Spah1
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Posts posted by Spah1
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I’m getting a little tired of reading lazy analysis. Probably since around 2013 and various wedge events folks on here throw out ‘it will get corrected South’ whenever we have a low pressure system hitting colder air. I’m no expert but it seems to me that these systems do get corrected South but only when the models underestimate the block or wedge the low pressure system is disrupting against. In Thursdays scenario I can’t see a wedge pushing the LP South that the models are underestimating. Someone with way more knowledge than me may correct me but that’s how I see it.
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MJB Confidence increases into the middle of Feb
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UKMO 168hrs
Nothing happening atm. Really hoping for some charts to chase especially as Feb week 2 is half term.
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@TEITS I can’t see it. You’ll have to get the crayons out and educate us amateurs
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Bored of this Winter now. 1/10. Expectations in December are always falsely high that this year will be different but alas no big freeze just wind and rain.
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13 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Storm Tisha is the last thing folks need after the previous winds, tornados and flooding.
Not good. Its not freezing rain?
Just had a proper look outside. Looks like a mix of hail, ice pellets and snow
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Can’t believe this is actually rain !!!!!
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Can’t see anything more than this.
Nothing coming in behind.
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
Hoping for some snow reporting activity in here this evening, certainly conditions in terms if temps, dewpoints etc all conducive for snow even to sea level at the coast.
I can’t see more than a dusting for the lucky few. If I see falling snow again and get a dusting I’ll be happy.
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GFS day 11ish.
GEM Day 10.-
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Thursdays warning removed which is a little disappointing
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What a waste.
Close to a monumental snow event
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If only it was a bit colder
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Chucking down
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2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
I would be shocked if Thursday didn't deliver for at least Merseyside. Thicknesses 515 dam, T500s -39°C... that should create plenty of instability.
Looks like quite a sharp fall in temperature when wind veers tonight. Will be interesting to look at obs as the sharp gradient comes south.Chris and the Met Office v Kasim.
Doesn’t look much to me on the models.
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Using the UKV I can’t really see why there is a warning for Thursday evening. Looks a bit sparse. Maybe the odd shower.
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I’ve had my little fix the Southerners can have their Easterly.
Only 12 days away.
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This morning
Now
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rapid thaw ongoing
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roll on Thursday
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13 minutes ago, pip22 said:
Starting to snow here in Chorley now.
Keep me informed Pip. Must be marginal
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Just now, Rush2019 said:
A last gasp of big flakes here now before it all moves East.
its going to move south east
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Pembroke Dangler
If it does end up in the channel UKV will be 300 miles out only 100 hrs away.