Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Spah1

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,632

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Spah1

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    15z UKV has snow showers moving through the region Tuesday morning , nothing spectacular though . A light covering in Merseyside, Greater Manchester, South Lancs and parts of Cumbria, no more than a few cm.  
     

    The trough doesn’t give much to the NW at all, maybe some snow in Cumbria but it dies a death as it moves south, also risk of rain in the Carlisle area. 
     

    Mainly dry Wednesday but some Cheshire gap showers breaking out . Becoming more widespread overnight into Thursday and Thursday night. A covering just about everywhere except the immediate coast. 
     

    image.thumb.png.407362daa56eaf24a44eb1014da6d7d8.png


     

     

    This has saved me writing a post because it’s exactly as I see it. 

    • Like 7

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

    The metoffice warning for Wednesday and Thursday doesn't tally at all with the text forecast for the region which states:

    "Probably drier and sunnier on Wednesday and Thursday. Staying cold with frost and ice"

    Has something changed in the 6 hours since they issued the text forecast?

    This is what is can’t understand. Can’t be sunny and snowing. 

    • Like 6

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The convective signal for Tuesday has somewhat reduced with an intensification signal for the trough from most hi res input. The implications of these are likely to be a shorter time frame of optimal shower conditions early on Tuesday morning. Little marginality is expected away from a warmed surface layer on the exact coast. Some ice pellet mixing is possible later on as the warmer uppers aloft are mixed with the near surface convective zone. I think a good few could see a couple of cm with around a 50% chance of a decently structured streamer forming around the Wirral bay and covering a large portion of the region with 1-2cm of snow with up to 5cm locally in any enhanced streamer activity. This could be further reduced if the trough gains intensity on output.

    The trough is now looking likely to impact the North West during Tuesday with the most optimal conditions for significant snowfall above around 1,000ft however on both arrival of the trough and as it sinks South there is potential for some snow to lower levels. Indications are 5-10cm over Pennine areas with very uncertain accumulations to lower levels, if the cooling on push away of the front is optimal a few cm may occur locally to lower levels, however this is somewhat unlikely. 

    IMG_7577.thumb.png.0d2ed72a33a3770b41eb73d8ac560e23.pngIMG_7574.thumb.png.6c2322a639387a3e62b02534792cc39f.pngIMG_7573.thumb.png.7a2b2abd84e0c767e88a9bb547edca6c.pngIMG_7576.thumb.png.022947bf80d72c3dde3be3d6ef8b28b1.pngIMG_7575.thumb.png.d424bd453ee02c417fd5c08d8d6ab949.png

    Trough seems to be hitting further north and fizzling out by the time it gets down to Lancashire. 

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Derecho said:

    A note for those who are anticipating a dry and cold spell if that GFS transpired...

    image.thumb.png.6751f79daca5947bfe5d487ea8168e2b.png

    This was a chart from the early hours of December 2nd 2021. I was on night shift expecting clear skies for England and Wales as that is what every model had. Unexpectedly a snowy trough formed in Scotland and gave a widespread covering overnight (across quite a large area as well)

    The first model to pick up on it was the ECM 18z the night before. It wasn't a pleasant night shift.

    Yes cold and dry is what the models are showing but that doesn't equate to reality.

    IMG_7555.thumb.png.f9d8246e99b73376bc34a8a8e7fd8f89.png

    Cold and dry? Rubbish

    • Like 2

    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    I seem to remember 17th Dec 2010 wasn't forecast much either. We  knew it would be very cold with some snow showers but I'm sure that the sort of event that transpired wasn't forecast at least until a couple of hours away when I remember the TAFs started picking up on it. Can't really remember what people were saying in here apart from @Backtrack eating his socks around that time.

    19th December Red warning. Steamer straight into Lancashire. 

    • Like 8
×
×
  • Create New...