evolved and the radar, suspect though it definitely, I now favour the HIRLAM take.
And here's ARPEGE 18z only out to 10am,
Somewhere in between!
None of them show any snow for Cornwall. Failure it’s chaos here.
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1 minute ago, West is Best said:
Hands together for the Met Office / MeteoGroup / BBC
They got this remarkably spot on.
Completely wrong in Cornwall
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Not one forecast/app got our weather in Newquay right today. Most said heavy rain and 6c . It’s been barely above freezing since lunch and a good dumping of snow.
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2 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:
Cold rain Down here in Cornwall but that was to be expected. The fun and games start later . Good luck guys, I think there’ll be some surprises today.
It’s confusing as on breakfast news carol said something milder (8c) comes in on Thursday then 2ninutes later spotlight weather said Thursday is the day to watch with snow down to all levels possible.
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At least there is chat on here. Over on two it’s a gfuqhgfpjh fest
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9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:It’s now or never if there’s to be any proper cold spell for the majority in the UK. Lack of HLB and heights to the South needs to be reversed ASAP!
Yes it’s the 12th January so a load of nonsense
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Anyone know is that it for Cornwall or anymore expected overnight cheers
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19 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:
Well well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days
Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started
This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange
why don't u try some other hobby.
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18 minutes ago, clactongaz said:
Well if it is coming from the Moscow area it's only 3c tonight . Not cold for them
its not coming tonight
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The berries growth is always interesting. Do you consider the berries have proliferated because the season has caused them to do so, i.e. the warmth and the rainfall has generated the growth?
OR
Do you consider that the berries are natures way of generating a strong fruit, with no knowledge of the coming season, in preparation for some severe weather(not quite sure how it knows but still).
With respect to the bracken, I'd be more inclined to review the possible new growth as a suggestion of impending opportunities, rather than the colour, as nature death of a plant in autumn promotes the colouring.
I go for the first, YET, I am always prepared to listen as to why for the later.
yes I would have thought any fruit was the result of previous weather rather than a prediction on future weather.
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I'm inclined to believe that the above is almost always the case in the UK - i.e a few locations will something worth remembering, but most places will not. Most places saw little in the way of thunderstorms yesterday, but the places that did rather copped it - as is evident by the flooding in Yorkshire and Cambridgeshire.
You're a respected member though, so when you have time, perhaps you would like to entertain us with your thoughts on why you think the above will be the case tomorrow?
Over hyped by who? The bbc , met office ,the daily express or some very junior members on here?
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i take it you dont live in the uk then?Me too, I say bring on hot days and thunderstorms by night
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what if we all open our fridge doors?We can, I have had a good feeling about it all week and that has not changed.... Our temps will fall tonight for all of us so come 10 pm we should see a difference .... Half full mate am I'm staying positive! :-)
Come on Cornwall ... It will happen :-)
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snowing in newquay . bloody cold
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lovely here in newquay too. looks like our chance of snow has been sunk too.A GORGEOUS Day in Falmouth today. Just been involved in the Falmouth Spring Clean. The sun is shining, its warm and a little light breeze. People are happy and the high street is buzzing. Brilliant day.
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yes he goes into much more detail than alan partridge/david braine.Hot news,iv'e spotted a trend in the weather,ian ferguson presenting on spotlight!
Question is, will the trend continue??
Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yellow warning out for Monday now .