[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Was never going to happen, just hype.

Who wants wet snow in March anyway.

Bring on the daffodils and high teens.

 

Thanks for that deep thought

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The high is quite flaccid looking and in the wrong place

Flaccid and in the wrong place. A phrase no man wants to hear 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

So after some good advice about over analysing every run atm from metcast this morning the usual suspects are concerned this evening. Patience grasshopper 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

8 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Well, there is some goodish news, if it floats your boat: most of the models are hinting at something coming from the east or northeast; even though at the moment there's little or no deep cold air within striking distance, but (at least according to the Beeb's European predictions) Moscow will turn a good deal colder later this week. 

Moscow has a high of -6c today 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

it always happens people ..or we alll go over the top..we are not in the right location..central and eastern europe will be the boundary for this cold weather

Tbf you’re doing again but the other way. Has no one got an ounce of patience before reacting anymore?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Solidly mild and zonal looking with a very intact vortex out to D10 and beyond. Stav on CF emphasising how incredibly mild it'll be this coming week as well,

Meanwhile in Siberia it's -58C (nearly -60C!) - this country is a joke for so called 'winter' weather

 

Bizarre post , makes no sense.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

7 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Had a few days from viewing because of the constant hype around the SSW Well currently the 00z offers up nothing special same old as last week. Dull overcast in some areas costal drizzle and above average temperature for February. There is no straws left in the draw to clutch now I think. 

 Have u not read anything about the current situation?

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Indeed. Much better system now thankfully as things evolve. Far easier to get messaging out of severe weather with naming & great for calling back severe weather too, i.e “ remember that storm in February 2020” vs “remember storm Dennis”. 

But no different to what used to be an ordinary winter storm. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

40 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

If the reversal does happen and we get Easterly winds we will likely see out the rest of February without a named storm.

No named storm during winter would be extraordinary!!

Since they named ordinary winter storms 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

30 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Thought this may interest a few... bizarre though 8c! But the white stuff...

It says 2c when it’s snowing 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

24 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Silence speaks a thousand words. Aleutian High, up it goes.

Thanks for keep telling us 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Looking in the reliable time frames it all looks again bog standard weather. Dry is good granted but barring the 10hpa outlook its just an area of high pressure drifting about? Does anyone think cold without snow is like heat without subshine

No

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

So here we are mid Jan and looking for a cold spell in last week of feb or March

Were in a cold spell

[Model discussion highlights]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Cracking chart and people need to look at the bigger picture so i dont see why this thread continually  descends into despondency

Agree but sadly it’s the same folk all the time

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4789111

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Cracking chart and people need to look at the bigger picture so i dont see why this thread continually  descends into despondency

Agree but sadly it’s the same folk all the time

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

10 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

looking like a rubbish cold spell for here just like the last one

Thanks for that 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I admire those on here who post day in day out despite the utter dross this so called winter is producing, it’s not for me thanks muchly but hats off to those who keep plugging away looking for winter!..anyway, the later stages of the GEFS 12z show some interest for us desperate coldies!…I’m not a frequent poster anymore, I can’t stomach these pathetic u k winters but if there’s some cold potential?, I will pop in occasionally!..chow!   

 

Well cheers for that up lifting post. May I suggest you try something else to keep your spirits up 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

Well with no signal for the Euro Heights to bugger off for good. Its difficult to see how we can get out of this rut to a colder pattern that will deliver snow widely to lower ground . This may change come February, but January looks like a write off now,baring a potent pm airflow. However, everytime the GFS teases something colder from the northwest in FI it seems to get diluted closer to the time. 

Fair but he wrote off the next 8 weeks not just this month

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like it's SSW or bust for the remainder of Winter.

 

Hardly . Unless your saying February is a no go as well . After all it is th3 2nd January 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

4 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

A gentle reminder that we say this every year but every year most people come out of winter into spring disappointed 

Fair enough but winter so far has exceeded a lot of folks expectations already. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

A gentle reminder that it’s only December 26th. Just saying.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

The way some posters are talking you would think we’d just had weeks of zonal dross. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

21 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Yep the problem comes though when people cast their subjective wishes onto model outputs and lose objectivity. It happens a lot, this morning being a case in point. 

Fact is, as far as this stage of the model outputs goes, that we're heading for a mild breakdown this weekend and the exciting 0z GFS operational was an outlier.

Back to humdrum UK winter weather: mild and meridional cold interludes. Anything more is straw clutching.

You have just highlighted your own point. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Good nh yes,but massive European high. I think because if it can go wrong for us(snow) it usually does.

He says as large parts of the country have snow

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

4 minutes ago, ScottSnow said:

Not for me. I would love it cold all the way until mid March.

I’m afraid u live in the wrong country