Spah1
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Posts posted by Spah1
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Easterlies do nothing for me. Just cold and sunny. Hopefully the high can jog on to Greenland and bring in a N’y or NW’ly. Never saw a flake in 2018. I appreciate it’s exciting for those in the East and Central areas. Hopefully if it does verify we can get some systems bumping into the cold air from the West as suggested by Exeter.
This chart however is exciting, maybe we are about to enter into our 1963 ???
and everyone can get some snow days.
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51 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
If UKMO has called it then that would be the most incredible feat for the model.
It looks so complex 120 - 144 ifcthe model was correct last night then it has trumped the rest...
Not really. Only has to beat the ECM
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1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Upgrade on the ICON..slightly more amplified and colder uppers
Now that's a proper GH!
Luke you were asking about different model runs yesterday.
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How do you view the ECM ensembles?
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Been following the models and reading the Mad thread and it looks like a stupendously boring uk high. Bored with the whole saga.
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2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong.
Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore. Anyways happy new year!
They are not going to change their forecast based on a GFS 11 day chart.
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2 minutes ago, MJB said:
This ( 11 DAYS AWAY ) Doesn't look anything like the MET update
So either there has been a hugely different signal today and MET are 24 hours behind or GFS is just throwing something into the mix for discussion.
OMG
You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away.
I can’t read this thread anymore.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
The GFS/ICON/GEM are 3 of the big 5 which can not be discounted. If those 3 showed a strong easterly then would be taken very seriously as possible. Why should this be any different when the solution is not as good.
I really don’t believe they are part of the big 5.
UKMO and ECM are the best models then on the 2nd tear the above 3.
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A couple more added to the ignore list.
Some waffle being written on here.
The clusters Mike referred to are outside the reliable time frame.
Still all to play for
Imagine if the models only went to 168hrs. Would you take this?
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8 minutes ago, johncam said:
Sorry guys , not getting the enthusiasm, what we getting out of that at day 10 , a frost , was expecting more.
What do you think might be 3 days later if it verified like the day 10 chart?
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10 minutes ago, TillyS said:
However much GEM may, or may not, have ‘picked up’ cold spells in the past it’s far too erratic to be permitted to join the elite 3 club imho.
I find balancing the big 3 and sticking to them works pretty well.
As a general sanity measure for UK cold and snow prospects:
1. When 2 of the Big 3 show the same cold synoptic set up, I start looking with interest
2. When all 3 of the Big 3 show it, I sit up
3. When all 3 show the set up inside T168 I start to get excited. Generally speaking until it’s on the UKMO it isn’t worth a raised pulse.
The GFS is not elite.
Way behind ECM
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Not many members going for a reversal now
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One thing is certain.
This could turn out to be the longest chase in history and folks interpreting every GFS run and reading every post in the mod thread are going to suffer from model fatigue.
Chase survival guide.
- Just relax, don’t look too far past 144hrs.
- Remember ECM needs to be on board in any situation.
- Pick some of the more experienced posters who are objective and read them.
- If you are waking up at 4am leaning over to reach for your phone to check the UKMO 144hrs chart, have 2 days off.
- Do not tell family members it’s going to snow until at least 48hrs out, even then think twice.
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24 minutes ago, stewfox said:
That's 3 days ago ?
What’s that got to do with anything?
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1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:
Not to many comments on the GFS12z Think a few would take this at Day Seven.
Watch the latest 10 day trend from Exeter. About three quarters way through 7.08 min they almost dismiss the GFS and make comment to its lower resolution for the UK
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26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Those who think this is a normal zonal type pattern/chart need to look again. It's full of potential and ripe for development to cold! Somethings afoot, and ok it's not going to save Christmas but it could well come to fruition this side of new year!!
I don’t agree. The post almost belongs in the ramp thread. A lot of people are so desperate for winter weather and saying somethings afoot without any evidence would cause Sherlock to turn in his grave.
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For any newbies on here this is the set up that will allow more experienced members to roll out the phrase, ‘wedges make sledges’.
The wedge isn’t in the correct place but you get the idea. The wedge ( small area of high pressure) provides the cold and the low is stretched / compressed against the wedge / block and …………Slides….. hence the term slider. Experienced members then roll out the phrase ‘everything gets corrected South in these sets ups’, which is true!
I think it was 2013 that had a fantastic slider.
The heights over Europe would stop it slide if it happen as per the image but you get the idea.
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Well all very disappointing.
I got sucked in to looking past 5 days and thought we were on for a cold shot from the NW or North but alas just wet, windy and boring.
Time to take a break and look to the new year.
ECM never really showed anything interesting and is proven correct again.
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Got model and thread fatigue already
GFS is garbage.
ECM is the best model but you need UKMO and ECM both on the same hymn sheet for a cold spell.
Really hoping UKMO 144 12z is correct. No deep freeze, but would feel more festive. Without ECM backing it, it ain’t happening. Probably a half way house with chilly weather for Scotland before a more mobile pattern resumes.
Wish SM was still posting to remind folks how poor GFS generally is.-
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Well as Winter and Christmas approaches I have made the fatal error of looking at day 10 charts and reading the MOD thread every day looking for a glimmer of hope for a snowy cold spell.
Now have headache
Not taken the kids sledging in 2 yrs. Only go back to work on the 6th so need new year cheer.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
You’re going to sleep???