Spah1

You’re going to sleep???

Easterlies do nothing for me. Just cold and sunny. Hopefully the high can jog on to Greenland and bring in a N’y or NW’ly. Never saw a flake in 2018. I appreciate it’s exciting for those in the East and Central areas. Hopefully if it does verify we can get some systems bumping into the cold air from the West as suggested by Exeter. This chart however is exciting, maybe we are about to enter into our 1963 ??? and everyone can get some snow days.

Not really. Only has to beat the ECM

Luke you were asking about different model runs yesterday.

How do you view the ECM ensembles?

Been following the models and reading the Mad thread and it looks like a stupendously boring uk high. Bored with the whole saga.

It was wrong in the early Dec cold spell. The ECM was never on board and proved to be correct.

They are not going to change their forecast based on a GFS 11 day chart.

OMG You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away. I can’t read this thread anymore.

I really don’t believe they are part of the big 5. UKMO and ECM are the best models then on the 2nd tear the above 3.

Oh come on NWS. GFS and ICON poor models. UKMO and ECM will lead the way.

A couple more added to the ignore list. Some waffle being written on here. The clusters Mike referred to are outside the reliable time frame. Still all to play for Imagine if the models only went to 168hrs. Would you take this?

What do you think might be 3 days later if it verified like the day 10 chart?

No thoughts. it’s gfs 10 days out !!!!!!! more chance of Eric Bristow winning the darts championship than it verifying like that.

The GFS is not elite. Way behind ECM

Not many members going for a reversal now

One thing is certain. This could turn out to be the longest chase in history and folks interpreting every GFS run and reading every post in the mod thread are going to suffer from model fatigue. Chase survival guide. - Just relax, don’t look too far past 144hrs. - Remember ECM needs to be on board in any situation. - Pick some of the more experienced posters who are objective and read them. - If you are waking up at 4am leaning over to reach for your phone to check the UKMO 144hrs chart, have 2 days off. - Do not tell family members it’s going to snow until at least 48hrs out, even then think twice.

What’s that got to do with anything?

Watch the latest 10 day trend from Exeter. About three quarters way through 7.08 min they almost dismiss the GFS and make comment to its lower resolution for the UK

I don’t agree. The post almost belongs in the ramp thread. A lot of people are so desperate for winter weather and saying somethings afoot without any evidence would cause Sherlock to turn in his grave.

For any newbies on here this is the set up that will allow more experienced members to roll out the phrase, ‘wedges make sledges’. The wedge isn’t in the correct place but you get the idea. The wedge ( small area of high pressure) provides the cold and the low is stretched / compressed against the wedge / block and …………Slides….. hence the term slider. Experienced members then roll out the phrase ‘everything gets corrected South in these sets ups’, which is true! I think it was 2013 that had a fantastic slider. The heights over Europe would stop it slide if it happen as per the image but you get the idea.

Well all very disappointing. I got sucked in to looking past 5 days and thought we were on for a cold shot from the NW or North but alas just wet, windy and boring. Time to take a break and look to the new year. ECM never really showed anything interesting and is proven correct again.

Got model and thread fatigue already GFS is garbage. ECM is the best model but you need UKMO and ECM both on the same hymn sheet for a cold spell. Really hoping UKMO 144 12z is correct. No deep freeze, but would feel more festive. Without ECM backing it, it ain’t happening. Probably a half way house with chilly weather for Scotland before a more mobile pattern resumes. Wish SM was still posting to remind folks how poor GFS generally is.

Well as Winter and Christmas approaches I have made the fatal error of looking at day 10 charts and reading the MOD thread every day looking for a glimmer of hope for a snowy cold spell. Now have headache Not taken the kids sledging in 2 yrs. Only go back to work on the 6th so need new year cheer.